It looks like 10E currently located SW of the Baja Peninsula may pose another threat to Hawaii. The Hurricane Hunters will remain at Hickam Field in Oahu waiting on Hilda to make its approach and sample, if necessary.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 06 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-072
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILDA AT 10/0600Z NEAR 16.6N 146.1W.
$$
JWP
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TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
The cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in
organization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass
of deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the
circulation. The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is
also directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass
indicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.
Satellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35
kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate
is set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the
even greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.
The initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general
forecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to
steer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend
toward the west-northwest after 36 hours. In about 72 hours, the
cyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and
encounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.
This pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed by 96 hours. The GFS-based guidance shows
a stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during
the next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a
track farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF
solution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.
Overall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model
consensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,
the official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far
west as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.
Large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be
conducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,
except for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along
Hilda's path in 2 to 3 days. When the cyclone gains latitude late
in the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing
southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough
expected to be near the longitude of Hawaii. The official intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is
higher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to
the intensity forecast late in the period.
Hurricane Hilda now in the Central Pacific is a small Hurricane with an eye approximately 7 miles across and likely Hurricane force winds only extending out about 35 miles. Hilda continues to move generally WNW toward the Big Island of Hawaii and may achieve Major Hurricane status today but should begin to weaken before its approach on Hawaii. Currently Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to fly out and sample Hilda on the 10th when it gets a bit closer to Hawaii. I know some of you have asked when I will be traveling to our 50th State. I depart the morning of the 18th for 7 nights in Oahu on Waikiki Beach. Currently it looks like tropical showers may brush the Hawaiian Islands before my arrival, but I will continue to monitor the weather for Hawaii just in case another area of tropical trouble develops behind Hilda.
HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 07 2015
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT HILDA EXHIBITED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS HAS RECENTLY EASED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB ARE 5.0/90
KT AND 5.5/102 KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
NEAR 4.5/77 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES YIELDS A 90 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/13 KT. HILDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN EVEN MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 3 AND
4 AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE. THE SLOWING IN
FORWARD MOTION AND INCREASE IN LATITUDE ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WILL ALSO BE
DUE TO THE CYCLONE/S INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER LOW
ALOFT NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A RELATIVELY WEAK HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN DEFERENCE TO THE
CHANGES IN THE GFEX GUIDANCE.
A WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE...AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS HILDA WILL ENCOUNTER STEADILY
INCREASING SHEAR AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE...AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING NORTH OF HAWAII. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 20 KT ON MONDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BARELY HANGING ON AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW
BY DAY 5. THEREFORE A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE IN 48
HOURS...WITH RAPID WEAKENING STILL EXPECTED IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT PRESENTS A SLOWER
WEAKENING TREND ON DAY 5 THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE.
Here are some exclusive images my good friend who is flying the Hurricane Hunters out of Hickam Field in Oahu took lest evening on the first reconnaissance mission into Hurricane Hilda.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx wrote:
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015
I would assume that with your upcoming trip there you're keeping an extra-close watch on this one, huh?
Timing wise for my trip...I depart next Tuesday...we had thought 93E might be a 'sleeper system' that could pose a problem while I am there. Time will tell, but there is little if any model support suggesting it can overcome all the dry air in its path Westward toward Hawaii. Hilda should be gone before I arrive.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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