October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoints hit 27° in CLL area, 19°F in Caldwell. Anything from a Caldwell to Madisonville line and north will be a tinderbox as ground foliage desiccates in the next few days. Ground water is lacking. Fortunately winds are light, but fire danger is very real.

I'm seeing tree carcasses on the curbs on a near daily basis. Fingers crossed for that flip next midweek.

[Katdaddy]

Hot sunny days with 90s and cool nights with mid 60s the next several days across SE TX. Some inland areas will see near record highs in the mid 90s and lows in the upper 50s thanks to dry airmass across the area. Hopefully increasing rain chances materialize next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Record heat likely this afternoon with continued elevated fire weather conditions.

Extremely dry air mass resides over SE TX except for the coastal counties of Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda where dewpoints remain elevated (60’s and 70’s) versus the 40’s and 50’s inland. Weak northerly flow will begin to mix down drier air aloft after about 900am and expect dewpoints to fall and RD to fall as well as surface temperatures rapidly heat. Strong heating will allow current temperatures in the 50’s to rise rapidly into the mid 80’s by noon and the low to mid 90’s by mid to late afternoon. Record high of 92 at BUSH IAH looks to fall along with 95 at College Station.

Similar conditions are expected on Thursday and again on Friday with no chance for rainfall.

Fire Weather:
Conditions are elevated to near critical again today and Thursday as a very dry air mass remains in place over top of extremely dry fuels. Areas north of HWY 105 show KBDI values over 700 and RH is these areas this afternoon will tumble to 10-20%...which is a little better than yesterday. Winds today will be light and variable which should allow for slower fire growth and better containment operations. 10-hr fuels are showing moisture levels of 1-8% across much of SE/C TX with 100-hr fuel dryness dry to critically dry in most areas NW of US 59.

Slightly more moist air mass is expected on Thursday with afternoon RH of 20-40% over the region. However winds will be a little stronger from the east and southeast on Thursday and this coupled with poor vegetation conditions over our NW/N counties could result in more fire starts and quicker spread.

Will need to keep a close eye on Saturday as the next cold front sweeps across the region. Latest model guidance is showing increased NNE/NE winds of 10-15mph Saturday afternoon with another dry air mass overspreading the region. Dewpoints expected to fall into the 40/50’s again Saturday afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80’s which would support afternoon RH in the 30-40% range. Strong winds are certainly more concerning even though RH values would be higher than yesterday.

Residents should be extremely cautious with any outdoor fire and follow all countywide burn bans to help prevent the start and spread of wildfires.

Hidden Pines Fire (Smithville): Fire is reported 40% contained this morning and has burned 275 acres in heavy brush on the north/northeast side of Buescher State Park.

Fire 4533 (Waller County between FM 1488 and Joseph Rd southwest of Magnolia): Fire burned 25 acres overnight. Fire is 100% contained.

The following link provides information to ongoing active fire information from the Texas Forest Service:
http://tfseoc.tamu.edu/dispatchfield/tr ... fault.aspx

Long Range:
Potentially significant pattern change toward the middle of next week could bring the region widespread rainfall. A trough over low pressure will develop over the SW US which will in turn begin to break down the upper level ridging that has established over TX. Additionally, moisture will increase from both the Gulf of Mexico and possibly from a tropical system in the eastern Pacific Ocean. For now will start to increase rain chances on Tuesday to about 30% although the bulk of any major rainfall appears to be next Wednesday or Thursday. This system may also allow a fairly strong cold front to cross the region with a more significant cool down. Most importantly, this appears to be a sustained pattern change toward wetter and cooler weather into late October.

Record Highs Yesterday (10-13-15):

Galveston: 90 (broke record of 87 in 2014)
BUSH IAH: 95 (broke record of 94 in 1991)
Hobby: 94 (broke record of 93 in 1954)
Corpus Christi: 94 (broke record of 93 in 1991)
McAllen: 98 (broke record of 97 in 1962)
Brownsville: 95 (tied record of 95 in 1993)
Waco: 98 (broke record of 95 in 1954)
Austin: 99 (broke record of 98 in 1991…also the hottest temperature ever recorded so late in the year)

[sambucol]

This system may also allow a fairly strong cold front to cross the region with a more significant cool down. Most importantly, this appears to be a sustained pattern change toward wetter and cooler weather into late October.

YES!!!

[srainhoutx]

Fire Update from Jeff:

Bastrop County has issued a mandatory evacuation for all residents along Powell Rd, Spring Hollow Rd, and Long Trail.

ire has grown to 1,521 acres and is actively burning NNW toward the east side of Hwy 71 near the northwest corner of Buescher State Park. This is also near the southern edge of the devastating 2011 Bastrop State Park fire. Grounds crews have good containment lines on the south and east flanks of the fire, but have been unable to contain the spread to the NNW this morning. At least 35 homes are currently being threatened.

Current RH is bottoming out in the 10-15% range over the region with Caldwell reporting 13%, Brenham 15%, and Tomball 17%. Colege Station winds have increased into the 10-20mph range currently SSE at 10G17mph which will certainly encourage fire spread.

[DoctorMu]

13% RH in CLL today after a 9% RH dip yesterday afternoon. The good news is that 92°F feels like 87°F!

Caldwell currently at 10% RH after a low of 7% yesterday

Winds are light right not be expected to pick up again later this afternoon and tomorrow. Burn ban remains in effect, naturally.

[unome]

Bastrop fire on satellite, loop here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/h ... p-rgb.html

on radar loop even http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=E_T ... verDim=100

[jasons2k]

I had a low of 58 and a high of 100. Pretty crazy.

[srainhoutx]

The sensible forecast still look hopeful for a pattern change beginning next week with rain chances increasing Tuesday. Before getting into the specifics of next week, we still have to get through the next couple of days before another cold front sweeps in and finally ends the chance of filtering with record high temperatures, but the wildfire danger likely will persist into the weekend.

Regarding the much anticipated change in the upper air pattern, the upper low that has been offshore of California is moving inland and carving out an upper trough across the West. This upper trough will bring about the pattern change as it very slowly meanders E across the Intermountain West and the Great Plains. increasing moisture from the Gulf and Eastern Pacific appears to become established with a SW flow aloft and a Southerly flow at the surface early next week. The upper trough looks to be rather transient, or slow moving as a blocking Ridge of high pressure becomes established along the East Coast. Rain chances further increase Wednesday into next Thursday as disturbances embedded with the SW upper flow cross Texas increasing the low level moisture to +2 inches. There are some indications that later next week may bring a surface low developing in the Western Gulf ahead of a very slow moving cold front. If that feature were to actually develop, rain chances could extend further into the forecast period, but that remains to be seen.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Continued hot and very dry with near critical fire weather conditions.

Surface high pressure is starting to move eastward which will allow an onshore wind flow to develop today. This will help to return low level moisture to the southern half of SE TX, but the northern half of the region will remain horribly dry again today…with near critical fire weather conditions. Dry air mass will result in quick temperature rise back into the upper 80’s and low 90’s with records likely being tied or broken across the region.

Hidden Pines Fire:

Fire has expanded to 4200 acres overnight and 9 homes were lost with now 150 homes threatened. The 9 homes lost were along Old Antioch Rd north of Park Rd 1C. The fire is 15% contained. Large scale evacuation orders are now in place from north of Smithville to south of Bastrop and east of HWY 71. Expectation of increasing southerly winds today is only going to worsen ongoing efforts to contain this now significant wildfire. Fire behavior yesterday and overnight was more intense than the previous days and ground crews continue to struggle to hold fire lines. This fire is now requiring many additional resources since it has burned into a more populated area requiring more defensive structure protection. Conditions for this fire today will be similar to the past two days with more wind which will likely result in a faster rate of spread toward the north and northwest today and potential for short lived crown runs which can quickly jump fire lines. Smoke plume from this fire has been trapped near the surface overnight due to the low level temperature inversion and now covers much of central TX north of HWY 71 northward toward Waco and Dallas.

The images below shows fire “hot spots” from satellite images along with boxed containment lines. As one can see this is not a single large fire, but several smaller fires most being started by falling embers beyond containment line.

Fire 4538 (East Montgomery County):

Fire developed this morning west of Patton Village north of FM 242 along the east side of Firetower Rd. Local FD indicate 6 acres are burned, but the fire is at 100% containment.

Fire conditions this afternoon north of I-10 will be near critical levels. KBDI values NW of a Columbus to Huntsville line are averaging 735-775 with 800 being the top maximum of the scale indicating that there is zero moisture in the top 8 inches of soil. Vegetation health is extremely poor and as seen over the last few days readily available to burn. RH this afternoon will fall to between 15-25% north of I-10 and south winds will increase to between 10-15mph with a few gust to near 20mph west of a line from Columbus to College Station. We are still below Red Flag Warning criteria, but given the numerous fire starts over the last few days and spread, conditions are near critical and residents should use extreme caution with any open flames.

Saturday:

Of growing concern will be another front crossing the area late Friday and bringing yet another very dry air mass and stronger winds to the area over the weekend. Lack of any rainfall with this front will continue to maintain a high fire danger this weekend. Current wind speeds look to remain below Red Flag criteria on Saturday…but it may be close especially during the afternoon hours. Expect Saturday to be a near critical fire weather day across the region.

Extended:

If we can just make it to the middle of next week…major pattern change is becoming increasingly likely with potential for significant rainfall and much cooler temperatures. Long wave trough will develop over the SW US this weekend and move into the plains early next week. Significant low and high level moisture will surge into the area as soon as late Monday with rain chances increasing as SW flow aloft brings upper level disturbances into the region. Think the main rain chances will be Wednesday into Thursday and some heavy rainfall will be possible. Stronger cold front may usher in high temperatures in the 70’s by Thursday and Friday on next week.

Record Highs Yesterday:

Corpus Christi: 94 (broke record of 93 in 2009)
Galveston: 89 (broke record of 86 in 2012)
BUSH IAH: 92 (Tied record of 92 in 1954)
Austin Mabry: 96 (broke record of 95 in 1948)
Austin Bergstrom: 95 (broke record of 94 in 1948)
San Antonio: 95 (broke record of 94 in 1991)
Waco: 98 (broke record of 93 in 1999)

[srainhoutx]

There has been some chatter on other sites as well as social media of a possible tropical low in the Western Gulf later next week. It would be highly unusual this late in the year for a tropical low developing near Tampico and heading N to NNE along the NE Mexico and Texas Coast. I suspect this could be a coastal low which is what we typically experience this time of year with frontal boundaries and upper troughs nearby.

[stormlover]

here is euro



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed.

[Paul Robison]

There has been some chatter on other sites as well as social media of a possible tropical low in the Western Gulf later next week. It would be highly unusual this late in the year for a tropical low developing near Tampico and heading N to NNE along the NE Mexico and Texas Coast. I suspect this could be a coastal low which is what we typically experience this time of year with frontal boundaries and upper troughs nearby.

Srainhoutex, might this turn out to be a similar TC (should say hurricane, but wouldn't be appropriate now) to Opal (1995) if this tropical low combines with the approaching trough from the west? That was a pretty powerful storm, as I recall. (cat 4 at 916 Mb). I am also disturbed by the GFS depicting ultimate track toward the TX/LA state line. Any thoughts?

[DoctorMu]

GFS latest run continues wetter for the last half of next week:

[Paul Robison]

GFS latest run continues wetter for the last half of next week:

In light of a possible TC landfall at the TX/LA border the last half of next week, I would expect that.

[DoctorMu]

Tropical lemonade would be best. This time of the year full-blown TS/H usually slide east of Texas, and yields the risk of hotter, windy conditions under the ULH.

Hoping for a hot mess.

[Paul Robison]

Tropical lemonade would be best. This time of the year full-blown TS/H usually slide east of Texas, and yields the risk of hotter, windy conditions under the ULH.

Hoping for a hot mess.

Aw nuts, another TC like Bill!

Uh, what kind of storm do you get at 996 MB?

[srainhoutx]

The main forecast challenge via the 00Z Global computer guidance is the longwave trough to our West and does it wrap up into a very slow moving closed 500mb upper low over Northern Mexico/Southern Arizona and the eventual development of a Coastal trough across the Lower/Middle Texas Coast late next week. There have been indications of a tropical system organizing in the Gulf of Tehuatepec in the Eastern Pacific eventually crossing into the Bay of Campeche/Western Gulf and organizing into a tropical cyclone or hybrid low moving N to NNE toward the Texas/Louisiana Coast next weekend. The only concern is the computer models with each run have delayed this Western Gulf low, which raises an eyebrow. That said satellite imagery does suggest increasing moisture developing across Central America and the NW Caribbean Sea and virtually all the reliable computer models agree that there is some potential of a 850mb low with a surface reflection possible near Tampico by next Thursday complicating the sensible weather forecast. What we do know this morning is that the HPC/WPC has increased the QPF dramatically for Coastal Texas in the Day 6 to 7 timeframe. The key to future forecast trends will be the trough to our West and just how slow it advances East next week. This is a complicated and low confidence forecast at this time. Should the trends continue, Coastal flooding issues due to a persistent long fetch Easterly flow also enter the picture adding to an already challenging forecast. Stay tuned!

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Elevated fire weather conditions today…near critical conditions on Saturday.

Residents across the region should be extremely careful over the weekend with any open flame and follow county issued burn bans.

Current:
Near excellent RH recovery overnight with many sites this morning reporting values of 85-95% and shallow ground fog which has helped to wet fine fuels with dew. Low level mixing should develop a few hours after sunrise evaporating the low level saturation and mixing down dry air aloft. Additionally, a cold front moving south across N TX faster than expected with bring gusty winds to portions of the area by mid afternoon. RH this afternoon will bottom out between 25-35% north of US 59 and 20-25% north of the frontal boundary. ESE winds ahead of the front will shift to the N and NE behind the front and increase into the 10-20mph range. Post frontal winds of 15-25mph will be possible within a few hours of the frontal passage as noted over NC TX this morning which will make for a period of very dangerous conditions.

Saturday:
Post frontal dry air mass will be in place with offshore flow. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees cooler than today (mid 80’s), but 10-15mph winds over extremely dry fuels (see KBDI map below) and RH falling into the 10-20% range during the afternoon will produce near critical fire weather conditions. Winds are below Red Flag Warning criteria, but could be very close over W LA into E TX. Any fires that develop to our NNE/NE will have smoke plumes directed SSW into SE TX.

Hidden Pines Fire:
Overall fire activity was less overnight with good RH recovery and calm winds. Thus far 4383 acres have burned and the fire is 25% contained. Bastrop County is reporting 34 structures (not all homes) lost and about 400 remain threatened. TFS requested a DC-10 heavy air tanker from CA overnight and the aircraft has arrived into the area and will begin drops of chemical retardant this morning. Additionally, 2 air tankers and up to 6 helicopters are working the fire along with many ground support and dozer crews. Conditions will be good this morning for offensive operations. Conditions will quickly worsen around midday as a front moves across the region with rapidly shifting and increasing winds allowing for rekindle, flare-ups, and ember spotting. Winds will turn to the NNE/NE pushing the fire generally westward this afternoon toward HWY 71 and greater population areas. Potential for short crown runs in the pine canopy with the stronger winds which may breach containment lines. Weather pattern will require extensive monitoring of burn scar for rapid rekindle and needed rapid response of both air and ground crews.

Pattern Change:
Much talked about and needed pattern change still appears likely next week allowing much better rain chances and cooler weather across the area. An upper level trough will develop over the SW US allowing Pacific moisture to flow into TX on a SW flow aloft. At the same time….low level ridging which has kept deep tropical moisture confined to our south for the last several weeks…will break down allowing southerly flow to bring tropical moisture northward from the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean Sea. GFS and ECMWF both spin up some sort of tropical low on the Pacific side of Mexico and cross this feature into the southern Gulf of Mexico and bring it northward mid to late next week. It is really late to have a tropical threat to the state of TX...it has happened before…but is rare. Hopefully the system remains disorganized and allows significant moisture into the area. A stronger system would likely turn more NNE/NE and head for the central Gulf coast keeping TX on the dry side. GFS QPF is certainly worth noting with amounts of 4-6 inches of a good part of the area by next weekend. Upper system looks slow moving and will likely lead to prolonged rain chances Wednesday-next week.

KBDI Values (Values over 700 are extremely critical for wildfire start and spread):