October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

***Extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flood event today-Sunday!***

Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect

Gale Warning issued for all coastal waters

Rainfall:
Excessive rainfall event is underway and starting to move into SE TX. Widespread flooding is ongoing over central and north Texas after 5-7 inches of rainfall over C TX this morning. Corsicana, TX has recorded over 18.0 inches and Waco almost 8 inches. Austin has recorded over 6 inches. LCRA is now operating flood gates at Tom Miller Dam.

Factors now in place to produce a potentially devastating flash flood over SE TX from late this morning through noon Sunday…TAKE THIS THREAT SERIOUSLY!

Core of Patricia now over central TX and racing toward S TX and will move right over SE TX tonight and Sunday while a slow moving cold front moves into the area. Excessive rainfall will develop and train over the area with hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches for many hours. Will increase storm totals to widespread 9-12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches SE of a line from Victoria to Columbus to Cleveland including much of Harris County. NW of this line rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated totals of 8-10 inches will be possible.

Rainfall of this magnitude will cause very significant flooding.

Tides:
Tides will be on the rise today and reach 4.5-5.5 ft all area tonight. This will result in coastal flooding along much of the upper TX coast. Critical areas will be Bolivar, west Galveston Is, Seabrook, Kemah, Surfside, and Clear Lake.

Tides will remain high into midday Sunday.

Winds:
Will bump winds up a little more on the coast as latest guidance is stronger with 30-45mph likely. Stronger storms will bring wind energy to the surface in strong gust with some up to 50mph possible. Offshore winds sustained at above 40mph look likely…Gale Warning criteria. Wind maximum should be between midnight and 900am Sunday as surface low passes over SE TX.

Actions:
Residents should be prepared for flash flood conditions.

Travel after 300pm this afternoon is not advised

Flooding of structures will becoming increasingly likely across the area. Be prepared to take quick actions from rising water this evening and overnight into Sunday. Flooding may result in areas that normally do not flood to flood.

24-hr Storm Totals:

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE TX COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SE
LOWER MI...NE INDIANA...AND NW OH...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 P.M. EDT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH THE RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF INDIANA AND OH THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...A SLOW-MOVING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD FROM NW
MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
INVOF S TX AND THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA WILL EJECT NEWD OVER S TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S/SE TX THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TX COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY PRESENT OVER S TX WHERE PW
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.5 INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS PERSIST
IN THE MID 70S. A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY IS SAGGING SEWD TOWARD S
CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO N TX. THE
PRESENCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARIES...RECORD PW VALUES FOR LATE
OCTOBER...AND THE APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
OCCUR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.

...SE LOWER MI/NE INDIANA/NW OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LOWER
MI...INDIANA...AND NW OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. A BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF 40-50 KT FLOW
MIDLEVEL FLOW.

..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 10/24/2015

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/15 1335Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE FOR ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF CLL WSW
TOWARDS S OF DRT CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY S. OVER THE PAST HOUR VIS
IMAGERY WAS ALSO INDICATING A PREFRONTAL AREA OF ENHANCED UPDRAFTS
THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST E OF LRD. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT UPPER TROF WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM WAS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS
OF N MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH VERY ACTIVE WCB/SUBTROPICAL STREAM, WITH
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WITHIN, EXTENDING FROM SUBTROPICAL E PAC NE TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS WERE MODEST AT BEST
WITH SHORTWAVE TROF OVER N MEXICO, A STRATOSPHERIC EXTRUSION WAS NOTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SW NM AND N MEXICO ON LATEST GOES-RGB PRODUCTS THAT
WAS AMPLIFYING SE AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED CURVATURE AND
DEVELOPING INFLECTION WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM. THIS WAS SUGGESTIVE TO
A BROAD INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING WHICH WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL REMAINS OF PATRICIA APPROACHING S TX AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CYLOGENESIS ENSUE ON SW PORTION OF SINKING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AND BLENDED PW ANALYSIS, AS EXPECTED, WAS INDICATING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL TX WITH PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 200% ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES AND PW AT BRO APPROACHING
AN ALL TIME RECORD OCTOBER VALUE. RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY WAS LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION WITH MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH SMALL AREA OF MORE MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER FAR S TX.
STILL THOUGH, ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES COMBINED WITH TALL SKINNY CAPES
AND DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYERS OF 4.5-5.0KM WOULD SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS LARGER SCALE FORCING
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. PLEASE SEE MOST RECENT FFGMPD AND
QPFERD FOR MORE INFORMATION AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

[srainhoutx]

12Z 12km NAM precipitation totals for the next 36 hours suggest some areas seeing 14 to 16+ inches of rain by tomorrow evening.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
914 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 912 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH WATER POTENTIALLY
COVERING ROADWAYS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...SEADRIFT...GUADALUPE...POINT COMFORT...
POINT COMFORT...VICTORIA DETAR HOSPITAL NORTH...LONG MOTT...
DACOSTA...WOOD HI...VICTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...DOWNTOWN
VICTORIA...INDIANOLA...KAMEY...MAGNOLIA BEACH...KAMAY...ALAMO
BEACH...VICTORIA COLONY CREEK COUNTRY CLUB...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND
SAXET LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

[srainhoutx]

TS Patricia advancing rather quickly across Mexico and near the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A shortwave across the Del Rio area is dropping SSE and surface cyclogenesis (Coastal Low) is beginning to start in response to Patricia nearing S Texas. Look for conditions to begin deteriorating quickly across Central and SE Texas the next couple of hours. Flash Flooding reports are streaming in from Brownsville on N and E.

[srainhoutx]

Getting reports of a possible small tornado HWY 288 @ Beltway 8.

[srainhoutx]

New Mesoscale Discussion is coming in shortly for S Central and SE Texas...

10242015 mcd0608.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0608
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1116 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 241515Z - 242115Z

SUMMARY...VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...LEADING TO ADDTIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...20-30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2-2.5 INCH PWS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEX AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEX NORTHWARD TO ALONG A NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE
FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BOUNDARY
SLOWING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTING AHEAD OF A WEAK
WAVE MOVING OUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH TX LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPPER DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LARGER SCALE LIFT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH TX AND THE TX
COAST...INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES AS
INDICATED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND BRO...WITH ABOVE
FREEZING LEVELS EXTENDING 4.5-5 KM...SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...

[unome]

Josh was just live on TWC, pretty harrowing tale - very glad to know they're ok !

[unome]

make calls @ your own risk: https://twitter.com/GrasswireNow/status ... 7245437952

Grasswire Now
‏@GrasswireNow

Comcast, AT&T say calls from the U.S. to phone numbers in Mexico are currently free following #HurricanePatricia

[nuby3]

I'm starting to think even still the rainfall totals might be under done

[srainhoutx]

Surface pressures along the S Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coasts continue to fall suggesting a Coastal Low is developing as TD Patricia remnants approach S Texas.

[sambucol]

What is the timing for the flooding rains in the Mont Belvieu/Baytown area to arrive?

[srainhoutx]

Update from HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1114 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...DANGEROUS MAJOR STORM EVENT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR LATE TODAY AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECORD HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS SO FAR. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND AND 6 TO 12 INCHES TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT LINE ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND
MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STORM ROTATION THAT COULD LEAD TO FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND/OR TORNADOES. THIS DANGEROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST BOTH AHEAD OF THIS
STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BEHIND THIS STORM ON SUNDAY. 42

[srainhoutx]

What is the timing for the flooding rains in the Mont Belvieu/Baytown area to arrive?

This evening through tomorrow morning as the Coastal Low moves up the Coast, Sambucol.

[unome]

was just looking at pressures

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

MCMULLEN-LA SALLE-WEBB-BEE-SAN PATRICIO-JIM WELLS-DUVAL-LIVE OAK-
1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
MCMULLEN...NORTHWESTERN SAN PATRICIO...NORTHEASTERN WEBB...LIVE
OAK...SOUTHWESTERN BEE...NORTHERN DUVAL...NORTHERN JIM WELLS AND
SOUTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

AT 1123 AM CDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS EXTENDING FROM BEEVILLE TO
NEAR COTULLA...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEEVILLE...MATHIS...GEORGE WEST...LAKE CITY...MIDWAY...LOMA ALTA...
CLEGG...MOUNT LUCAS...RANCHO DE LA PARITA...SEVEN SISTERS...TYNAN...
ANNAROSE...FORT EWELL SITE...RIVER CREEK ACRES...ARGENTA...LAGARTO...
DINERO...LAKESIDE...LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AND PERNITAS POINT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

[Rip76]

Surface pressures along the S Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coasts continue to fall suggesting a Coastal Low is developing as TD Patricia remnants approach S Texas.

Interesting... And totally sniffed out by the models.

[srainhoutx]

Slight Risk for Severe Storms coming in from the Storm Prediction Center. Text and Graphics to follow shortly.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LOWER
MI/IND/OH...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 P.M. EDT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TX...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...APPROACHING
DEEP SOUTH TX. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER VORTICITY
CENTER APPROACHES THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THE INLAND EXTENT OF A FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE IMMEDIATE TX GULF COAST TO SLIGHT RISK DUE
TO THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF TORNADOES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER
MI/IND/OH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AFFECTING THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOW-TOPPED FAST-MOVING
ROTATING/BOWING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..HART/BROYLES.. 10/24/2015

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center Expands the High Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT OCT 24 2015 - 12Z SUN OCT 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE KCMB 20 NNE KEMK 55 SE KOPM 35 SSW MMMA 55 SSW MMRX
35 W MFE 25 WSW HBV 35 NNW LRD 10 ENE MMPG 20 WSW DRT 35 NNW DRT
55 SW BWD 20 WSW NFW 30 ESE ASG 30 WSW POF 10 NE JBR 15 SW LIT
10 E ELD 35 NNE ESF 20 ENE KCMB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E KGVX 10 E KBBF 15 SSE KMIU 10 SW PIL 20 WSW MMMA 25 S MMRX
MMRX BKS 35 NW ALI 30 E COT 10 NE UVA 25 E ECU 25 N 6R9
15 SE GVT 15 SE LBR 30 WSW TXK 25 ENE 4F4 25 WSW GGG 20 W OCH
20 SE LFK 25 SE JAS 15 SW LCH 25 E KGVX.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW KBBF 15 E 2R8 20 W RKP 55 WSW VCT 10 SSE RND 30 ESE T82
10 ESE BMQ TPL 25 NNW LHB 15 WSW CLL DWH 35 NE EFD 25 NNE KXIH
20 NNE KGVX 15 ENE KBQX 15 NW KBBF.


1500 UTC UPDATE

OVERALL---NO CHANGES IN THE THINKING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WERE TO EXPAND THE HIGH
RISK AREA NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FWD WFO GIVEN THE NEW FFG VALUES THAT HAVE
LOWERED GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE HIGH RISK WAS ALSO
EXPANDED WESTWARD ACROSS MORE OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF EWD WFO
AND SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF CRP AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BRO
WFO. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR WAS TRIMMED
BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST AR GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE 1200 UTC
NAM AND NAM CONEST DO NOT DEVIATE FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WIDESPREAD 5-10"+ PRECIP TOTALS FOR THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX. THE NAM CONEST WHICH
USUALLY HAS A HIGH BIAS IS SHOWING A MAX OVER 20" OVER SOUTHEAST
TX---BUT WITH WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR---THESE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT UNREASONABLE.

ORAVEC