October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[jasons2k]

We are in an El Niño. But that's not the only driver for our climate. The El Niño typically brings us more rain. At the same time the warm Atlantic and Gulf of Alaska typically give us dry weather. Jeff is basically saying it's an arm wrestle between the signals for dominance over the winter and spring rainfall pattern - whether or not El Niño will be strong enough to overcome the dry signals and give us more rainfall remains to be seen.

PS - thanks Jeff for the explanation.

[srainhoutx]

Typically I would dismiss anything beyond 5 to 7 days via the ensemble guidance as folly, but there are some indications that our pattern may begin to transition and become a bit more unsettled next week and possibly extending in the end of October. Since the Forum has been extremely quiet since the end of August when there was active weather, perhaps we can begin to look more at the potential of what our El Nino Winter will bring and let those that have some long range prognostications offer their thoughts and spark some conversation around this place.

[redneckweather]

Thanks for posting that Jason. Here is to hoping that El Nino will be able to overwhelm the pattern before too long. Srain's latest post offers hope.

[jeff]

Quick question Jeff (since nothing in our weather world is going on). You state, "can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas." I thought we are currently in an El Nino pattern which will be leading into a cold n wet late fall/winter season? That is what I hear all the forecasters saying. Are you saying we are NOT presently in am El Nino weather pattern but still in a drought weather pattern? It's either one or the other. Just looking for clarification on the current pattern we are in which I thought was an El Nino pattern. Thanks.

Warm phase ENSO or El Nino is just warming of the Pacific Equator region...teleconnections generally support wetter and cooler in the southern plains...but it is not a certainty. Other teleconnections as mentioned can/could reduce the "wetter" and "cooler" conditions in the southern plains even with a strong winter warm phase ENSO in place. If one only looks at El Nino for a long term forecast...it could end up being wrong if one does not factor in other important teleconnections. I do think this El Nino will eventually produce its expected wet and cool in Texas, but it may not be as extreme on the wet and cool as it could be if the Atlantic and northern Pacific were colder with respect to SST's.

[Paul Robison]

Shower and thunderstorm chances look a little better with the frontal passage beginning late tonight and Tuesday with a 30-40% chance across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast. Beginning Wednesday its more sunny skies, low humidity, and slightly lower temps with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s through next weekend.

Any strong/severe storms likely from this?

[Katdaddy]

No strong to severe storms with front Paul. Hopefully some areas will see a few scattered showers. I could use a little more before several more dry and mostly Sundays begin Wednesday.

[Ptarmigan]

No strong to severe storms with front Paul. Hopefully some areas will see a few scattered showers. I could use a little more before several more dry and mostly Sundays begin Wednesday.

We could use more rain for sure.

[texoz]

It was 99 degrees at Camp Mabry today. Rain would be nice.

[Paul Robison]

Anybody have the latest forecast soundings from Tex. A&M?

[Katdaddy]

The best chances of showers and an isolated thunderstorms will occur along the immediate coastal areas where a 40% exist while a 20% exists over central portions of SE TX including Houston metro. Much drier air begins to filter in overnight with lows dropping into the low to mid 50s N of -I-10 and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Another cool front will arrive Friday night into Saturday and bring more dry air and slightly cooler temp.

[Cromagnum]

Its starting to seem like its going to be another 0% rain event.

[redneckweather]

Showers are forming along the front along the coast. The rest of the viewing area, not going to happen as dry air has filtered in into the area. The dryness continues.

Patiently waiting on what stain has to say on what he posted yesterday.

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed the overnight ensembles are correct in breaking down the pesky upper ridge enough to bring a change in the upper air pattern across Texas allowing a bit more of a chance of some much needed rainfall mid next week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

A few areas seeing a quick shower this morning mainly along and south of US 59.

Weak cool front is progressing through the region with a much drier air mass poised to move into the area late this morning and this afternoon. Upstream dewpoint of 45 at Waco versus 74 at BUSH IAH. Surface front appears to be between Conroe and BUSH IAH with a pre-frontal trough out ahead of the boundary helping to fire off the showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Incoming dry air will actually help heat afternoon highs to above normal levels yet again today… into the mid to upper 80’s and even a few lower 90’s. Dry air will also cool quickly at night allowing temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50’s on Wednesday morning. Pattern will remain in place through the rest of the week with a slow moderation of overnight lows into the 60’s by the end of the week. Air mass will be bone dry with no rainfall expected.

Another front arrives on Saturday, but pre-frontal air mass is dry and this will be little more than a wind shift and another round of cooler overnight lows. Long range does show some hope of wetting rainfall by the middle of next week and even more toward late October.

Fire Weather:
Main concern the next several days will be fire weather conditions as recent days have been very dry and severe to extreme drought conditions have returned to SE TX north of HWY 105. Very dry air mass incoming will lower afternoon RH to near 20-25% this afternoon north of I-10. Wind speeds of 10-15mph will be found over the northern and northwestern portions of SE TX where widespread KBDI values above 700 are noted indicating extremely dry fine fuels. Winds speeds will be below Red Flag Warning criteria, but fire conditions will be certainly elevated and residents should use extreme caution. Generally the same conditions on Wednesday and Thursday with less wind, but still extremely dry.

Next critical period is likely Saturday into Sunday with the next frontal passage which looks dry, but will increase winds.

[DoctorMu]

GFS potential flip next Wednesday (10/21) with mostly cloudy, chance of rain, high 70s into the end of October.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a fairly significant pattern change across the Southern Plains beginning next week and continuing into the last days of October. If the GFS is correct, we could see a return to a very unsettled pattern in the medium to longer range with several rounds of heavy rainfall and even a couple of strong frontal boundaries sweeping across Texas as we near Halloween.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like there is fairly good agreement among the 12Z suite of Global computer guidance. The guidance suggests an omega block developing across the N Pacific that leads to a rather deep and potent trough along the lee side of the Rockies into the Great Plains. That would suggest an unsettled pattern is possible if the models are correct.

[BiggieSmalls]

Is it safe to say we are done with 90s for the year after Friday? That alone would be good news.

[Cromagnum]

Well, we've already missed out on an entire month of fall. Only 2 months and a week until winter technically starts.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff is monitoring a lot of wildfire incidents across Central Texas this evening. Folks need to be particularly careful the next 5 to 6 days until this pattern breaks.