JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

HARRIS TX-
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 910 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. ONE TO ALMOST TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS
TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHES LAND IS EXPECTED... AND WILL CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHERN PEARLAND...SOUTH HOUSTON...
BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA PARK...JACINTO
CITY...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...
NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...GREATER HOBBY AREA...NEAR
NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA AND UNIVERSITY
PLACE.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Enhancement of feeder bands likely over next few hours in green shaded area below.

This will increase the flooding rainfall potential as coastal convergence increases to the ENE/NE of the center landfall of Bill over Matagorda Bay.

Hourly rainfall rates will be increasing.

[poobear55]

I am curious about the blowup south of the storm. it looks pretty impressive. Could someone comment on what is going on down there, if anything.

[Cromagnum]

I'm curious about ghat southern flare up too. Is he reforming south?

[srainhoutx]

Bill looks stationary since the last center fix.

[tireman4]

I think Steve addressed "wobbling" earlier. I think this is or could be a wobble, not a reformation. I will let the experts confirm or discount this.

[srainhoutx]

HGX reports 45 MPH winds @ Port O'Conner

[srainhoutx]

HGX Wind Gust Reports:

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015


...WIND REPORTS PAST 24 HOURS ...

LOCATION                     SPEED     TIME/DATE       LAT/LON              

...BRAZORIA COUNTY...
CLOVER FIELD AIRPORT         44 MPH    1229 AM 06/16   29.52N/95.24W        
1 NE QUINTANA                38 MPH    0606 AM 06/16   28.94N/95.30W        
9 SW JONES CREEK             37 MPH    0829 AM 06/16   28.86N/95.57W        
BRAZORIA COUNTY AIRPORT      32 MPH    0759 AM 06/16   29.11N/95.46W        
6 SSE DANBURY                31 MPH    0528 PM 06/15   29.15N/95.30W        

...BRAZOS COUNTY...
EASTERWOOD FIELD AIRPORT     31 MPH    0501 PM 06/15   30.59N/96.36W        

...BURLESON COUNTY...
CALDWELL                     29 MPH    0530 PM 06/15   30.52N/96.70W        

...CHAMBERS COUNTY...
9 SSW STOWELL                32 MPH    0812 AM 06/16   29.67N/94.44W        

...FORT BEND COUNTY...
1 SE MISSOURI CITY           39 MPH    0801 PM 06/15   29.56N/95.52W        
SUGAR LAND MUN AP            35 MPH    1056 AM 06/15   29.62N/95.66W        
2 SW ROSENBERG               33 MPH    0218 PM 06/15   29.52N/95.81W        
1 WNW ARCOLA                 31 MPH    0135 PM 06/15   29.51N/95.48W        

...GALVESTON COUNTY...
SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON    43 MPH    0805 AM 06/16   29.27N/94.86W        
19 E SAN LEON                43 MPH    0656 AM 06/16   29.47N/94.62W        
2 SW KEMAH                   40 MPH    0714 AM 06/16   29.51N/95.05W        
2 E LA MARQUE                39 MPH    0819 AM 06/16   29.37N/94.95W        
4 ENE TEXAS CITY             38 MPH    0710 AM 06/16   29.42N/94.89W        
18 E SAN LEON                32 MPH    0728 AM 06/16   29.45N/94.64W        
2 ENE HILLCREST              30 MPH    0400 PM 06/15   29.41N/95.18W        
2 NW SANTA FE                29 MPH    0840 AM 06/16   29.41N/95.12W        

...GRIMES COUNTY...
8 SE NAVASOTA                36 MPH    0417 PM 06/15   30.29N/96.00W        

...HARRIS COUNTY...
WEBSTER                      44 MPH    0847 AM 06/16   29.54N/95.10W        
1 ENE CLEAR LAKE SHORES      42 MPH    0830 AM 06/16   29.56N/95.02W        
DAVID WAYNE HOOKS MEMORIAL A 31 MPH    0310 PM 06/15   30.06N/95.55W        
2 E WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE    31 MPH    0115 AM 06/16   29.72N/95.40W        
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL     30 MPH    0245 PM 06/15   29.98N/95.34W        
4 SSW PASADENA               29 MPH    1250 PM 06/15   29.60N/95.17W        

...JACKSON COUNTY...
6 WSW LA WARD                36 MPH    0903 AM 06/16   28.79N/96.55W        
8 SSE LA WARD                35 MPH    0903 AM 06/16   28.73N/96.42W        
5 S LA WARD                  34 MPH    0923 AM 06/16   28.77N/96.46W        
9 W LA WARD                  32 MPH    0901 AM 06/16   28.82N/96.62W        

...MARINE REPORTING STATIONS...
BRAZOS 451                   66 MPH    0910 AM 06/16   28.49N/95.72W        
32 SE QUINTANA               62 MPH    0735 AM 06/16   28.58N/94.98W        
17 ESE PALACIOS              53 MPH    0806 AM 06/16   28.59N/95.98W        
13 E BAYOU VISTA             51 MPH    0718 AM 06/16   29.36N/94.72W        
23 E GALVESTON               47 MPH    0515 PM 06/15   29.18N/94.52W        
71 S QUINTANA                43 MPH    0250 AM 06/16   27.90N/95.40W        
1 E QUINTANA                 42 MPH    0759 AM 06/16   28.93N/95.29W        
8 ESE MAGNOLIA BEACH         41 MPH    0800 AM 06/16   28.45N/96.39W        
3 NNE SAN LEON               39 MPH    1026 PM 06/15   29.54N/94.91W        
1 ESE SAN LEON               38 MPH    0830 AM 06/16   29.48N/94.92W        
44 ESE GALVESTON             37 MPH    1100 AM 06/15   29.00N/94.20W        
14 SSE JAMAICA BEACH         36 MPH    0700 AM 06/16   29.00N/94.90W        
30 E GALVESTON               34 MPH    0650 AM 06/16   29.20N/94.40W        
1 ENE MORGAN''S POINT        33 MPH    0512 PM 06/15   29.68N/94.99W        

...MATAGORDA COUNTY...
PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT   44 MPH    0857 AM 06/16   28.73N/96.25W        
BAY CITY                     29 MPH    0855 AM 06/16   28.97N/95.86W        

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
5 W PANORAMA VILLAGE         34 MPH    0335 PM 06/15   30.37N/95.59W        
MONTGOMERY COUNTY AIRPORT    33 MPH    0258 PM 06/15   30.35N/95.41W        

...SAN JACINTO COUNTY...
4 N COLDSPRING               38 MPH    0253 PM 06/15   30.66N/95.12W        

...WALKER COUNTY...
2 WNW HUNTSVILLE             29 MPH    0406 PM 06/15   30.74N/95.59W        

...WALLER COUNTY...
4 ENE BROOKSHIRE             31 MPH    0255 PM 06/15   29.81N/95.90W        

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

$$

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 14:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 14:22:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°05'N 96°25'W (28.0833N 96.4167W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,404m (4,606ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S/SSW (191°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 271° at 25kts (From the W at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NE (51°) from the flight level center at 14:32:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 6kts (From the ESE at 7mph)

[unome]

Bill just stuck his proboscis into that blob in the sw gulf & sucked it's moisture in, right out of a Stephen King novella

[srainhoutx]

[tireman4]

Update from Mr. And Mrs. Wxman 57:

Just boarded my plane. Only a 22 hour delay. Hope to shoot the gap into IAH

[ticka1]

jeff was on kprc the other station in houston...sorry khou flipping channels..to see

[ticka1]

Bill just stuck his proboscis into that blob in the sw gulf & sucked it's moisture in, right out of a Stephen King novella

huh??? lol

[poobear55]

The blob in the SW Gulf is more impressive than Bill!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Tropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of
Port O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although
the satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler
radar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of
50 kt. After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as
the cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS
suggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the
post-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move
around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high
located over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By
48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the
mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the
northeastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are
in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Although the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the
center, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring
well away from the center. The main hazard from Bill is expected to
be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and
eastern Oklahoma over the next day or two. Please see products from
your local National Weather Service office for more information on
the flood threat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.2N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 31.6N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 33.4N 97.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 34.9N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/1200Z 36.8N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 20/1200Z 39.3N 87.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

[Baseballdude2915]

The blob in the SW Gulf is more impressive than Bill!

It's lighting up the water vapor loop too.
Have to see if the convection continues to build on the south side of Bill.
That would not be good as all that convection will wrap up on "the dirty side" (us) as it moves inland.

[jabcwb2]

Am I seeing a center of circulation in the purple area?????