October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal
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nuby3
- Posts: 387
- Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:25 pm
- Location: THE WOODLANDS PARKWAY and FM 2978
- Contact:
6-15 inches radar indicated for a large area between Dallas and Waco. radar indicates 2-4 inches of accumulation in the last hour sw of Waco. not rates but actual accumulation. not looking good folkies
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The 00Z Global and Mesoscale guidance continues to suggest a worrisome forecast across Central, SE, East Texas and Western/SW Louisiana will unfold later today into Monday. Patricia, although well inland continues to produce winds near 100 MPH with higher gusts as it moves ENE over the mountains of Central Mexico. A cold front is slowly advancing SE over NW/N Central Texas with a stationary boundary across Central Texas extending to near Shreveport where heavy training rainfall has been occurring. Rainfall rates nearing 3 inches per hour is leading to life threatening Flash Flooding where training storms exist. Virtually all of the guidance develop a coastal low later this evening across S Texas as the mid/upper level vorticity associated with Patricia approaches S Central Texas. The combination of Patricia remnants, a slow moving frontal boundary and a surface low reflection near the Texas Gulf Coast that takes about 24 to 36 hours to move just S of Lake Charles is a recipe for a very heavy multi hour rainfall event with convective elements. Rainfall rates of 3+ inches per hour is possible anywhere across the Austin to College Station, Houston, Beaumont, Lufkin and Lake Charles area on N and E. Not going to pinpoint who will get the heaviest rainfall, but locations along and S of the I-35 Corridor could see rainfall totals nearing 12+ inches the next 36 to 48 hours.
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER A BROAD SWATH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THU/FRI HAD FOCUSED
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET...DUMPING 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WILL
EVOLVE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON SATURDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PATRICIA AND A SOUTHERN STREAM BAROCLINIC TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT
OF NEW MEXICO ACT TO INDUCE BROAD CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTH TEXAS. THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED IN THE 00Z BROWNSVILLE TX
SOUNDING WAS WELL INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE DATE...ALTHOUGH
SIMILAR VALUES HAD BEEN MEASURED AS LATE AS OCTOBER 16TH WITHIN
THE PERIOD OF RECORD. THE MOISTURE QUALITY IS OF GREAT
CONCERN...AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE FORMIDABLE AND SUSTAINED
OVER A LENGTHY DURATION AS THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ENHANCE INFLOW OFF THE GULF...AND YIELD
NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS TO MERGE WITH LARGER SCALE THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEMS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH
ONLY SLOW NET MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE LOCATIONS OF
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WELL
CLUSTERED WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM THE VICINITY OF AUSTIN
AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF SAN ANTONIO TO VICTORIA TO HOUSTON.
MODERATE RISK SURROUNDS THE HIGH RISK AREA...AND EXTENDS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE WRF-ARW AND GFS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF HEAVIER RAIN INTO LA...BUT THE WPC
FORECAST HOLDS BACK A BIT...EXPECTING THAT COLD POOLS WILL BE VERY
WEAK IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM TAKES ON STRONGER BAROCLINIC CHARACTER
AND PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.
THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TX WERE NOT GIVEN ANY WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST AS THE LAND IS LIKELY
TO BE OVERWHELMED BY INTENSE RAIN RATES AND AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST. RAIN RATES IN THE WRF-ARW JUST START TO TOUCH UPON 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...AND GIVEN THE SITUATION IS SO FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING 4 INCH PER
HOUR RATES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.
THANKS TO WFO HGX...CRP...EWX...AND FWD FOR COORDINATION ON THE
HIGH RISK ISSUANCE
A quick look at the next weekend forecast suggests another potential heavy rainfall event is possible as yet another deep Western trough develops and moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with the remnants of Central Pacific Hurricane Olaf move in our general direction.
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER A BROAD SWATH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THU/FRI HAD FOCUSED
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET...DUMPING 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MULTIPLE DAY EVENT WILL
EVOLVE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON SATURDAY...AS
THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
PATRICIA AND A SOUTHERN STREAM BAROCLINIC TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT
OF NEW MEXICO ACT TO INDUCE BROAD CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTH TEXAS. THE
2.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED IN THE 00Z BROWNSVILLE TX
SOUNDING WAS WELL INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR THE DATE...ALTHOUGH
SIMILAR VALUES HAD BEEN MEASURED AS LATE AS OCTOBER 16TH WITHIN
THE PERIOD OF RECORD. THE MOISTURE QUALITY IS OF GREAT
CONCERN...AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE FORMIDABLE AND SUSTAINED
OVER A LENGTHY DURATION AS THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL ENHANCE INFLOW OFF THE GULF...AND YIELD
NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS TO MERGE WITH LARGER SCALE THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEMS OCCURRING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR THE COAST...WITH
ONLY SLOW NET MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE LOCATIONS OF
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RELATIVELY WELL
CLUSTERED WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM THE VICINITY OF AUSTIN
AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF SAN ANTONIO TO VICTORIA TO HOUSTON.
MODERATE RISK SURROUNDS THE HIGH RISK AREA...AND EXTENDS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE WRF-ARW AND GFS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF HEAVIER RAIN INTO LA...BUT THE WPC
FORECAST HOLDS BACK A BIT...EXPECTING THAT COLD POOLS WILL BE VERY
WEAK IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LATER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM TAKES ON STRONGER BAROCLINIC CHARACTER
AND PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.
THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TX WERE NOT GIVEN ANY WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST AS THE LAND IS LIKELY
TO BE OVERWHELMED BY INTENSE RAIN RATES AND AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST. RAIN RATES IN THE WRF-ARW JUST START TO TOUCH UPON 3 INCHES
PER HOUR...AND GIVEN THE SITUATION IS SO FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING 4 INCH PER
HOUR RATES TODAY...RESULTING IN THE RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING.
THANKS TO WFO HGX...CRP...EWX...AND FWD FOR COORDINATION ON THE
HIGH RISK ISSUANCE
A quick look at the next weekend forecast suggests another potential heavy rainfall event is possible as yet another deep Western trough develops and moisture from the Eastern Pacific associated with the remnants of Central Pacific Hurricane Olaf move in our general direction.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
451 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 240850Z - 241450Z
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF PATRICIA AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF PATRICIA ALREADY THROUGH
CENTRAL PLATEAU OF MEXICO STARTING TO BRING BROAD SCALE ASCENT
WITH VAST AREA OF DPVA. ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM BROAD
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS OF 140KT JET (PER SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
IN NE OK) AS WELL AS CONVERGING FRONTAL ZONES SUPPORT THIS LARGE
SCALE UVV ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONTS...SATURATED PROFILES TO NEARLY 400 MB WITH AMPLE
TPWS EXCEEDING 2 TO 2.5" WILL BE ADVECTED WITH LIMITED BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WIDE 20-30 KT 20-30KT 85H TO 7H
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.0"/HR ARE LIKELY WITH VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH TIME TO ALLOW FOR A BROAD ZONE OF
2-4" FROM THE BIG BEND/DRT EASTWARD TOWARD A WEAK SURFACE
INFLECTION NEAR BMQ...CURRENTLY.
AT THIS SURFACE LOW...A N-S BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE WEST GULF
COAST DROPS SOUTH TO BRO. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING AS AN
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/ENHANCE FROM SWLY FLOW FROM PATRICIA. WITH THE BULK OF
THE CLOUD BARING LAYER GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...THIS CONVECTION
WITH ITS 2-2.5"/HR RATES WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME SMALL CORRIDOR
FROM BRO TO ALI TO SAT WITH TOTALS OF 2-4" EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
6HRS OR SO. ONCE THIS CHANNEL OF ENHANCED CONVECTION INSECTS THE
STATIONARY FRONT...INCREASED MERGERS AND RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS
EXPECTED WITH RATES OF 3"/HR POSSIBLE AND A ZONE OF EXTREME
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 6" WITH LIKELY LOCALIZE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. THIS IS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR...CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL.
WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY
STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL COMPOUND ALREADY SATURATED AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE DFW METRO...MAINTAINING FLASH FLOOD/PROLONGED
FLOODING CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.
GALLINA
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Corsicana has already had 17.72" of rainfall...... Waco is at 8.72". 7.03" at DFW
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
HGX issues Coastal Flood Warning
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOODING DURING WEEKEND HIGH TIDES...
...HIGH WEEKEND RIP CURRENT RISK...
.A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER LEVELS AND WAVE RUN UP WILL
APPROACH AND OR SLIGHTLY OVER WASH THE LOWEST LYING ROADWAYS
ALONG THE COAST AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS INCLUDES PARTS OF
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT HIGHWAY 87 AT HIGHWAY 124...NEAR THE
LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING...THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
PARTS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
TXZ213-214-236>238-242100-
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151025T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.A.0001.151025T0000Z-151026T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.W.0001.151024T1500Z-151026T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* COASTAL FLOODING...WEEKEND WATER LEVELS ABOVE MEAN LOW LOW
WATER COULD EXCEED 4.8 FEET DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL CREATE WATER RUN-UP ISSUES ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT
HIGHWAY 87....THE HIGHWAY 87 AND HIGHWAY 124 INTERSECTION...
NEAR THE LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING... THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN
BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SECTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM SATURDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* IMPACTS...MORE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH ALONG
THE LOWEST AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ROADS MAY DEPOSIT DEBRIS ON
THE THESE ROADS AND MAKE TRAVEL MORE DIFFICULT. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS...JETTIES AND ROCK GROINS
WILL MAKE SWIMMING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVEN TO THE MOST MOST
EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. THE GALVESTON BEACH PATROL ADVISES TO
ONLY GO INTO A DEPTH OF YOUR KNEES IF YOU ARE A CAPABLE
SWIMMER. OTHERWISE DO NOT ENTER THE WATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE SURF ZONE.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL...
FLAGS AND SIGNS. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.
THE WEEKEND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
&&
...WATER LEVELS AND TIDE TIMES...
NOTE...THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE TIMES AND FORECAST LEVELS ARE
REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DATUM.
LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED TIDE TYPE
WATER LEVEL
MORGANS POINT...
SAT 7:09 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:16 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 6:52 PM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:02 AM 2.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:10 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:34 PM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:18 PM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
MANCHESTER...
SAT 7:44 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:54 PM 2.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 7:46 PM 3.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:17 AM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:02 AM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:22 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:52 PM 3.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
ROLLOVER PASS...
SAT 5:16 AM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:04 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:27 PM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:12 AM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:27 AM 3.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:29 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:46 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 5:45 AM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:02 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:24 PM 2.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 11:18 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:31 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:17 PM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:15 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
SAT 7:39 AM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:20 PM 3.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:55 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:07 AM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:19 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:34 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:55 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...
SAT 7:31 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:42 PM 4.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:41 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:03 AM 4.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:06 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:48 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:44 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
FREEPORT USCG...
SAT 7:53 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:33 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:58 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:01 AM 4.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:18 AM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:44 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 9:08 PM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
PORT OCONNOR...
SAT 5:00 AM 3.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 10:11 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:52 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 9:25 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:25 AM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:24 AM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:51 PM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:23 PM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOODING DURING WEEKEND HIGH TIDES...
...HIGH WEEKEND RIP CURRENT RISK...
.A LONG FETCH OF STRONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS HAS GENERATED
ROUGH SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WATER LEVELS AND WAVE RUN UP WILL
APPROACH AND OR SLIGHTLY OVER WASH THE LOWEST LYING ROADWAYS
ALONG THE COAST AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS INCLUDES PARTS OF
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT HIGHWAY 87 AT HIGHWAY 124...NEAR THE
LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING...THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
PARTS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
TXZ213-214-236>238-242100-
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151025T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KHGX.CF.A.0001.151025T0000Z-151026T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.W.0001.151024T1500Z-151026T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-
513 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* COASTAL FLOODING...WEEKEND WATER LEVELS ABOVE MEAN LOW LOW
WATER COULD EXCEED 4.8 FEET DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL CREATE WATER RUN-UP ISSUES ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT
HIGHWAY 87....THE HIGHWAY 87 AND HIGHWAY 124 INTERSECTION...
NEAR THE LYNCHBURG FERRY LANDING... THE BLUE WATER HIGHWAY IN
BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES...BEACH DRIVE IN SURFSIDE...
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SECTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD IN SEABROOK.
* TIMING...COASTAL FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM SATURDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* IMPACTS...MORE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERWASH ALONG
THE LOWEST AND MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ROADS MAY DEPOSIT DEBRIS ON
THE THESE ROADS AND MAKE TRAVEL MORE DIFFICULT. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS...JETTIES AND ROCK GROINS
WILL MAKE SWIMMING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVEN TO THE MOST MOST
EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. THE GALVESTON BEACH PATROL ADVISES TO
ONLY GO INTO A DEPTH OF YOUR KNEES IF YOU ARE A CAPABLE
SWIMMER. OTHERWISE DO NOT ENTER THE WATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE SURF ZONE.
RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL...
FLAGS AND SIGNS. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.
THE WEEKEND COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.
&&
...WATER LEVELS AND TIDE TIMES...
NOTE...THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE TIMES AND FORECAST LEVELS ARE
REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER DATUM.
LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED TIDE TYPE
WATER LEVEL
MORGANS POINT...
SAT 7:09 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:16 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 6:52 PM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:02 AM 2.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:10 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 1:34 PM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:18 PM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
MANCHESTER...
SAT 7:44 AM 2.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 1:54 PM 2.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 7:46 PM 3.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:17 AM 2.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:02 AM 3.4 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 2:22 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 8:52 PM 3.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
ROLLOVER PASS...
SAT 5:16 AM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:04 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:27 PM 3.5 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:12 AM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:27 AM 3.9 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:29 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:46 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 5:45 AM 2.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 12:02 PM 2.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 5:24 PM 2.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 11:18 PM 2.4 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 5:31 AM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 12:17 PM 2.8 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 7:15 PM 3.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
SAT 7:39 AM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:20 PM 3.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:55 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:07 AM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:19 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:34 PM 4.0 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:55 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...
SAT 7:31 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:42 PM 4.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:41 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:03 AM 4.8 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:06 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:48 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:44 PM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
FREEPORT USCG...
SAT 7:53 AM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 1:33 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 7:58 PM 3.2 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:01 AM 4.6 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 8:18 AM 3.7 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 2:44 PM 4.3 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 9:08 PM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
PORT OCONNOR...
SAT 5:00 AM 3.2 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 10:11 AM 3.1 FEET LOW TIDE
SAT 2:52 PM 3.1 FEET HIGH TIDE
SAT 9:25 PM 3.0 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 3:25 AM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:24 AM 3.5 FEET LOW TIDE
SUN 6:51 PM 3.7 FEET HIGH TIDE
SUN 10:23 PM 3.6 FEET LOW TIDE
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
each of these start as-of different days/times, you can check their radar site for the times:
http://radar.weather.gov/index_lite.htm
more options: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ and http://www.harriscountyfws.org/
my area has had less than 1/10" in the last month, so I'm looking forward to the rain
http://radar.weather.gov/index_lite.htm
more options: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ and http://www.harriscountyfws.org/
my area has had less than 1/10" in the last month, so I'm looking forward to the rain
The Wide World of SPoRT blog: https://nasasport.wordpress.com/2015/10 ... rn-plains/
interesting blog on recent weather in TX, especially the soil moisture loop - much needed rain, just be smart about getting out & about, if you must
Image 3. SPoRT LIS 0-10 cm Relative Soil Moisture, 21 UTC 21 Oct to 15 UTC 23 Oct 2015.
interesting blog on recent weather in TX, especially the soil moisture loop - much needed rain, just be smart about getting out & about, if you must
Image 3. SPoRT LIS 0-10 cm Relative Soil Moisture, 21 UTC 21 Oct to 15 UTC 23 Oct 2015.
image from http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... m=Patricia
compliments of Chris Hollis, http://tropicalglobe.com/
The manually created image below contains all the reconnaissance that our site processed for this storm.
compliments of Chris Hollis, http://tropicalglobe.com/
The manually created image below contains all the reconnaissance that our site processed for this storm.
Erig Berger will be missed at The Houston Chronicle, but you can still follow him at https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX and https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace
his latest blog on our local weather: http://spacecityweather.com/potentially ... y-morning/
his latest blog on our local weather: http://spacecityweather.com/potentially ... y-morning/
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Morning briefing from Jeff:
***Extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flood event today-Sunday!***
Flash Flood Watch is in effect
Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect
Gale Warning issued for all coastal waters
Rainfall:
Excessive rainfall event is underway and starting to move into SE TX. Widespread flooding is ongoing over central and north Texas after 5-7 inches of rainfall over C TX this morning. Corsicana, TX has recorded over 18.0 inches and Waco almost 8 inches. Austin has recorded over 6 inches. LCRA is now operating flood gates at Tom Miller Dam.
Factors now in place to produce a potentially devastating flash flood over SE TX from late this morning through noon Sunday…TAKE THIS THREAT SERIOUSLY!
Core of Patricia now over central TX and racing toward S TX and will move right over SE TX tonight and Sunday while a slow moving cold front moves into the area. Excessive rainfall will develop and train over the area with hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches for many hours. Will increase storm totals to widespread 9-12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches SE of a line from Victoria to Columbus to Cleveland including much of Harris County. NW of this line rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated totals of 8-10 inches will be possible.
Rainfall of this magnitude will cause very significant flooding.
Tides:
Tides will be on the rise today and reach 4.5-5.5 ft all area tonight. This will result in coastal flooding along much of the upper TX coast. Critical areas will be Bolivar, west Galveston Is, Seabrook, Kemah, Surfside, and Clear Lake.
Tides will remain high into midday Sunday.
Winds:
Will bump winds up a little more on the coast as latest guidance is stronger with 30-45mph likely. Stronger storms will bring wind energy to the surface in strong gust with some up to 50mph possible. Offshore winds sustained at above 40mph look likely…Gale Warning criteria. Wind maximum should be between midnight and 900am Sunday as surface low passes over SE TX.
Actions:
Residents should be prepared for flash flood conditions.
Travel after 300pm this afternoon is not advised
Flooding of structures will becoming increasingly likely across the area. Be prepared to take quick actions from rising water this evening and overnight into Sunday. Flooding may result in areas that normally do not flood to flood.
24-hr Storm Totals:
***Extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flood event today-Sunday!***
Flash Flood Watch is in effect
Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect
Gale Warning issued for all coastal waters
Rainfall:
Excessive rainfall event is underway and starting to move into SE TX. Widespread flooding is ongoing over central and north Texas after 5-7 inches of rainfall over C TX this morning. Corsicana, TX has recorded over 18.0 inches and Waco almost 8 inches. Austin has recorded over 6 inches. LCRA is now operating flood gates at Tom Miller Dam.
Factors now in place to produce a potentially devastating flash flood over SE TX from late this morning through noon Sunday…TAKE THIS THREAT SERIOUSLY!
Core of Patricia now over central TX and racing toward S TX and will move right over SE TX tonight and Sunday while a slow moving cold front moves into the area. Excessive rainfall will develop and train over the area with hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches for many hours. Will increase storm totals to widespread 9-12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches SE of a line from Victoria to Columbus to Cleveland including much of Harris County. NW of this line rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated totals of 8-10 inches will be possible.
Rainfall of this magnitude will cause very significant flooding.
Tides:
Tides will be on the rise today and reach 4.5-5.5 ft all area tonight. This will result in coastal flooding along much of the upper TX coast. Critical areas will be Bolivar, west Galveston Is, Seabrook, Kemah, Surfside, and Clear Lake.
Tides will remain high into midday Sunday.
Winds:
Will bump winds up a little more on the coast as latest guidance is stronger with 30-45mph likely. Stronger storms will bring wind energy to the surface in strong gust with some up to 50mph possible. Offshore winds sustained at above 40mph look likely…Gale Warning criteria. Wind maximum should be between midnight and 900am Sunday as surface low passes over SE TX.
Actions:
Residents should be prepared for flash flood conditions.
Travel after 300pm this afternoon is not advised
Flooding of structures will becoming increasingly likely across the area. Be prepared to take quick actions from rising water this evening and overnight into Sunday. Flooding may result in areas that normally do not flood to flood.
24-hr Storm Totals:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE TX COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SE
LOWER MI...NE INDIANA...AND NW OH...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 P.M. EDT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH THE RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF INDIANA AND OH THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...A SLOW-MOVING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD FROM NW
MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
INVOF S TX AND THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA WILL EJECT NEWD OVER S TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S/SE TX THROUGH TONIGHT.
...TX COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY PRESENT OVER S TX WHERE PW
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.5 INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS PERSIST
IN THE MID 70S. A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY IS SAGGING SEWD TOWARD S
CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO N TX. THE
PRESENCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARIES...RECORD PW VALUES FOR LATE
OCTOBER...AND THE APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
OCCUR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.
...SE LOWER MI/NE INDIANA/NW OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LOWER
MI...INDIANA...AND NW OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. A BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF 40-50 KT FLOW
MIDLEVEL FLOW.
..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 10/24/2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE TX COAST...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SE
LOWER MI...NE INDIANA...AND NW OH...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 P.M. EDT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH THE RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF INDIANA AND OH THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...A SLOW-MOVING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD FROM NW
MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED
INVOF S TX AND THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
PATRICIA WILL EJECT NEWD OVER S TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S/SE TX THROUGH TONIGHT.
...TX COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY PRESENT OVER S TX WHERE PW
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.5 INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS PERSIST
IN THE MID 70S. A RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY IS SAGGING SEWD TOWARD S
CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO N TX. THE
PRESENCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARIES...RECORD PW VALUES FOR LATE
OCTOBER...AND THE APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
OCCUR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST. THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.
...SE LOWER MI/NE INDIANA/NW OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LOWER
MI...INDIANA...AND NW OH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. A BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF 40-50 KT FLOW
MIDLEVEL FLOW.
..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 10/24/2015
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
From Nesdis:
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/15 1335Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE FOR ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF CLL WSW
TOWARDS S OF DRT CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY S. OVER THE PAST HOUR VIS
IMAGERY WAS ALSO INDICATING A PREFRONTAL AREA OF ENHANCED UPDRAFTS
THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST E OF LRD. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT UPPER TROF WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM WAS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS
OF N MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH VERY ACTIVE WCB/SUBTROPICAL STREAM, WITH
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WITHIN, EXTENDING FROM SUBTROPICAL E PAC NE TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS WERE MODEST AT BEST
WITH SHORTWAVE TROF OVER N MEXICO, A STRATOSPHERIC EXTRUSION WAS NOTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SW NM AND N MEXICO ON LATEST GOES-RGB PRODUCTS THAT
WAS AMPLIFYING SE AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED CURVATURE AND
DEVELOPING INFLECTION WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM. THIS WAS SUGGESTIVE TO
A BROAD INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING WHICH WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL REMAINS OF PATRICIA APPROACHING S TX AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CYLOGENESIS ENSUE ON SW PORTION OF SINKING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AND BLENDED PW ANALYSIS, AS EXPECTED, WAS INDICATING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL TX WITH PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 200% ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES AND PW AT BRO APPROACHING
AN ALL TIME RECORD OCTOBER VALUE. RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY WAS LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION WITH MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH SMALL AREA OF MORE MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER FAR S TX.
STILL THOUGH, ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES COMBINED WITH TALL SKINNY CAPES
AND DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYERS OF 4.5-5.0KM WOULD SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS LARGER SCALE FORCING
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. PLEASE SEE MOST RECENT FFGMPD AND
QPFERD FOR MORE INFORMATION AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/15 1335Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE FOR ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
NARROW LINE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF CLL WSW
TOWARDS S OF DRT CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY S. OVER THE PAST HOUR VIS
IMAGERY WAS ALSO INDICATING A PREFRONTAL AREA OF ENHANCED UPDRAFTS
THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING JUST E OF LRD. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT UPPER TROF WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM WAS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS
OF N MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH VERY ACTIVE WCB/SUBTROPICAL STREAM, WITH
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WITHIN, EXTENDING FROM SUBTROPICAL E PAC NE TOWARDS
THE E GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS WERE MODEST AT BEST
WITH SHORTWAVE TROF OVER N MEXICO, A STRATOSPHERIC EXTRUSION WAS NOTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SW NM AND N MEXICO ON LATEST GOES-RGB PRODUCTS THAT
WAS AMPLIFYING SE AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED CURVATURE AND
DEVELOPING INFLECTION WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM. THIS WAS SUGGESTIVE TO
A BROAD INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING WHICH WAS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF MID LEVEL REMAINS OF PATRICIA APPROACHING S TX AND
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CYLOGENESIS ENSUE ON SW PORTION OF SINKING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AND BLENDED PW ANALYSIS, AS EXPECTED, WAS INDICATING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL TX WITH PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 200% ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES AND PW AT BRO APPROACHING
AN ALL TIME RECORD OCTOBER VALUE. RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY WAS LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION WITH MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH SMALL AREA OF MORE MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER FAR S TX.
STILL THOUGH, ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES COMBINED WITH TALL SKINNY CAPES
AND DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYERS OF 4.5-5.0KM WOULD SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS LARGER SCALE FORCING
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. PLEASE SEE MOST RECENT FFGMPD AND
QPFERD FOR MORE INFORMATION AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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12Z 12km NAM precipitation totals for the next 36 hours suggest some areas seeing 14 to 16+ inches of rain by tomorrow evening.
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
914 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 912 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH WATER POTENTIALLY
COVERING ROADWAYS.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...SEADRIFT...GUADALUPE...POINT COMFORT...
POINT COMFORT...VICTORIA DETAR HOSPITAL NORTH...LONG MOTT...
DACOSTA...WOOD HI...VICTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...DOWNTOWN
VICTORIA...INDIANOLA...KAMEY...MAGNOLIA BEACH...KAMAY...ALAMO
BEACH...VICTORIA COLONY CREEK COUNTRY CLUB...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND
SAXET LAKES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
914 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
* AT 912 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH WATER POTENTIALLY
COVERING ROADWAYS.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...SEADRIFT...GUADALUPE...POINT COMFORT...
POINT COMFORT...VICTORIA DETAR HOSPITAL NORTH...LONG MOTT...
DACOSTA...WOOD HI...VICTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...DOWNTOWN
VICTORIA...INDIANOLA...KAMEY...MAGNOLIA BEACH...KAMAY...ALAMO
BEACH...VICTORIA COLONY CREEK COUNTRY CLUB...VICTORIA COLLEGE AND
SAXET LAKES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
TS Patricia advancing rather quickly across Mexico and near the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A shortwave across the Del Rio area is dropping SSE and surface cyclogenesis (Coastal Low) is beginning to start in response to Patricia nearing S Texas. Look for conditions to begin deteriorating quickly across Central and SE Texas the next couple of hours. Flash Flooding reports are streaming in from Brownsville on N and E.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Getting reports of a possible small tornado HWY 288 @ Beltway 8.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
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- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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New Mesoscale Discussion is coming in shortly for S Central and SE Texas...
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0608
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1116 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 241515Z - 242115Z
SUMMARY...VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...LEADING TO ADDTIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...20-30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2-2.5 INCH PWS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEX AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEX NORTHWARD TO ALONG A NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE
FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BOUNDARY
SLOWING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTING AHEAD OF A WEAK
WAVE MOVING OUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH TX LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPPER DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LARGER SCALE LIFT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH TX AND THE TX
COAST...INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES AS
INDICATED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND BRO...WITH ABOVE
FREEZING LEVELS EXTENDING 4.5-5 KM...SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
PEREIRA
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0608
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1116 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 241515Z - 242115Z
SUMMARY...VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...LEADING TO ADDTIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...20-30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 2-2.5 INCH PWS FROM NORTHEASTERN MEX AND THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEX NORTHWARD TO ALONG A NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE
FRONT DROPPING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BOUNDARY
SLOWING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW PERSISTING AHEAD OF A WEAK
WAVE MOVING OUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH TX LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. UPPER DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
LARGER SCALE LIFT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH TX AND THE TX
COAST...INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES AS
INDICATED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CRP AND BRO...WITH ABOVE
FREEZING LEVELS EXTENDING 4.5-5 KM...SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...HI-RES GUIDANCE FROM
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.
PEREIRA
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
make calls @ your own risk: https://twitter.com/GrasswireNow/status ... 7245437952
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@GrasswireNow
Comcast, AT&T say calls from the U.S. to phone numbers in Mexico are currently free following #HurricanePatricia
Grasswire Now
@GrasswireNow
Comcast, AT&T say calls from the U.S. to phone numbers in Mexico are currently free following #HurricanePatricia