October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[snowman65]

92 on Oct 19...lol...BBBRRRRR...Bundle up folks!

[snowman65]

I call hogwash on this....

http://www.weather.com/tv/shows/amhq/vi ... for-winter

[DoctorMu]

El Niño years that run dry and warm in Sept - Oct often flip in November. We'll see...

[srainhoutx]

The weekly Update of the new experimental Climate Prediction Center Week 3 to 4 Outlook does tend to suggest once we near the end of October and begin November, perhaps some changes evolve in this persistent boring weather pattern. Updates are issued every Friday for this new Experimental CPC Week 3 to 4 Product.

[TxLady]

I'm so thankful that last Saturday's weather was absolutely perfect for my get-together. But, I'm really starting to wonder if/when the much advertised pattern-change will begin. We need some rain. The cooler temps have been sneaking in; but, there hasn't been much moisture. After the Spring we had, I would've never imagined that we'd be begging for some rain.

[jasons2k]

It's getting really dry. I also can't believe it after the spring we had and El Niño continuing. Like I've pointed out before, tree stress is a long term and cumulative thing. A couple of wet months isn't an instant cure. We really need a couple of wet years to get things back to normal.

[jeff]

A warm Atlantic (note the impressive warming since June) and a continued warm Gulf of Alaska region support southern plains drought...ie same pattern we have been in for years. Big question is can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas.

On a side note...conditions for the 2016 hurricane season in the Atlantic are starting to look very favorable with extremely warm SST's and below average wind shear as El Nino wanes by next summer. These warm SST's in the Atlantic is one region we have had so many named storms this season even in the face of the generally unfavorable El Nino conditions. The Atlantic is giving us hints of what is to come.

[redneckweather]

Quick question Jeff (since nothing in our weather world is going on). You state, "can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas." I thought we are currently in an El Nino pattern which will be leading into a cold n wet late fall/winter season? That is what I hear all the forecasters saying. Are you saying we are NOT presently in am El Nino weather pattern but still in a drought weather pattern? It's either one or the other. Just looking for clarification on the current pattern we are in which I thought was an El Nino pattern. Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

The latest 12Z guidance suggests more of the same. The longer range data suggests the 'possibly' a bit of unsettle weather if the Central and Eastern Pacific cooperates for Texas. We will see.

[Katdaddy]

Shower and thunderstorm chances look a little better with the frontal passage beginning late tonight and Tuesday with a 30-40% chance across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast. Beginning Wednesday its more sunny skies, low humidity, and slightly lower temps with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s through next weekend.

[jasons2k]

We are in an El Niño. But that's not the only driver for our climate. The El Niño typically brings us more rain. At the same time the warm Atlantic and Gulf of Alaska typically give us dry weather. Jeff is basically saying it's an arm wrestle between the signals for dominance over the winter and spring rainfall pattern - whether or not El Niño will be strong enough to overcome the dry signals and give us more rainfall remains to be seen.

PS - thanks Jeff for the explanation.

[srainhoutx]

Typically I would dismiss anything beyond 5 to 7 days via the ensemble guidance as folly, but there are some indications that our pattern may begin to transition and become a bit more unsettled next week and possibly extending in the end of October. Since the Forum has been extremely quiet since the end of August when there was active weather, perhaps we can begin to look more at the potential of what our El Nino Winter will bring and let those that have some long range prognostications offer their thoughts and spark some conversation around this place.

[redneckweather]

Thanks for posting that Jason. Here is to hoping that El Nino will be able to overwhelm the pattern before too long. Srain's latest post offers hope.

[jeff]

Quick question Jeff (since nothing in our weather world is going on). You state, "can El Nino overwhelm this pattern and bring wet weather to Texas." I thought we are currently in an El Nino pattern which will be leading into a cold n wet late fall/winter season? That is what I hear all the forecasters saying. Are you saying we are NOT presently in am El Nino weather pattern but still in a drought weather pattern? It's either one or the other. Just looking for clarification on the current pattern we are in which I thought was an El Nino pattern. Thanks.

Warm phase ENSO or El Nino is just warming of the Pacific Equator region...teleconnections generally support wetter and cooler in the southern plains...but it is not a certainty. Other teleconnections as mentioned can/could reduce the "wetter" and "cooler" conditions in the southern plains even with a strong winter warm phase ENSO in place. If one only looks at El Nino for a long term forecast...it could end up being wrong if one does not factor in other important teleconnections. I do think this El Nino will eventually produce its expected wet and cool in Texas, but it may not be as extreme on the wet and cool as it could be if the Atlantic and northern Pacific were colder with respect to SST's.

[Paul Robison]

Shower and thunderstorm chances look a little better with the frontal passage beginning late tonight and Tuesday with a 30-40% chance across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast. Beginning Wednesday its more sunny skies, low humidity, and slightly lower temps with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s through next weekend.

Any strong/severe storms likely from this?

[Katdaddy]

No strong to severe storms with front Paul. Hopefully some areas will see a few scattered showers. I could use a little more before several more dry and mostly Sundays begin Wednesday.

[Ptarmigan]

No strong to severe storms with front Paul. Hopefully some areas will see a few scattered showers. I could use a little more before several more dry and mostly Sundays begin Wednesday.

We could use more rain for sure.

[texoz]

It was 99 degrees at Camp Mabry today. Rain would be nice.

[Paul Robison]

Anybody have the latest forecast soundings from Tex. A&M?

[Katdaddy]

The best chances of showers and an isolated thunderstorms will occur along the immediate coastal areas where a 40% exist while a 20% exists over central portions of SE TX including Houston metro. Much drier air begins to filter in overnight with lows dropping into the low to mid 50s N of -I-10 and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Another cool front will arrive Friday night into Saturday and bring more dry air and slightly cooler temp.