Wx Infinity Forums

Time for the October 2015 thread!

Will the cooler weather start stepping down?

Will October 2015 be wet?

BlueJay wrote:Will October 2015 be wet?

Usually El Nino favors a wet October.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_oct

Top 10 Wettest
17.64 1949
16.05 1984
14.65 2002
14.53 2006
13.16 2009
10.85 1960
10.62 1994
10.23 1941
9.89 1907
9.86 1913

By El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral

El Nino
1913
1941
1994
2002
2006
2009

La Nina
1907
1949
1960
1984

Six of the ten wettest Octobers occurred in El Nino.

Top 10 Driest
Trace 1934
0.01 1963
0.01 1944
0.02 2010
0.02 1952
0.03 1889
0.05 1978
0.09 1948
0.17 1987
0.23 1961

By El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral

El Nino
1963
1978
1987

La Nina
1889
1934
1944
1948
1961
2010

Neutral
1952

Three of the ten occurred in El Nino. The El Ninos were weak or fading away. They mostly occurred in La Nina.

Thanks for the info Ptarmigan.
Kludge - We are dry here too.

Even I am a bit ready for a bit of frost on the pumpkins! (I can't believe that I just typed that!!!)

Several things we will need to monitor as we end September and begin October. There are some indications that the sub tropical jet may begin to get rather noisy possibly increasing our rain chances next weekend into the first full week of October. There also are growing indications that the Polar Jet Stream may begin to buckle as the teleconnection indices respond and cooler weather develops East of the Rockies. Another potential fly in the ointment is a landfalling Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone bringing some healthy rainfall chances across Texas during early October. Fingers crossed, we will finally see a real change in the weather pattern that brings moisture back to areas that need it across the Lone Star State.

End watering season.

Begin brown patch season.

If the 12Z GFS is correct, a fairly strong early Fall cold front will pass Sunday afternoon into early next Monday. Temperatures in the low 60's to low 70's for daytime highs should feel refreshing...if the models are correct.

"IF"....the biggest word in the human language.....lol

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GFS is correct, a fairly strong early Fall cold front will pass Sunday afternoon into early next Monday. Temperatures in the low 60's to low 70's for daytime highs should feel refreshing...if the models are correct.

I say bring it!

Should of came before the total lunar eclipse.

Onward to October. Slight rain and thunderstorm chances mainly along the Upper TX Coast today as the area of low pressure just offshore transitions into a trough and moves NE tonight. Any potential tropical cyclone threat is pretty much nil for the Upper TX Coast after Oct 1st. Only 2 tropical cyclones have directly impacted the Upper TX Coast in 135 years after Oct 1st. Even better news, beginning Wednesday and lasting through the weekend will be some beautiful Fall weather so get ready to enjoy.

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Vertically stacked upper level and surface low SE of Galveston this morning will begin to move eastward today with decreasing rain chances across SE TX.

Air mass remains generally moist this morning with dewpoints in the 60’s and once surface temperatures rise into the low to mid 80’s showers and thunderstorms will likely develop on the northwest side of the NW Gulf of Mexico low. Storm motions will be toward the south-southwest and fairly quick. Expecting about 30-40% coverage and this should be the last day of rainfall potential this week.

Of interest is the potential for a decent cool front to arrive into the area Thursday and Friday allowing a very dry air mass to sweep into the region. Models have the front arriving late Thursday into early Friday with weak cold air advection on Friday. NNE winds out or surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will drive a low dewpoint air mass (40’s) into the region. Latest GFS guidance shows a high of only 81 on Friday and lows into the mid 50’s over the weekend. This seems reasonable given the expected dry air mass that will be in place allowing good overnight cooling conditions.

Extended:
Upper air pattern begins to undergo change by early next week as October brings in a more fall like pattern. Potential for a deepening SW US trough through mid week begins to bring Gulf and Pacific moisture into TX with varying solutions as to when and how fast this upper level trough moves into and across TX late next week.

srainhoutx wrote:Several things we will need to monitor as we end September and begin October. There are some indications that the sub tropical jet may begin to get rather noisy possibly increasing our rain chances next weekend into the first full week of October. There also are growing indications that the Polar Jet Stream may begin to buckle as the teleconnection indices respond and cooler weather develops East of the Rockies. Another potential fly in the ointment is a landfalling Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone bringing some healthy rainfall chances across Texas during early October. Fingers crossed, we will finally see a real change in the weather pattern that brings moisture back to areas that need it across the Lone Star State.

What does a "noisy sub tropical jet" mean? I've heard the term many times but am unfamiliar.

Man, this place is dead! We've got a pretty darn good cool front coming in to give us fall like temperatures through the weekend and no one is excited about it a little? I guess it will take a cat. 4 hurricane coming towards us to get this place picked up a little.

redneckweather wrote:Man, this place is dead! We've got a pretty darn good cool front coming in to give us fall like temperatures through the weekend and no one is excited about it a little? I guess it will take a cat. 4 hurricane coming towards us to get this place picked up a little.

Joaquin is now a Category 4 hurricane. It has a central pressure of 931 millibars. That is the lowest since Dean in 2007!

Cromagnum wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Several things we will need to monitor as we end September and begin October. There are some indications that the sub tropical jet may begin to get rather noisy possibly increasing our rain chances next weekend into the first full week of October. There also are growing indications that the Polar Jet Stream may begin to buckle as the teleconnection indices respond and cooler weather develops East of the Rockies. Another potential fly in the ointment is a landfalling Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone bringing some healthy rainfall chances across Texas during early October. Fingers crossed, we will finally see a real change in the weather pattern that brings moisture back to areas that need it across the Lone Star State.

What does a "noisy sub tropical jet" mean? I've heard the term many times but am unfamiliar.

Basically in a nutshell, A Noisy sub-tropical jet means there are multiple weather systems riding in the Sub Tropical Jet Stream and if they are positioned right for Texas, our boring weather pattern will come to an end with increasing chances for rain.

What an absolutely gorgeous weekend on tap for SE Texas. This is what we live for in our part of the world. Get out and enjoy this cooler and drier weather. Rain may return later next week as a combination of another front and tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific heads our way.

Dewpoints in the 40s in CLL for the first time in many months - back to April I think.

Joaquin an impressive fish cuisinart as it's doled around the Bahamas long enough for the trough to nudge it north and out to sea.

What a beautiful weekend to kickoff October! We could use some rain however - maybe we will get lucky later this week.

FWIW...it won't be another 1,000 years before SC has that much rain again. I just don't put much stock in those statistics.

Prayers are with the South Carolina flood victims ...... It truly is a historical event that is devastating. We know how floods affect our area, and it truly is amazing to watch what mother nature continues to do even at this hour to South Carolina.