TS Erika: East of the Lesser Antilles
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Katdaddy
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We now have Tropical Storm Danny in the Central Atlantic this evening which was upgraded from TD 4 and 5PM today. The current forecast moves it more W toward the NE Caribbean Sea and brings the intensify up to 100MPH.
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srainhoutx
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RECON tacking schedule for Danny:
Code: Select all
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-085
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 14.8N 53.0W AT 22/2000Z.
B. P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY EVERY
12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: NOAA'S P-3 AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND DANNY AT 21/1300Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY
$$
JWP
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015
While there has not been much overall change to Danny's curved-band
cloud pattern, there is evidence in satellite imagery of
increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday. Cloud
top temperatures, however, have warmed in recent hours. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest CI number
from TAFB.
There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification
during the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of
dry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone
to the north. Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles
in 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the
strength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will
ultimately affect Danny's intensity. The ECMWF shows upper-level
westerlies and even drier air associated with this feature holding
sway over the Caribbean region, while the GFS shows a relaxation
of the shear. The statistical guidance, strongly dependent on the
GFS forecast fields, continues to indicate a higher intensity, yet
the dynamical models suggest less overall intensification and even
weakening late in the forecast period. The GFS-based guidance seems
less likely relative to the other model solutions, especially given
the strength and persistence of the mid-oceanic trough thus far this
season. The intensity forecast is therefore reduced throughout
the forecast period but especially at later times and is close to or
just above the multi-model consensus ICON.
Recent fixes indicate that Danny's forward speed has decreased
slightly, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10. An enhanced
mid-oceanic trough, extending from the northeastern Atlantic to the
Caribbean Sea, is forecast to keep the subtropical ridge to the
north of Danny somewhat weak over the next few days. This should
result in Danny's continued movement toward the west or west-
northwest across the tropical Atlantic, albeit at a less than
climatological rate of speed. Later in the forecast period, large-
scale models are in agreement that there should be some re-
strengthening of the subtropical ridge, which would result in
Danny's moving at a slightly faster forward speed. The cyclone's
heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of
the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,
as is the case in the ECMWF solution. A stronger system, like the
one that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude. The
track forecast is adjusted southward this forecast cycle, based on
an initial re-positioning of the cyclone and with the expectation
that Danny could be somewhat weaker later in the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 11.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.4N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.9N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.4N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 13.1N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 15.6N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.6N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015
While there has not been much overall change to Danny's curved-band
cloud pattern, there is evidence in satellite imagery of
increased inner-core structural organization since yesterday. Cloud
top temperatures, however, have warmed in recent hours. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest CI number
from TAFB.
There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification
during the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of
dry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone
to the north. Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles
in 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the
strength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will
ultimately affect Danny's intensity. The ECMWF shows upper-level
westerlies and even drier air associated with this feature holding
sway over the Caribbean region, while the GFS shows a relaxation
of the shear. The statistical guidance, strongly dependent on the
GFS forecast fields, continues to indicate a higher intensity, yet
the dynamical models suggest less overall intensification and even
weakening late in the forecast period. The GFS-based guidance seems
less likely relative to the other model solutions, especially given
the strength and persistence of the mid-oceanic trough thus far this
season. The intensity forecast is therefore reduced throughout
the forecast period but especially at later times and is close to or
just above the multi-model consensus ICON.
Recent fixes indicate that Danny's forward speed has decreased
slightly, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10. An enhanced
mid-oceanic trough, extending from the northeastern Atlantic to the
Caribbean Sea, is forecast to keep the subtropical ridge to the
north of Danny somewhat weak over the next few days. This should
result in Danny's continued movement toward the west or west-
northwest across the tropical Atlantic, albeit at a less than
climatological rate of speed. Later in the forecast period, large-
scale models are in agreement that there should be some re-
strengthening of the subtropical ridge, which would result in
Danny's moving at a slightly faster forward speed. The cyclone's
heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of
the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,
as is the case in the ECMWF solution. A stronger system, like the
one that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude. The
track forecast is adjusted southward this forecast cycle, based on
an initial re-positioning of the cyclone and with the expectation
that Danny could be somewhat weaker later in the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 11.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.4N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.9N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.4N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 13.1N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 15.6N 56.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.6N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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wxman57
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I think the models are correct in dissipating Danny soon after it passes the NE Caribbean. No chance of a threat here, as a giant upper low across the Gulf a week from today would provide a wall of shear, acting as a hurricane barrier.
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Best news I have heard - GOM is closed with this storm.wxman57 wrote:I think the models are correct in dissipating Danny soon after it passes the NE Caribbean. No chance of a threat here, as a giant upper low across the Gulf a week from today would provide a wall of shear, acting as a hurricane barrier.
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Danny becomes the first Hurricane of the season...
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
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Paul Robison
Accuweather's Henry Margusity is skeptical as to whether or not Danny will stay weak once past the Caribbean. And, if he's right, Danny could be the next Ike. Watch his blog here. Note which direction he draws his lines.srainhoutx wrote:Danny becomes the first Hurricane of the season...
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015
Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.
Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.
Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... y/51905418
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY
2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 21
Location: 14.3°N 48.6°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
tiny dancer
2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 21
Location: 14.3°N 48.6°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
000
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.
No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts
tiny dancer
-
Paul Robison
wxman57 wrote:I think the models are correct in dissipating Danny soon after it passes the NE Caribbean. No chance of a threat here, as a giant upper low across the Gulf a week from today would provide a wall of shear, acting as a hurricane barrier.
Henry Margusity of Accuweather still believes high pressure over Florida and influence of Pacific typhoons will bring Danny back to life, possibly shunt it towards the Texas coast. Here's his latest video blog. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... y/51928236 GOM still option for Danny. Don't let your guard down with this one!
still a tropical storm as of 8 PM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... k#contents
hurricane local statement for Puerto Rico http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTCA82-TJSJ-English.shtml
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232351
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
800 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015
...CENTER OF DANNY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 59.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 59.3 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center will move near or over the southern
Leeward Islands late tonight or early Monday, and into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Danny
is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or Monday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area overnight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible elsewhere over the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe
northward overnight.
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... k#contents
hurricane local statement for Puerto Rico http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTCA82-TJSJ-English.shtml
000
WTNT34 KNHC 232351
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
800 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015
...CENTER OF DANNY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 59.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 59.3 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center will move near or over the southern
Leeward Islands late tonight or early Monday, and into the
northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Danny
is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or Monday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area overnight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible elsewhere over the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe
northward overnight.
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
AL, 04, 2015082406, , BEST, 0, 157N, 601W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANNY, S,
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240848
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015
...DANNY SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 60.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.
The Meteorological Service of Curacao indicates that a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Danny will move across the
southern Leeward Islands later this morning and afternoon, and
move into the northeastern Caribbean Sea by this evening.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is
expected to become a tropical depression by this evening, and
degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by NOAA aircraft data
is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere over the Leeward Islands through this morning from
Guadeloupe northward.
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240848
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015
...DANNY SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 60.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.
The Meteorological Service of Curacao indicates that a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Danny is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Danny will move across the
southern Leeward Islands later this morning and afternoon, and
move into the northeastern Caribbean Sea by this evening.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is
expected to become a tropical depression by this evening, and
degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by NOAA aircraft data
is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere over the Leeward Islands through this morning from
Guadeloupe northward.
RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico through Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#DANNY
an interesting note from Steve Gregory's blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveG ... trynum=371
By: Steve Gregory, 1:04 AM GMT on August 24, 2015
Aside from the remarkable ‘life cycle’ of this storm – from rapid intensification to a Major CAT 3 Hurricane - and back down to a weak Depression in a span of barely 72 hours – it’s noteworthy to see several of the typically more reliable hurricane models still calling for DANNY to re-intensify into a Major CAT 3 Hurricane well east of the Carolinas towards the end of the week. (The probabilities of such a development is now well under 5%.)
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... atestrun=1
an interesting note from Steve Gregory's blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveG ... trynum=371
By: Steve Gregory, 1:04 AM GMT on August 24, 2015
Aside from the remarkable ‘life cycle’ of this storm – from rapid intensification to a Major CAT 3 Hurricane - and back down to a weak Depression in a span of barely 72 hours – it’s noteworthy to see several of the typically more reliable hurricane models still calling for DANNY to re-intensify into a Major CAT 3 Hurricane well east of the Carolinas towards the end of the week. (The probabilities of such a development is now well under 5%.)
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/dat ... atestrun=1
-
Paul Robison
Maybe no NW Gulf threat, but NOLA sure seems worried about Erika. Look at the NOLA HGX disco:wxman57 wrote:And now we're watching TS Erika, east of the Caribbean. I don't see any NW Gulf threat from Erika, but it could be near south Florida in 5-6 days.
.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NORMAL SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. WITH THE
MOISTURE INCREASE WE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA. 13/MH
Why are they concerned, wxman57?
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
I don't think they're concerned about Erika HITTING New Orleans, but Erika's track near the SE U.S. may affect the weather pattern upstream (Louisiana). We've seen it many times in the past - storm passes to the east of a location and the pattern may change to the west, perhaps driving a cold front south to the Gulf Coast.Paul Robison wrote:
Maybe no NW Gulf threat, but NOLA sure seems worried about Erika. Look at the NOLA HGX disco:
.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NORMAL SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. WITH THE
MOISTURE INCREASE WE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA. 13/MH
Why are they concerned, wxman57?
Email from Jeff Lindner - Wednesday 8/26/2015 - TS Erika
At 500am Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for: the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.
Discussion:
Erika continues to move toward the west and remains poorly organized. Data for several USAF flights yesterday and this morning indicate that the tropical cyclone continues to exhibit shear from the W and NW which is allowing a large mass of dry air to its north to become ingested into the circulation. Additionally the low level surface and mid level centers are not vertically aligned with the mid level center being titled to the south. Deep convection remains mainly focused across the southern semi-circle of the system due to dry air entrainment from the north. Recently deep convection has developed closer to/if not directly over the center. Last center fix from the aircraft indicated a pressure of 1005mb, but that was with a surface wind of 145/6kts…indicating the dropsonde just missed the center and the lowest pressure.
Track:
Track guidance remains in good agreement through the next 48-72 hours with a general W to WNW track along the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. This will bring Erika through the Leeward Islands Thursday and to just north of Puerto Rico on Friday and into the SE Bahamas early Saturday. There is decent agreement through 72 hours from the major global forecast models with the exception of the GFDL hurricane forecasting models which continues to track Erika harder toward the right (east) and at a much more significant intensity. Will disregard the GFDL as an outlier for now and follow closely the multi-model consensus track of the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and CMC.
Days 4-5:
Spread and uncertainty increases at days 4-5 as Erika reaches the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge over the Atlantic and nears a break in the ridge over the SE US and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time period high latitude ridging begins to build over the NE US states closing the weakness in between the ridges off the SE US coast this weekend…ie the escape route for Erika to turn out to sea will be closing. Think the idea of a recurve east of the Bahamas is now the least likely of the track options given the deep layer ridging expected to develop over the NE US this weekend which will likely effectively block a recurve of Erika. One potential option that would continue to favor a recurve is if Erika was to intensify into a strong hurricane as suggested by the GFDL model.
Will follow the more leftward (west) track guidance in days 4-5 which brings Erika toward the western Bahamas and very close to if not into FL. Given the building 500mb heights over the top of Erika by late this weekend and early next week I suspect some additional model track adjustment westward over the next 24-48 hours. Any additional westward track adjustment will require placing the day 5 forecast point into landfall on the SE FL coast.
This is a good time to remind everyone that the day 5 forecast point has an average error of 240 miles.
Intensity:
Erika is struggling and will continue to struggle in the face of dry air intrusions and shear. While the circulation remains well defined the lack of deep and persistent convection will continue to hinder overall near term development. As with the track…the intensity forecast also has considerable spread in the longer range with the GFS showing almost no development to the GFDL showing a category 4 hurricane. Should Erika survive into the Bahamas, conditions will become increasing favorable for intensification with light upper level winds and better moisture. There is a general consensus that Erika will intensity into a strong tropical storm and possibly a category 1 hurricane as it crosses the Bahamas and nears the SE FL coast late this weekend.
Residents and interests in the Bahamas, the FL Keys, and the FL east coast should closely monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.
At 500am Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for: the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands.
Discussion:
Erika continues to move toward the west and remains poorly organized. Data for several USAF flights yesterday and this morning indicate that the tropical cyclone continues to exhibit shear from the W and NW which is allowing a large mass of dry air to its north to become ingested into the circulation. Additionally the low level surface and mid level centers are not vertically aligned with the mid level center being titled to the south. Deep convection remains mainly focused across the southern semi-circle of the system due to dry air entrainment from the north. Recently deep convection has developed closer to/if not directly over the center. Last center fix from the aircraft indicated a pressure of 1005mb, but that was with a surface wind of 145/6kts…indicating the dropsonde just missed the center and the lowest pressure.
Track:
Track guidance remains in good agreement through the next 48-72 hours with a general W to WNW track along the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. This will bring Erika through the Leeward Islands Thursday and to just north of Puerto Rico on Friday and into the SE Bahamas early Saturday. There is decent agreement through 72 hours from the major global forecast models with the exception of the GFDL hurricane forecasting models which continues to track Erika harder toward the right (east) and at a much more significant intensity. Will disregard the GFDL as an outlier for now and follow closely the multi-model consensus track of the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and CMC.
Days 4-5:
Spread and uncertainty increases at days 4-5 as Erika reaches the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge over the Atlantic and nears a break in the ridge over the SE US and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time period high latitude ridging begins to build over the NE US states closing the weakness in between the ridges off the SE US coast this weekend…ie the escape route for Erika to turn out to sea will be closing. Think the idea of a recurve east of the Bahamas is now the least likely of the track options given the deep layer ridging expected to develop over the NE US this weekend which will likely effectively block a recurve of Erika. One potential option that would continue to favor a recurve is if Erika was to intensify into a strong hurricane as suggested by the GFDL model.
Will follow the more leftward (west) track guidance in days 4-5 which brings Erika toward the western Bahamas and very close to if not into FL. Given the building 500mb heights over the top of Erika by late this weekend and early next week I suspect some additional model track adjustment westward over the next 24-48 hours. Any additional westward track adjustment will require placing the day 5 forecast point into landfall on the SE FL coast.
This is a good time to remind everyone that the day 5 forecast point has an average error of 240 miles.
Intensity:
Erika is struggling and will continue to struggle in the face of dry air intrusions and shear. While the circulation remains well defined the lack of deep and persistent convection will continue to hinder overall near term development. As with the track…the intensity forecast also has considerable spread in the longer range with the GFS showing almost no development to the GFDL showing a category 4 hurricane. Should Erika survive into the Bahamas, conditions will become increasing favorable for intensification with light upper level winds and better moisture. There is a general consensus that Erika will intensity into a strong tropical storm and possibly a category 1 hurricane as it crosses the Bahamas and nears the SE FL coast late this weekend.
Residents and interests in the Bahamas, the FL Keys, and the FL east coast should closely monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Models are trending eastward with Erika. Most have the center passing east of Florida now. That digging upper trof across Texas and the NW/Central Gulf has plunged the jet stream south into the Gulf then NE across Florida. That jet may help turn Erika northward just before the center reaches south Florida. Could keep it east of the Carolinas, too.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Morning briefing from Jeff on Erika:
Erika intensifies slightly.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for: the Leeward Islands, The US/British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the SE Bahama Islands.
Discussion:
Satellite images and aircraft data this morning indicate Erika is attempting to intensify although conditions remain generally unfavorable. A large burst of deep convection has developed overnight near and to the southeast of the fixed surface center as shown by radar data from the Leeward Islands and recon fixes. Erika remains a sheared tropical cyclone with all of the deep convection on the south and southeast side of the circulation. The system has attempted to build deep convection over the center, but 15-20kts of wind shear continue to result in the convection being pushed off the center. With that said, the surface circulation remains well intact at the moment.
Track:
Erika has been moving westward overnight and is currently located over the Leeward Islands. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning through day 3 with Erika maintaining a WNW motion along the southern side of the sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Global forecast model data is in good agreement on this track reasoning and brings Erika along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and then into the SE Bahamas on Saturday. After 72 hours Erika will reach the western edge of the sub-tropical high and begin to slow in forward speed and turn toward the right (north). Track guidance begins to diverge on how fast Erika will turn toward the right and much of this has to do with how strong Erika is and the approach of an upper level trough from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE US. Track guidance has trended eastward since yesterday, but continues to have swings between runs and models which does not result in a very high confidence track for days 4-5. Latest NHC forecast brings Erika NW and then NNW through the Bahamas and then along the FL east coast.
This is a good time to remain everyone that the average error at day 5 is upwards of 240 miles.
Intensity:
Erika will have to continue to fight off 15-30kts of winds shear for at least the next 48 hours given an upper level trough located over the Caribbean Sea west of the circulation. This trough is forecast to weaken over time allowing more favorable conditions as Erika enters the Bahamas on Saturday. The GFDL and HWRF models remain on the higher end of the guidance envelope with the latest HWRF taking Erika down to 948mb (109kts) and the GFDL 928mb and 131kts…both major hurricanes. The rest of the intensity guidance is significantly lower keeping Erika in the strong tropical storm to category 1 hurricane level. If Erika can survive the next 48 hours and find a better environment over the Bahamas gradual intensification is expected. The current forecast calls for Erika to intensify to a category 1 hurricane while passing through the Bahamas.
Residents and interest in the Bahamas, FL and the SE US coast should closely monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
Erika intensifies slightly.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for: the Leeward Islands, The US/British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the SE Bahama Islands.
Discussion:
Satellite images and aircraft data this morning indicate Erika is attempting to intensify although conditions remain generally unfavorable. A large burst of deep convection has developed overnight near and to the southeast of the fixed surface center as shown by radar data from the Leeward Islands and recon fixes. Erika remains a sheared tropical cyclone with all of the deep convection on the south and southeast side of the circulation. The system has attempted to build deep convection over the center, but 15-20kts of wind shear continue to result in the convection being pushed off the center. With that said, the surface circulation remains well intact at the moment.
Track:
Erika has been moving westward overnight and is currently located over the Leeward Islands. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning through day 3 with Erika maintaining a WNW motion along the southern side of the sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Global forecast model data is in good agreement on this track reasoning and brings Erika along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and then into the SE Bahamas on Saturday. After 72 hours Erika will reach the western edge of the sub-tropical high and begin to slow in forward speed and turn toward the right (north). Track guidance begins to diverge on how fast Erika will turn toward the right and much of this has to do with how strong Erika is and the approach of an upper level trough from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE US. Track guidance has trended eastward since yesterday, but continues to have swings between runs and models which does not result in a very high confidence track for days 4-5. Latest NHC forecast brings Erika NW and then NNW through the Bahamas and then along the FL east coast.
This is a good time to remain everyone that the average error at day 5 is upwards of 240 miles.
Intensity:
Erika will have to continue to fight off 15-30kts of winds shear for at least the next 48 hours given an upper level trough located over the Caribbean Sea west of the circulation. This trough is forecast to weaken over time allowing more favorable conditions as Erika enters the Bahamas on Saturday. The GFDL and HWRF models remain on the higher end of the guidance envelope with the latest HWRF taking Erika down to 948mb (109kts) and the GFDL 928mb and 131kts…both major hurricanes. The rest of the intensity guidance is significantly lower keeping Erika in the strong tropical storm to category 1 hurricane level. If Erika can survive the next 48 hours and find a better environment over the Bahamas gradual intensification is expected. The current forecast calls for Erika to intensify to a category 1 hurricane while passing through the Bahamas.
Residents and interest in the Bahamas, FL and the SE US coast should closely monitor the progress of Erika over the next several days.
NHC Forecast Track and Error Cone:
- Attachments
-
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
Paul Robison
Good news?
000
WTNT45 KNHC 290248
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very
helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation
associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of
Hispaniola. There is plenty of deep convection associated with the
cyclone, and gusts to tropical storm force are being reported
in Barahona, on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Given
that the circulation is interacting with land, the initial intensity
has been set at 40 kt. Erika is fighting both land and a hostile
wind shear environment, and it will be very difficult for the
cyclone to recover. Consequently, weakening in the short term is
indicated in the NHC forecast, and there is a strong likelihood
that Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during its interaction
with land. However, if it survives, there is a very small
opportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the
Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where the
environment is less hostile. It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone. (Yay!)
The initial motion is uncertain, and the best estimate is toward the
west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 kt. It seems that Erika has
changed very little in forward speed since its formation. However,
the cyclone is reaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and the steering currents are weaker. Therefore, Erika is
forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days.
Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a more northerly track is
anticipated. There is not much track guidance available tonight
since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC
forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model
fields.
The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very
heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These
rains could produce flash floods and mudslides.
We must emphasize that although this would normally be an
appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern
Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until
we see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola. There is a
significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be
required.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 18.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
000
WTNT45 KNHC 290248
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very
helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation
associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of
Hispaniola. There is plenty of deep convection associated with the
cyclone, and gusts to tropical storm force are being reported
in Barahona, on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Given
that the circulation is interacting with land, the initial intensity
has been set at 40 kt. Erika is fighting both land and a hostile
wind shear environment, and it will be very difficult for the
cyclone to recover. Consequently, weakening in the short term is
indicated in the NHC forecast, and there is a strong likelihood
that Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during its interaction
with land. However, if it survives, there is a very small
opportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the
Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where the
environment is less hostile. It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone. (Yay!)
The initial motion is uncertain, and the best estimate is toward the
west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 kt. It seems that Erika has
changed very little in forward speed since its formation. However,
the cyclone is reaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and the steering currents are weaker. Therefore, Erika is
forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days.
Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a more northerly track is
anticipated. There is not much track guidance available tonight
since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC
forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model
fields.
The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very
heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These
rains could produce flash floods and mudslides.
We must emphasize that although this would normally be an
appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern
Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until
we see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola. There is a
significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be
required.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 18.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND