August 2015 - Isolated Rain Chances to End August

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Paul Robison

Off topic: The GFDL forecast is model hinting at hurricane Danny missing the Greater Antilles and strengthening in warm waters of the Bahamas, around Turks and Caicos. If this verifies will SE Texas get hit by Danny?
mckinne63
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Paul Robison wrote:Off topic: The GFDL forecast is model hinting at hurricane Danny missing the Greater Antilles and strengthening in warm waters of the Bahamas, around Turks and Caicos. If this verifies will SE Texas get hit by Danny?
Just curious Paul, why don't you ask this question on the Hurricane Danny thread in the Hurricane Central forum?

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2044
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Lots of thunder and lightening in Stafford. Had some brief rain. Looking at radar there is a small cell coming this way. Hubby is at the golf course down the road. I'm sure they have been called into the clubhouse. Looking at the front of the house it is really dark, looking out the back, not so much.
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We had some very heavy rain, strong gusting winds, and lots of CGs earlier this morning. Picked up .55" in 20 minutes.
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Paul Robison

What are the chances of strong/severe T-storms with Monday/Tuesday's much-advertised cold front ?
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davidiowx
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I realize I am one of the lucky few getting some heavy thunderstorms right now but boy is it coming down like cats and dogs! Power has glitched twice already. Tons of lightning and thunder with those huge tropical rain drops. I love this weather! :D
Paul Robison

davidiowx wrote:I realize I am one of the lucky few getting some heavy thunderstorms right now but boy is it coming down like cats and dogs! Power has glitched twice already. Tons of lightning and thunder with those huge tropical rain drops. I love this weather! :D
To paraphrase McDonald's I'm not lovin' it. Your post, davidowx, makes we wonder what thunderstorm activity will be like with Tuesday's cold front. Let's face it, if all that thunder, lighting and rain you've mentioned is coming from one thunderstorm, what are with in for with an organized line along a cold front?
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Paul, it means your screwed. Get over it and have a nice night.
Paul Robison

redneckweather wrote:Paul, it means your screwed. Get over it and have a nice night.
My apologies.
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Email from Jeff Lindner - Monday - August 24th

Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary will approach the area from the NNE this afternoon and combine with high temperatures in the upper 90’s to low 100’s to produce a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong surface heating this morning will raise temperatures into the mid to upper 90’s by early afternoon allowing building energy at the surface. Expect convection to begin to develop in the corridor from Huntsville to Lufkin between 100-300pm and build SW with time into the super-heated air mass over SE TX.

Forecast soundings show a dry sub cloud layer which will lead to gusty winds in and near the thunderstorms and some of the storms may produce winds to near severe levels.

Frontal boundary and instability over the area may keep storms going into the evening hours with 07Z run of the HRRR meso model showing a weakly defined thunderstorm complex moving out of SW Louisiana into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. This potentially is some interaction of southward outflow boundaries with the northward moving seabreeze.

Tuesday will feature another potentially active day with the front overhead likely allowing for additional showers and thunderstorms. Again a few of the storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds.

Front should slip off the coast with a significantly drier air mass spreading across SE TX on Wednesday. Low temperatures may fall into the mid and upper 60’s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Jeff Lindner
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We are a little dry at my house. With only .75 inches in July and so far only 1.85 inches in August, we could use a nice summer shower. We will see...
Paul Robison

ticka1 wrote:Email from Jeff Lindner - Monday - August 24th

Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

A weak frontal boundary will approach the area from the NNE this afternoon and combine with high temperatures in the upper 90’s to low 100’s to produce a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong surface heating this morning will raise temperatures into the mid to upper 90’s by early afternoon allowing building energy at the surface. Expect convection to begin to develop in the corridor from Huntsville to Lufkin between 100-300pm and build SW with time into the super-heated air mass over SE TX.

Forecast soundings show a dry sub cloud layer which will lead to gusty winds in and near the thunderstorms and some of the storms may produce winds to near severe levels.

Frontal boundary and instability over the area may keep storms going into the evening hours with 07Z run of the HRRR meso model showing a weakly defined thunderstorm complex moving out of SW Louisiana into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. This potentially is some interaction of southward outflow boundaries with the northward moving seabreeze.

Tuesday will feature another potentially active day with the front overhead likely allowing for additional showers and thunderstorms. Again a few of the storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds.

Front should slip off the coast with a significantly drier air mass spreading across SE TX on Wednesday. Low temperatures may fall into the mid and upper 60’s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Jeff Lindner

Well, Redneckweather did tell me this front mean's I'm/we're screwed as far as severe wx is concerned. Guess he was right, huh?
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The developing NW flow aloft will drift a weak front/outflow boundary in SE TX and near coast this afternoon into the late evening resulting in a 40% chance of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong and approach severe limits. Much drier air filters into SE TX Wednesday evening giving us a little cooler less humid weather through the rest of the week. Some areas N of Houston may fall into the upper 60s for lows.
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Looks like most of this activity off to our northeast is sliding off to the southeast. I wouldn't be surprised if most of this misses Southeast, TX.
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Tuesday morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

Upper level short wave over eastern OK this morning is dropping southward on the eastern flank of the upper level ridge over the SW US. Strong thunderstorms have already developed over NE TX this morning is response to the energy aloft and a southward moving cool front.

Expect this complex of storms to build S to SSW today and enter into SE TX early this afternoon. Local air mass will become very warm and unstable by late morning and this will help fuel storms. Forecast models soundings show the “inverted V” profile which usually points toward strong gusty winds due to evaporative effects of the rain in a high heated and somewhat drier low level air mass.

Short term guidance is fairly aggressive with storms today into this evening, but have not performed well of late especially yesterday.

Drier air mass looks to move into the region on Wednesday with lows into the 60’s Thursday and Friday.

Jeff Lindner
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Some strong thunderstorms heading S to the Houston area:

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLER...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS...SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES...NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1158 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONTGOMERY TO NEAR
NORTH CLEVELAND...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...CLEVELAND...NAVASOTA...WILLIS...PINEHURST...THE WOODLANDS...
OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHEPHERD...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...
SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...MAGNOLIA...WOODBRANCH...
CUT AND SHOOT...NEW WAVERLY...COLDSPRING...MONTGOMERY AND PLUM GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1210 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE CONROE DAM...OR NEAR
CONROE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT AROUND 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...WILLIS...PINEHURST...THE WOODLANDS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHENANDOAH...MONTGOMERY AND LAKE CONROE DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR
YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHO WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1226 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SNOOK...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. MARBLE
SIZE HAIL AND SOME ROOF DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BRYAN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...SOUTHWESTERN BRYAN...SNOOK...KYLE FIELD AND
WELLBORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1248 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
DAYTON TO NEAR SPLASHTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...BAYTOWN...DEER PARK...HUMBLE...GALENA
PARK...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...DAYTON...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...BEACH CITY...
SPRING VALLEY...BARRETT...GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...SPRING
BRANCH WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD AND GREATER
EASTWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
147 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 146 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER PASADENA AND SOUTH HOUSTON...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA
PORTE...DEER PARK...ALVIN...DICKINSON...SOUTH HOUSTON...LA
MARQUE...SANTA FE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...MANVEL...KEMAH...CLEAR
LAKE...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...GREATER HOBBY AREA AND NASSAU BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
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