October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[nuby3]

I'm starting to think even still the rainfall totals might be under done

[srainhoutx]

Surface pressures along the S Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coasts continue to fall suggesting a Coastal Low is developing as TD Patricia remnants approach S Texas.

[sambucol]

What is the timing for the flooding rains in the Mont Belvieu/Baytown area to arrive?

[srainhoutx]

Update from HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1114 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...DANGEROUS MAJOR STORM EVENT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR LATE TODAY AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECORD HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS SO FAR. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OF 4 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND AND 6 TO 12 INCHES TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT LINE ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND
MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STORM ROTATION THAT COULD LEAD TO FUNNEL
CLOUDS AND/OR TORNADOES. THIS DANGEROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST BOTH AHEAD OF THIS
STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BEHIND THIS STORM ON SUNDAY. 42

[srainhoutx]

What is the timing for the flooding rains in the Mont Belvieu/Baytown area to arrive?

This evening through tomorrow morning as the Coastal Low moves up the Coast, Sambucol.

[unome]

was just looking at pressures

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

MCMULLEN-LA SALLE-WEBB-BEE-SAN PATRICIO-JIM WELLS-DUVAL-LIVE OAK-
1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
MCMULLEN...NORTHWESTERN SAN PATRICIO...NORTHEASTERN WEBB...LIVE
OAK...SOUTHWESTERN BEE...NORTHERN DUVAL...NORTHERN JIM WELLS AND
SOUTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES...

AT 1123 AM CDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS EXTENDING FROM BEEVILLE TO
NEAR COTULLA...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEEVILLE...MATHIS...GEORGE WEST...LAKE CITY...MIDWAY...LOMA ALTA...
CLEGG...MOUNT LUCAS...RANCHO DE LA PARITA...SEVEN SISTERS...TYNAN...
ANNAROSE...FORT EWELL SITE...RIVER CREEK ACRES...ARGENTA...LAGARTO...
DINERO...LAKESIDE...LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AND PERNITAS POINT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

[Rip76]

Surface pressures along the S Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coasts continue to fall suggesting a Coastal Low is developing as TD Patricia remnants approach S Texas.

Interesting... And totally sniffed out by the models.

[srainhoutx]

Slight Risk for Severe Storms coming in from the Storm Prediction Center. Text and Graphics to follow shortly.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LOWER
MI/IND/OH...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 P.M. EDT.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TX...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA
TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...APPROACHING
DEEP SOUTH TX. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER VORTICITY
CENTER APPROACHES THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THE INLAND EXTENT OF A FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE IMMEDIATE TX GULF COAST TO SLIGHT RISK DUE
TO THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF TORNADOES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER
MI/IND/OH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AFFECTING THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOW-TOPPED FAST-MOVING
ROTATING/BOWING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..HART/BROYLES.. 10/24/2015

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center Expands the High Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1053 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT OCT 24 2015 - 12Z SUN OCT 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ENE KCMB 20 NNE KEMK 55 SE KOPM 35 SSW MMMA 55 SSW MMRX
35 W MFE 25 WSW HBV 35 NNW LRD 10 ENE MMPG 20 WSW DRT 35 NNW DRT
55 SW BWD 20 WSW NFW 30 ESE ASG 30 WSW POF 10 NE JBR 15 SW LIT
10 E ELD 35 NNE ESF 20 ENE KCMB.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E KGVX 10 E KBBF 15 SSE KMIU 10 SW PIL 20 WSW MMMA 25 S MMRX
MMRX BKS 35 NW ALI 30 E COT 10 NE UVA 25 E ECU 25 N 6R9
15 SE GVT 15 SE LBR 30 WSW TXK 25 ENE 4F4 25 WSW GGG 20 W OCH
20 SE LFK 25 SE JAS 15 SW LCH 25 E KGVX.

HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW KBBF 15 E 2R8 20 W RKP 55 WSW VCT 10 SSE RND 30 ESE T82
10 ESE BMQ TPL 25 NNW LHB 15 WSW CLL DWH 35 NE EFD 25 NNE KXIH
20 NNE KGVX 15 ENE KBQX 15 NW KBBF.


1500 UTC UPDATE

OVERALL---NO CHANGES IN THE THINKING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WERE TO EXPAND THE HIGH
RISK AREA NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FWD WFO GIVEN THE NEW FFG VALUES THAT HAVE
LOWERED GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINS. THE HIGH RISK WAS ALSO
EXPANDED WESTWARD ACROSS MORE OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF EWD WFO
AND SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF CRP AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BRO
WFO. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR WAS TRIMMED
BACK TO FAR SOUTHWEST AR GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE 1200 UTC
NAM AND NAM CONEST DO NOT DEVIATE FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WIDESPREAD 5-10"+ PRECIP TOTALS FOR THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX. THE NAM CONEST WHICH
USUALLY HAS A HIGH BIAS IS SHOWING A MAX OVER 20" OVER SOUTHEAST
TX---BUT WITH WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR---THESE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT UNREASONABLE.

ORAVEC

[unome]

skies are dumping here right now

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-24

[srainhoutx]

Midday Briefing from Jeff:

Dangerous high impact storm system will affect SE TX tonight

Galveston County has issued a voluntary evacuation of Bolivar Peninsula effective at 1100am this morning.

Coastal Flood Warning is in effect

Gale Warning is in effect

Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Rainfall:
Significant and dangerous flash flood event starting to unfold over SE TX. Radar shows numerous and widespread showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall from Matagorda Bay SW to near Brownsville lifting northward into SE TX. Rainfall rates are starting to increase over SE TX and suspect flash flood warnings will be required in the next few hours from Matagorda Bay northward toward College Station as totals begin to stack up. Models remain in decent agreement on “incredible” rainfall totals over SE TX this evening into the overnight hours especially along and SE of US 59. CRP morning sounding came in with a record PWS value for this data, so this juicy air mass is primed and ready to go. Rainfall nearing 20 inches at Corsicana, TX yesterday and this morning certainly illustrates the ability of this air mass to produce some really big totals.

Widespread rainfall of 9-12 inches will be possible along and SE of US 59 with 4-8 inches NW of US 59 by midday tomorrow. Such totals in 24 hours would be near our 1% or 100-yr rainfall frequencies for this area.

Additionally, high hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches will be possible.

Significant flooding will result if these totals are realized.

Tides:
Starting the upward trend toward high tide early this evening which should be the highest of the last several days. Expecting values still in the 4.5-5.5ft range along the entire upper TX coast which will likely cause minor to moderate coastal flooding especially on Bolivar.

Winds/Tornadoes:
Expecting winds to increase this afternoon and really crank up this evening offshore and along the coast with gusts of 40-45mph possible and sustained 40mph+ offshore. Could see some minor wind damage and power outages along the coast tonight.

Did have a tornado this morning along the south Beltway at Cullen Rd…and this air mass will remain capable of such weak short lived tornadoes through the duration of this event.

[nuby3]

looking like a nasty day around alice today. lots of boundaries colliding

[brooksgarner]

I'm reaching out to the NWS to see if they are confirming the possible tornado at 288 and the Beltway. (Storm Chaser, Reed Timmer just arrived in Houston to chase the flood/tornado threat.) KHOU will be here 24/7 this weekend with a heavy emphasis on Facebook/Twitter with not only forecast updates but live video (chats) and more. Please join us. My FB is (shortcut --> http://BrooksGarner.com)

[Rip76]

Brooks, there is already video out there.

[srainhoutx]

I'm reaching out to the NWS to see if they are confirming the possible tornado at 288 and the Beltway. (Storm Chaser, Reed Timmer just arrived in Houston to chase the flood/tornado threat.) KHOU will be here 24/7 this weekend with a heavy emphasis on Facebook/Twitter with not only forecast updates but live video (chats) and more. Please join us. My FB is (shortcut --> http://BrooksGarner.com)

Brooks, perhaps you can give the Weather Forum a shout out on your live chats and Facebook feeds as well. We are a partnership in our weather endeavors as well reaching a wider audience for providing Public Safety Information.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/15 1729Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1715Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE FOR ONGOING/DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LARGER
SCALE TROF OVER NW MEXICO HAS FURTHER AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE, WHERE GOES RGB WAS SHOWING A CONTINUED
STRATOSPHERIC EXTRUSION WITHIN UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE, OVER NW MEXICO.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DOWNSTREAM WCB/SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO TAKE ON AN
INCREASING AREA OF CURVATURE WITH DEVELOPING INFLECTION APPROACHING W TX
SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN LARGER SCALE FORCING. SMALLER SCALE REMNANTS
OF PATRICIA CONTINUES LIFTING NE WITHIN THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM
AND WAS APPROACHING THE MFE REGION AND HELPING TO ENHANCE MESOSCALE
FORCING WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. CONCURRENT
WITH THIS, HAVE NOTED A NUMBER OF ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL TX COAST EXTENDING WSW TO S TX. AT THE SURFACE, LATEST
MESOANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS FROM
THE VIC OF JUST W OF SHV AND ARCING S TOWARDS JUST N OF LRD. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A PRESSURE FALL AXIS DEVELOPING FROM
PORTIONS OF SE TX EXTENDING SW TOWARDS FAR S TX AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE AS CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENSUE OVER PORTIONS OF S TX
AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPSTREAM TROF. AREA VWPS WERE ALSO INDICATING THAT
85H LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL
REGIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. S SURGING EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO
PORTIONS OF S TX WILL ALSO MERGE WITH A NUMBER OF DEVELOPING AREAS OF
CONVECTION TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THIS REGION.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND SHOULD INCREASE
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE FLUX THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM PW VALUES APPEARED TO
BE IN THE VIC OF THE CRP REGION WHERE RECENT GPS DATA WAS INDICATING
PW VALUES OF AROUND 2.60". INCREASING INFLOW TOWARDS DIFFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN OVERSPREADING THE REGION WOULD ALSO IMPLY A THREAT OF BACKWARD
PROPAGATING/REGENERATING CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGIONS TO ENHANCE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi just completed an early Special 18Z Balloon Launch. A record breaking October PW of 2.70 inches was recorded.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

TXZ237-241800-
BRAZORIA TX-
1237 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1236 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONES CREEK...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT...
MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. WE ARE MONITORING WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE JACKSON...BRAZORIA AND JONES CREEK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[srainhoutx]

10242015 mcd1880.gif (10.43 KiB) Viewed 3698 times

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241750Z - 242015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO RISK ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE PATRICIA SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL A COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY
SWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF S TX AND ADJACENT NERN MEXICO...THOUGH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS BEING HINDERED ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES WITHIN
THE CRP /CORPUS CHRISTI/ CWA. S AND E OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS PERSISTS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONGOING
AS THE REMNANT CENTER OF PATRICIA APPROACHES BRO /BROWNSVILLE TX/.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW /VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG THE TX COAST/ CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE PER VWP DATA...AND EXPECT THIS INCREASE IN SPEED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR THE TX COAST AS THE REMNANT PATRICIA LOW
EMERGES OVER WARM GULF WATERS. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SUGGESTS A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION -- WITH SMALL CIRCULATIONS ALREADY NOTED WITHIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION
OF THE CONVECTION AND THE BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...WITH AN EYE TOWARD POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GOSS/HART.. 10/24/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...