November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[Cromagnum]

Enough with the weekend rain already. I have been unable to mow my yard for 3 weeks as it is, and it looks like I still have two more weeks to wait. With the time change, it's already night by the time I get home so weekday yard work is not an option.

With all the recent 80 degree weather days, it's already a jungle.

[JamieP]

^^same for us, the weeds are knee high already! And not to mention the mosquitoes. Today would have been a good day to stay home and tidy up the lawn : D

[snowman65]

Is it too early to take a shot at Thanksgiving weather??

[srainhoutx]

Is it too early to take a shot at Thanksgiving weather??

Yes it is. With that said the Weather Prediction Center explains why beyond Day 6 is rather uncertain...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

VALID 12Z THU NOV 12 2015 - 12Z MON NOV 16 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS STRAIGHT-FORWARD DAYS 3-5/THU-SAT...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH
CONTRIBUTES TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND A CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRONG FOR THESE SCENARIOS.

FROM DAY 6/SUN ONWARD HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW SOME
INTERACTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SPLITTING FLOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE SPLIT COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. SOME SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 06Z GFS AND 06Z GEFS MEMBERS
ARE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN. PRELIMINARILY...THE LARGER SOLUTION
ENVELOPE CAPTURED BUY THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS PREFERABLE OVER THE
SMALLER SOLUTION ENVELOPE. ANOTHER REASON FOR USING THE LARGER
SOLUTION ENVELOPE IS IN CONSIDERATION OF PATTERN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION
OF TS KATE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CYCLOGENESIS TO
WEST OF KATE...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INFLUENCE THE
UPSTREAM FLOW. THUS...THE MODEL PREFERENCE IS FOR A MIXTURE OF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DAYS 3-5 5 BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z GEFS MEAN. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH DAYS 3/4...AVERAGE DAY 5...AND LOW DAYS 6/7.

JAMES

[Katdaddy]

The severe weather threat looks to remain well N of SE TX tomorrow afternoon as the front moves rapidly across TX. Expect some scattered storms ahead of the front. Low precip chances may return beginning late Saturday after some nice cooler weather to end the week Rain increase Sunday with the approach of the next trough. TS Kate is forecast to become a late season hurricane before encountering cooler waters in the Atlantic and remain a fish storm.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit more concerned regarding the weekend/early next week strong storm system. The 'wetter' Euro is slower ejecting a deep storm across N Texas and Oklahoma Sunday through Tuesday of next week and the 06Z GFS took a big step away from the previously progressive GFS therefore less wet solutions it had been suggesting. We are getting to that time of year when a bit of blocking between Greenland and the Davis Strait into NE Canada cuts a deepening trough across the West and Central United States as these deep low pressure systems wrap up and head toward the Great Lakes pulling down a lot of chilly air building up in Western Canada in their wake. The weekend storm is beginning to look very deep and further South and possibly a sub 996mb surface low over N Central Texas into Oklahoma with a organizing Coastal low/trough pumping copious moisture out of the Western Gulf as the Western trough tap very deep tropical moisture from the Eastern and Central Pacific. Could be mighty wet around the Eastern half of Texas late Saturday through next Tuesday with yet another storm approaching from the West later next week.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests the CAP will break tomorrow night as the cold front nears SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

[cperk]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

srainhoutx this is music to my ears.

[srainhoutx]

I know some of you have and a lot of folks are wondering what the busy Thanksgiving Holiday period may bring weatherwise across the United States. It is looking like a very cold and stormy pattern will continue particularly out West and possibly into the Southern Plains. In the cold sector, there appears to be a lot of snow developing across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. In the warm sector, heavy rainfall with possibly severe weather episodes looks to continue.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated QPF is 'sniffing' out another potential heavy rainfall and severe episode later this weekend into early next week. Notice the Pacific NW QPF is showing some 16+ inches which as these powerful bowling ball upper lows persistently dropping South into an ever deepening Western Trough, look for powerful storm systems to organize over New Mexico and NW Texas possibly extending throughout the remainder of November into early December...at least.

[BlueJay]

T'is the season...

[Ptarmigan]

The afternoon Updated QPF is 'sniffing' out another potential heavy rainfall and severe episode later this weekend into early next week. Notice the Pacific NW QPF is showing some 16+ inches which as these powerful bowling ball upper lows persistently dropping South into an ever deepening Western Trough, look for powerful storm systems to organize over New Mexico and NW Texas possibly extending throughout the remainder of November into early December...at least.

The heavy rain over Pacific Northwest is Mt. Olympus. It is the wettest area in the Lower 48.

Olympic Mountains
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Mountains

They see 240 inches of rain a year on average!

[Ptarmigan]

Eurasian Snow Cover Variability and Links with Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Their Potential Use in Seasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STI ... 062211.pdf

What role Siberian snow cover has on cold winter in America.

[Katdaddy]

Much respect on this Veterans Day to everyone who has served the USA for protection and freedom. Many thanks for your sacrifice.

Fast moving cold front to move across SE TX and offshore this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of front and might be more likely along the coastal areas. The SPC has a marginal risk area across NE, E, SE, and portions of S Central TX so a few isolated strong thunderstorms may be possible depending on the strength of the CAP. After the frontal passage SE TX looks to have some cool days and nights with partly cloudy skies through Saturday evening. Slight rain chances look to enter the picture Saturday night ahead of the next storm system and front. Much colder weather may arrive next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Several storm systems to affect the region over the next week.

Strong moisture advection overnight has raised dewpoints by a solid 10-15 degrees across the region as the next storm system rapidly approaches TX this morning. Impressive mid November storm system will intensify over the Midwest today pushing cold front into this increasing moist and unstable air mass over SE TX. Strong jet stream dynamics will come into play mainly north of SE TX this afternoon and early evening allowing the capping inversion (mid level warm temperatures) to erode. Lift from the front will likely help to force surface parcels through the weakening cap by late afternoon allowing the rapid development of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Shear profiles will be favorable for damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes especially north of I-10. Expect a line of thunderstorms (possibly broken) to cross the area between 600pm and midnight.

Front will clear the coast before sunrise on Thursday with northerly flow in place and a much drier and cooler air mass. Active sub-tropical jet overhead may maintain a scattered high level deck with filtered sun both Thursday and Friday. Clouds return late Friday and…getting ready…clouds will likely remain in place for much of the next week.

Prolonged active weather event starting to shape up for next week with significantly colder temperatures and extended wet weather. Sub-tropical jet stream becomes increasingly active over the weekend. Models are pushing back the onset of rainfall more into later on Sunday now versus Saturday and this seems reasonable given the pattern setup with a slow moving upper level storm system well to our west. Will bring back rain chances and humid conditions on Sunday and increase rain chances more Monday-Tuesday. A powerful cold front looks to cross the region late Tuesday with temperatures tumbling behind the boundary as cold air builds over the northern Rockies. Upper flow looks to remain out of the SW with yet another storm system dropping into the SW US by the end of next week keeping a wet and cold pattern in place. Latest GFS guidance has a high of 58 in Houston next Wednesday.

[tireman4]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. ANY
SUNSHINE WILL AID IN HEATING SO WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. RECORD HIGH AT GLS TODAY IS ONLY 81
DEGREES SO THAT RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY. SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SE TX. 12Z
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP ACROSS SE TX AND MOST OF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CAP ERODING BETWEEN 21-00Z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE LAST 24 HRS FOR SE TX. SEEING GENERALLY
+10F TEMP/DEWPT CHANGES (WITH A FEW SITES TO ALMOST +20F). ALL OF
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA WILL BE
ERODING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HELPED ALONG BY THE PASSAGE OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THESE S/WVS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SHRA/
TSRAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW TO THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CLEARING WITH FROPA. WEAK/FLAT
UPPER RIDGING TO KEEP THINGS QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPS REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG RANGE PROGS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH THE UPCOMING PAT-
TERN. WHILE WE ARE STILL SEEING A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POPS (RETURNING STARTING SAT
NIGHT ON INTO SUN)... MODELS ALSO REMAINING FOCUSED ON THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM. GFS KEEPING WITH A SLOWER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE ECMWF WITH THESE RUNS. LEANING MORE WITH THE
GFS ATTM (GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY/SLOWER TIMING) IN THE EXTENDED...
BUT SHOULD IT VERIFY WE COULD BE IN SOME CHILLY TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
41

MARINE...
WINDS PICKING UP AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND HAVE SCECS FOR ALL
WATERS...MAY NEED AN SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS COULD
INCREASE THIS MORNING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND BE GUSTY. WINDS THEN
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SETX
LIKELY REACHING THE COAST AROUND 1-3 AM THURSDAY. MODERATE TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE
HOISTED SCA FLAGS FOR THE GULF WATERS AND SCEC FOR BAYS. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEM POSSIBLE IF THEY CAN SURPASS
THE PROMINENT CAP AROUND 825MB. BY 3-6 AM THURSDAY MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR COASTAL WATERS WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LESSER CAP SHOULD EXIST.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SETX THU-SAT MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT NE
FLOW OVER THE WATERS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15-22 KNOTS. WINDS THEN
START TO VEER AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CONCERN FOR A STRONGER AND
MUCH MORE POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THIS EVENT AND APPEARS TO
BE NARROWING IT DOWN. COULD BE SOME VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND MAY BE GETTING CLOSE TO GALES WITH ITS PASSAGE.
45

AVIATION...
OVC 4000-5000FT DECK WITH AN MVFR DECK FORMING...DWH-6R3
NORTHWARD SO FAR BUT IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTHWARD TOWARD
MORNING. THIS MVFR DECK SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z AND
MAY GO WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS...TDWR
/WSR-88D SHOWING LLWS PATTERN AT 1000-1800FT 30-42 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SSW. MODELS INDICATING THAT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE AND VEER
FURTHER BY MID MORNING WHILE INCREASING IN STRENGTH THEN DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 15-21Z SW GUSTY WINDS PREVAILING. FOR NOW WILL
CARRY VCSH AND HOLD OFF ON VCTS UNTIL 00-06Z...WITH A PROB30 OR
TEMPO FOR PRECIP ALONG FROPA. NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND VFR CIGS...PERHAPS BKN060- 080 POST FRONTAL.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 53 71 51 64 / 50 20 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 82 59 72 52 67 / 30 60 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 65 70 60 68 / 20 60 0 0 10

&&

[ticka1]

Being I work downtown - went and watch some of the parade - boy is it windy out there. With that note I would like to thank all the veterans who are members of this page - Happy Veterans Days and THANK YOU for your service. All and one.

[srainhoutx]

The latest 12Z guidance continues to advertise a very intense cold core upper low and a strong surface low developing across New Mexico and N Central Texas early next week. Typically neutral to negative tilt troughs with its attending pesky very robust cold core low create a myriad of weather issues from wrap around wintry mischief this time of year to severe weather in the warm sector. We are going to need to monitor develops the next several days as there could be heavy rainfall, all modes of severe weather and possibly some sleet/snow across New Mexico, West, NW and potentially N Central Texas into Oklahoma beginning Sunday and continuing into mid next week.

[snowman65]

DARK BLUE = I like!