October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal
I don't want to be rude but this has to stop. I check this forum regularly and seeing this stuff above is just complete nonsense.
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Andrew
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davidiowx wrote:I don't want to be rude but this has to stop. I check this forum regularly and seeing this stuff above is just complete nonsense.
Taking care of it. Remember everyone keep posts factual and informative. Especially at this time where many are relying on the board for information.
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GFS seems to be focusing-in along the coast/1st tier of inland counties. To be honest, I am a little skeptical of it being concentrated that far SE. We're talking tens of miles by now, but I see the center of Patrica's remnants tracking just slightly NW of there.
I think Houston, Harris County, and surrounding areas need to very keep a close watch on this.
I think Houston, Harris County, and surrounding areas need to very keep a close watch on this.
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Baseballdude2915
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- Location: Dickinson, Tx
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Andrew wrote:00z GFS
Even though it's probably the last model run before we enter nowcast mode, that's impressive.
Looking forward to following the board for another event, good to see this place active after all the years.
That 00Z run is not a good sign.
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
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HGX DISCO:
MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IS NORTH/WEST OF SE TX. SO FOR US LOCALLY
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. ON SATURDAY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX. ADJUSTED THE
PRECIP AMOUNT FORECAST SOME TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST MODELS AND
WPC FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE COASTAL AND 1ST INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE UPPER
SE TX COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE IMPRESSIVE INFLOW AND
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS DURING THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL AROUND 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS IN THIS AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA...CELL TRAINING
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CREATE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREAWIDE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING WHAT THIS
AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF OFF TO OUR NW THIS EVE IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. 33
MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IS NORTH/WEST OF SE TX. SO FOR US LOCALLY
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. ON SATURDAY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX. ADJUSTED THE
PRECIP AMOUNT FORECAST SOME TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST MODELS AND
WPC FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE COASTAL AND 1ST INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE UPPER
SE TX COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE IMPRESSIVE INFLOW AND
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS DURING THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL AROUND 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS IN THIS AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA...CELL TRAINING
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CREATE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREAWIDE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING WHAT THIS
AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF OFF TO OUR NW THIS EVE IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. 33
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nuby3
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6-15 inches radar indicated for a large area between Dallas and Waco. radar indicates 2-4 inches of accumulation in the last hour sw of Waco. not rates but actual accumulation. not looking good folkies
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srainhoutx
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The 00Z Global and Mesoscale guidance continues to suggest a worrisome forecast across Central, SE, East Texas and Western/SW Louisiana will unfold later today into Monday. Patricia, although well inland continues to produce winds near 100 MPH with higher gusts as it moves ENE over the mountains of Central Mexico. A cold front is slowly advancing SE over NW/N Central Texas with a stationary boundary across Central Texas extending to near Shreveport where heavy training rainfall has been occurring. Rainfall rates nearing 3 inches per hour is leading to life threatening Flash Flooding where training storms exist. Virtually all of the guidance develop a coastal low later this evening across S Texas as the mid/upper level vorticity associated with Patricia approaches S Central Texas. The combination of Patricia remnants, a slow moving frontal boundary and a surface low reflection near the Texas Gulf Coast that takes about 24 to 36 hours to move just S of Lake Charles is a recipe for a very heavy multi hour rainfall event with convective elements. Rainfall rates of 3+ inches per hour is possible anywhere across the Austin to College Station, Houston, Beaumont, Lufkin and Lake Charles area on N and E. Not going to pinpoint who will get the heaviest rainfall, but locations along and S of the I-35 Corridor could see rainfall totals nearing 12+ inches the next 36 to 48 hours.
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER A BROAD SWATH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THU/FRI HAD FOCUSED
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET...DUMPING 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WILL
EVOLVE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON SATURDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PATRICIA AND A SOUTHERN STREAM BAROCLINIC TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT
OF NEW MEXICO ACT TO INDUCE BROAD CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTH TEXAS. THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED IN THE 00Z BROWNSVILLE TX
SOUNDING WAS WELL INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE DATE...ALTHOUGH
SIMILAR VALUES HAD BEEN MEASURED AS LATE AS OCTOBER 16TH WITHIN
THE PERIOD OF RECORD. THE MOISTURE QUALITY IS OF GREAT
CONCERN...AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE FORMIDABLE AND SUSTAINED
OVER A LENGTHY DURATION AS THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ENHANCE INFLOW OFF THE GULF...AND YIELD
NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS TO MERGE WITH LARGER SCALE THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEMS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH
ONLY SLOW NET MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE LOCATIONS OF
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WELL
CLUSTERED WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM THE VICINITY OF AUSTIN
AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF SAN ANTONIO TO VICTORIA TO HOUSTON.
MODERATE RISK SURROUNDS THE HIGH RISK AREA...AND EXTENDS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE WRF-ARW AND GFS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF HEAVIER RAIN INTO LA...BUT THE WPC
FORECAST HOLDS BACK A BIT...EXPECTING THAT COLD POOLS WILL BE VERY
WEAK IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM TAKES ON STRONGER BAROCLINIC CHARACTER
AND PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.
THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TX WERE NOT GIVEN ANY WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST AS THE LAND IS LIKELY
TO BE OVERWHELMED BY INTENSE RAIN RATES AND AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST. RAIN RATES IN THE WRF-ARW JUST START TO TOUCH UPON 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...AND GIVEN THE SITUATION IS SO FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING 4 INCH PER
HOUR RATES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.
THANKS TO WFO HGX...CRP...EWX...AND FWD FOR COORDINATION ON THE
HIGH RISK ISSUANCE
A quick look at the next weekend forecast suggests another potential heavy rainfall event is possible as yet another deep Western trough develops and moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with the remnants of Central Pacific Hurricane Olaf move in our general direction.
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER A BROAD SWATH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THU/FRI HAD FOCUSED
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET...DUMPING 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WILL
EVOLVE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON SATURDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PATRICIA AND A SOUTHERN STREAM BAROCLINIC TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT
OF NEW MEXICO ACT TO INDUCE BROAD CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTH TEXAS. THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED IN THE 00Z BROWNSVILLE TX
SOUNDING WAS WELL INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE DATE...ALTHOUGH
SIMILAR VALUES HAD BEEN MEASURED AS LATE AS OCTOBER 16TH WITHIN
THE PERIOD OF RECORD. THE MOISTURE QUALITY IS OF GREAT
CONCERN...AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE FORMIDABLE AND SUSTAINED
OVER A LENGTHY DURATION AS THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ENHANCE INFLOW OFF THE GULF...AND YIELD
NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS TO MERGE WITH LARGER SCALE THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEMS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH
ONLY SLOW NET MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE LOCATIONS OF
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WELL
CLUSTERED WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM THE VICINITY OF AUSTIN
AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF SAN ANTONIO TO VICTORIA TO HOUSTON.
MODERATE RISK SURROUNDS THE HIGH RISK AREA...AND EXTENDS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE WRF-ARW AND GFS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF HEAVIER RAIN INTO LA...BUT THE WPC
FORECAST HOLDS BACK A BIT...EXPECTING THAT COLD POOLS WILL BE VERY
WEAK IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM TAKES ON STRONGER BAROCLINIC CHARACTER
AND PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.
THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TX WERE NOT GIVEN ANY WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST AS THE LAND IS LIKELY
TO BE OVERWHELMED BY INTENSE RAIN RATES AND AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST. RAIN RATES IN THE WRF-ARW JUST START TO TOUCH UPON 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...AND GIVEN THE SITUATION IS SO FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING 4 INCH PER
HOUR RATES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.
THANKS TO WFO HGX...CRP...EWX...AND FWD FOR COORDINATION ON THE
HIGH RISK ISSUANCE
A quick look at the next weekend forecast suggests another potential heavy rainfall event is possible as yet another deep Western trough develops and moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with the remnants of Central Pacific Hurricane Olaf move in our general direction.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
451 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 240850Z - 241450Z
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF PATRICIA AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF PATRICIA ALREADY THROUGH
CENTRAL PLATEAU OF MEXICO STARTING TO BRING BROAD SCALE ASCENT
WITH VAST AREA OF DPVA. ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM BROAD
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS OF 140KT JET (PER SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
IN NE OK) AS WELL AS CONVERGING FRONTAL ZONES SUPPORT THIS LARGE
SCALE UVV ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONTS...SATURATED PROFILES TO NEARLY 400 MB WITH AMPLE
TPWS EXCEEDING 2 TO 2.5" WILL BE ADVECTED WITH LIMITED BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WIDE 20-30 KT 20-30KT 85H TO 7H
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.0"/HR ARE LIKELY WITH VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH TIME TO ALLOW FOR A BROAD ZONE OF
2-4" FROM THE BIG BEND/DRT EASTWARD TOWARD A WEAK SURFACE
INFLECTION NEAR BMQ...CURRENTLY.
AT THIS SURFACE LOW...A N-S BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE WEST GULF
COAST DROPS SOUTH TO BRO. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS AN
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/ENHANCE FROM SWLY FLOW FROM PATRICIA. WITH THE BULK OF
THE CLOUD BARING LAYER GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...THIS CONVECTION
WITH ITS 2-2.5"/HR RATES WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME SMALL CORRIDOR
FROM BRO TO ALI TO SAT WITH TOTALS OF 2-4" EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
6HRS OR SO. ONCE THIS CHANNEL OF ENHANCED CONVECTION INSECTS THE
STATIONARY FRONT...INCREASED MERGERS AND RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS
EXPECTED WITH RATES OF 3"/HR POSSIBLE AND A ZONE OF EXTREME
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 6" WITH LIKELY LOCALIZE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. THIS IS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR...CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL.
WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY
STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL COMPOUND ALREADY SATURATED AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE DFW METRO...MAINTAINING FLASH FLOOD/PROLONGED
FLOODING CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.
GALLINA
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Corsicana has already had 17.72" of rainfall...... Waco is at 8.72". 7.03" at DFW
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
HGX issues Coastal Flood Warning
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOODING DURING WEEKEND HIGH TIDES...
...HIGH WEEKEND RIP CURRENT RISK...
.A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER LEVELS AND WAVE RUN UP WILL
APPROACH AND OR SLIGHTLY OVER WASH THE LOWEST LYING ROADWAYS
ALONG THE COAST AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS INCLUDES PARTS OF
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT HIGHWAY 87 AT HIGHWAY 124...NEAR THE
LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING...THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
PARTS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
TXZ213-214-236>238-242100-
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151025T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.A.0001.151025T0000Z-151026T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.W.0001.151024T1500Z-151026T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* COASTAL FLOODING...WEEKEND WATER LEVELS ABOVE MEAN LOW LOW
WATER COULD EXCEED 4.8 FEET DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL CREATE WATER RUN-UP ISSUES ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT
HIGHWAY 87....THE HIGHWAY 87 AND HIGHWAY 124 INTERSECTION...
NEAR THE LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING... THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN
BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SECTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM SATURDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* IMPACTS...MORE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH ALONG
THE LOWEST AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ROADS MAY DEPOSIT DEBRIS ON
THE THESE ROADS AND MAKE TRAVEL MORE DIFFICULT. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS...JETTIES AND ROCK GROINS
WILL MAKE SWIMMING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVEN TO THE MOST MOST
EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. THE GALVESTON BEACH PATROL ADVISES TO
ONLY GO INTO A DEPTH OF YOUR KNEES IF YOU ARE A CAPABLE
SWIMMER. OTHERWISE DO NOT ENTER THE WATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE SURF ZONE.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL...
FLAGS AND SIGNS. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.
THE WEEKEND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
&&
...WATER LEVELS AND TIDE TIMES...
NOTE...THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE TIMES AND FORECAST LEVELS ARE
REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DATUM.
LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED TIDE TYPE
WATER LEVEL
MORGANS POINT...
SAT 7:09 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:16 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 6:52 PM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:02 AM 2.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:10 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:34 PM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:18 PM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
MANCHESTER...
SAT 7:44 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:54 PM 2.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 7:46 PM 3.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:17 AM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:02 AM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:22 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:52 PM 3.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
ROLLOVER PASS...
SAT 5:16 AM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:04 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:27 PM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:12 AM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:27 AM 3.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:29 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:46 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 5:45 AM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:02 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:24 PM 2.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 11:18 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:31 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:17 PM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:15 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
SAT 7:39 AM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:20 PM 3.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:55 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:07 AM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:19 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:34 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:55 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...
SAT 7:31 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:42 PM 4.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:41 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:03 AM 4.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:06 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:48 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:44 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
FREEPORT USCG...
SAT 7:53 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:33 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:58 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:01 AM 4.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:18 AM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:44 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 9:08 PM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
PORT OCONNOR...
SAT 5:00 AM 3.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 10:11 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:52 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 9:25 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:25 AM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:24 AM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:51 PM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:23 PM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOODING DURING WEEKEND HIGH TIDES...
...HIGH WEEKEND RIP CURRENT RISK...
.A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER LEVELS AND WAVE RUN UP WILL
APPROACH AND OR SLIGHTLY OVER WASH THE LOWEST LYING ROADWAYS
ALONG THE COAST AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS INCLUDES PARTS OF
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT HIGHWAY 87 AT HIGHWAY 124...NEAR THE
LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING...THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
PARTS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
TXZ213-214-236>238-242100-
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151025T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.A.0001.151025T0000Z-151026T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.W.0001.151024T1500Z-151026T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* COASTAL FLOODING...WEEKEND WATER LEVELS ABOVE MEAN LOW LOW
WATER COULD EXCEED 4.8 FEET DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL CREATE WATER RUN-UP ISSUES ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT
HIGHWAY 87....THE HIGHWAY 87 AND HIGHWAY 124 INTERSECTION...
NEAR THE LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING... THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN
BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SECTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM SATURDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* IMPACTS...MORE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH ALONG
THE LOWEST AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ROADS MAY DEPOSIT DEBRIS ON
THE THESE ROADS AND MAKE TRAVEL MORE DIFFICULT. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS...JETTIES AND ROCK GROINS
WILL MAKE SWIMMING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVEN TO THE MOST MOST
EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. THE GALVESTON BEACH PATROL ADVISES TO
ONLY GO INTO A DEPTH OF YOUR KNEES IF YOU ARE A CAPABLE
SWIMMER. OTHERWISE DO NOT ENTER THE WATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE SURF ZONE.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL...
FLAGS AND SIGNS. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.
THE WEEKEND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
&&
...WATER LEVELS AND TIDE TIMES...
NOTE...THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE TIMES AND FORECAST LEVELS ARE
REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DATUM.
LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED TIDE TYPE
WATER LEVEL
MORGANS POINT...
SAT 7:09 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:16 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 6:52 PM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:02 AM 2.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:10 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:34 PM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:18 PM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
MANCHESTER...
SAT 7:44 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:54 PM 2.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 7:46 PM 3.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:17 AM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:02 AM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:22 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:52 PM 3.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
ROLLOVER PASS...
SAT 5:16 AM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:04 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:27 PM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:12 AM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:27 AM 3.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:29 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:46 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 5:45 AM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:02 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:24 PM 2.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 11:18 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:31 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:17 PM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:15 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
SAT 7:39 AM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:20 PM 3.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:55 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:07 AM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:19 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:34 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:55 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...
SAT 7:31 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:42 PM 4.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:41 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:03 AM 4.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:06 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:48 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:44 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
FREEPORT USCG...
SAT 7:53 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:33 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:58 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:01 AM 4.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:18 AM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:44 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 9:08 PM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
PORT OCONNOR...
SAT 5:00 AM 3.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 10:11 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:52 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 9:25 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:25 AM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:24 AM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:51 PM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:23 PM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
each of these start as-of different days/times, you can check their radar site for the times:
http://radar.weather.gov/index_lite.htm
more options: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ and http://www.harriscountyfws.org/
my area has had less than 1/10" in the last month, so I'm looking forward to the rain
http://radar.weather.gov/index_lite.htm
more options: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ and http://www.harriscountyfws.org/
my area has had less than 1/10" in the last month, so I'm looking forward to the rain
The Wide World of SPoRT blog: https://nasasport.wordpress.com/2015/10 ... rn-plains/
interesting blog on recent weather in TX, especially the soil moisture loop - much needed rain, just be smart about getting out & about, if you must
Image 3. SPoRT LIS 0-10 cm Relative Soil Moisture, 21 UTC 21 Oct to 15 UTC 23 Oct 2015.
interesting blog on recent weather in TX, especially the soil moisture loop - much needed rain, just be smart about getting out & about, if you must
Image 3. SPoRT LIS 0-10 cm Relative Soil Moisture, 21 UTC 21 Oct to 15 UTC 23 Oct 2015.
image from http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... m=Patricia
compliments of Chris Hollis, http://tropicalglobe.com/
The manually created image below contains all the reconnaissance that our site processed for this storm.
compliments of Chris Hollis, http://tropicalglobe.com/
The manually created image below contains all the reconnaissance that our site processed for this storm.
Erig Berger will be missed at The Houston Chronicle, but you can still follow him at https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX and https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace
his latest blog on our local weather: http://spacecityweather.com/potentially ... y-morning/
his latest blog on our local weather: http://spacecityweather.com/potentially ... y-morning/
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