What a difference a day makes!srainhoutx wrote:As of this afternoon, the HPC/WPC in coordination with the NHC is leaning on a broad surface low/trough developing Sunday night along the tail end of the frontal boundary.
EXTENDED FORECAST...STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND HAS HAD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OF MAINLY A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE W
GULF AND PUSHING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ECMWF THE LAST 2 RUNS
HAS NOW TAPPED THE BREAKS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALTHOUGH
IT STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME TYPE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IT
SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEXT WEEK. GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SOME W SHEAR ACROSS THE N GULF WITH THE
ECMWF STILL HAVING SOMEWHAT OF A RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PATTERNS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH SHEAR DEVELOPS OVER THE NW
GULF AND IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY BUT WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST DATA. 39
I trust the Euro when it comes to TD/TCs.
from Brownsville AFD:
TROPICAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIFTING A WEAK
CIRCULATION NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOWARD BROWNSVILLE BY
TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE AS A FEATURE.
Think they're on to something?
