JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Our pleasant weather continues although it may be a bit warm for some throughout the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 90's. The upper ridge will be parked o over Texas into Monday, then changes in the pattern begin to occur.

The upper ridge looks to move SW and flatten out as Blanca moves N into the Baja Peninsula and weakens. Deep tropical moisture will be pooling across the NW Caribbean Sea associated with the monsoonal trough and begins lifting N into the Western Gulf by mid week increasing PW's to a very tropical 2+ inches increasing our rain chances into next weekend. The fly in the ointment continues to be a possible shear axis along the Western Gulf that extends from the Bay of Campeche to NE Mexico, Coastal Texas and Louisiana. This shear axis or area of lower pressures suggests tropical moisture will continue surging N into next weekend and early the following work week. There are indications that a stalled frontal boundary may be draped across Louisiana as a rather strong Eastern trough develops increasing odds for focusing daily showers and thunderstorms. Right now it appears Coastal Texas and Louisiana will see the greatest threat for heavy rainfall, but that will need to be monitored. The GFS has suggested a weak meandering surface low could develop with the other reliable computer guidance waffling day to day with that scenario. At this time it does not appear that conditions are that favorable for any tropical development, but we will continue to monitor just in case any tropical trouble spins up in our backyard.



NWS Lake Charles:


SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY DUE TO A LACK OF
CLOUD COVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, AND A LACK OF A
MARINE INFLUENCE TODAY. THIS LACK OF A RETURN FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN COMBINE TO PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY OVER LOWER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN FROM A CONTINUING FETCH
IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WEAKENS WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO CLIMO LEVELS.

AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT AND PRODUCING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SWEENEY



NWS Houston/Galveston:

MON THROUGH WED MODELS SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE COMING INTO THE
REGION SO MAY SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE
DOES BREAK DOWN TUE/WED NEXT WEEK AS WEEK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
CLOSE OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE WEAK
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ALONG THE N GULF COAST. WHILE THIS HAPPENS GFS
SHOWS PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES FOR
THE WED THROUGH FRI TIME FRAME. TRAJECTORIES FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO REACH THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT THIS
DOES IS OPEN THE POSSIBILITIES OF MORE SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. POPS INCREASE FROM 20/30
PERCENT MON/TUE TO BASICALLY 40 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IF TRENDS WITH MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND CONTINUE THEN SUSPECT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO
BE INCREASED GIVEN HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES AND A WEAKNESS IN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z computer guidance continues to advertise increasing rain chances beginning Tuesday and further increasing into next weekend. Long fetch deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean Sea surges N into the Western Gulf as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Eastern Gulf and lowering pressures associated with a shear axis, long wave trough advancing from the West and perhaps a weak surface low develops in the Bay of Campeche and slowly meanders N into a week from Monday. At this time no tropical development is expected, but PW's are suggested by the European and GFS computer guidance to increase to a very tropical 2.3 inches which raises an eyebrow and supports heavy rainfall chances particularly across the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. We will continue to monitor an area of distributed weather in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and possibly into the Bay of Campeche throughout the coming work week.

[Paul Robison]

About the Western Gulf late next week? Well, who knows. It will likely depend on the fate of a future system behind Blanca in the Pacific. GFS shunts the energy to the Gulf by day 7. On the other hand, the Euro withholds the energy as it develops a tropical storm on the Pacific side.

The Canadian model is silly with this thing. That one's got the system jumping back and forth across Mexico from 140 hrs forward. The GFS and Euro were in good agreement 10 days out 48 hours earlier. Today, they disagree with each other. I'm not taking the idea of a Gulf storm seriously at this point, having looked at the model runs thus far. I would also wonder about the effect on rainfall rates and moisture if the Euro's scenario verifies. (Think I'll trust the Euro.)

[Texaspirate11]

About the Western Gulf late next week? Well, who knows. It will likely depend on the fate of a future system behind Blanca in the Pacific. GFS shunts the energy to the Gulf by day 7. On the other hand, the Euro withholds the energy as it develops a tropical storm on the Pacific side.

The Canadian model is silly with this thing. That one's got the system jumping back and forth across Mexico from 140 hrs forward. The GFS and Euro were in good agreement 10 days out 48 hours earlier. Today, they disagree with each other. I'm not taking the idea of a Gulf storm seriously at this point, having looked at the model runs thus far. I would also wonder about the effect on rainfall rates and moisture if the Euro's scenario verifies. (Think I'll trust the Euro.)

About the Western Gulf late next week? Well, who knows. It will likely depend on the fate of a future system behind Blanca in the Pacific. GFS shunts the energy to the Gulf by day 7. On the other hand, the Euro withholds the energy as it develops a tropical storm on the Pacific side.

The Canadian model is silly with this thing. That one's got the system jumping back and forth across Mexico from 140 hrs forward. The GFS and Euro were in good agreement 10 days out 48 hours earlier. Today, they disagree with each other. I'm not taking the idea of a Gulf storm seriously at this point, having looked at the model runs thus far. I would also wonder about the effect on rainfall rates and moisture if the Euro's scenario verifies. (Think I'll trust the Euro.)

hi Paul! Looks like poor Louisiana would take the weather hit with the rain if this verifies.
But, like you pointed out beautifully; the models today are disagreeing. So, what else is new? HAHA
Seriously, until everything gels (Like Bianca) it's spin the weather wheel, for right now at least.
Remember, its the season for all eyes on The GOM...glad you're on top of it. I suppose the next couple of days,
the models will learn to "get along"...at least for our sanity, right?!

[srainhoutx]

The overnight global European and GFS continue to advertise a developing trough across the Southern Rockies as well as the potential for a mid/upper low developing across Eastern Texas into Louisiana. Pressures generally continue to lower across the Western Gulf and long fetch deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean pushes N into the Western Gulf increasing showers and thunderstorm chances mid weekend into next weekend. There is little agreement day to day regarding any potential surface low pressure development in the Western Gulf, but odds have increased this morning for potential tropical development in the next 48 hours for an area of disturbed weather S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific. It does appear rain chances will increase throughout the work week and possibly significantly into next weekend regardless of any tropical trouble that may or may not develop in our backyard.

[Paul Robison]

The overnight global European and GFS continue to advertise a developing trough across the Southern Rockies as well as the potential for a mid/upper low developing across Eastern Texas into Louisiana. Pressures generally continue to lower across the Western Gulf and long fetch deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean pushes N into the Western Gulf increasing showers and thunderstorm chances mid weekend into next weekend. There is little agreement day to day regarding any potential surface low pressure development in the Western Gulf, but odds have increased this morning for potential tropical development in the next 48 hours for an area of disturbed weather S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific. It does appear rain chances will increase throughout the work week and possibly significantly into next weekend regardless of any tropical trouble that may or may not develop in our backyard.

06072015 00Z Euro 120 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_6.png

06072015 00Z GFS 120 gfs_z500a_sd_namer_21.png

06072015 00Z GFS Individual Members 168 f168.gif

06072015 TRMM 28.gif

06072015 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

You refer to our rain chances, right?

[Texaspirate11]

The overnight global European and GFS continue to advertise a developing trough across the Southern Rockies as well as the potential for a mid/upper low developing across Eastern Texas into Louisiana. Pressures generally continue to lower across the Western Gulf and long fetch deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean pushes N into the Western Gulf increasing showers and thunderstorm chances mid weekend into next weekend. There is little agreement day to day regarding any potential surface low pressure development in the Western Gulf, but odds have increased this morning for potential tropical development in the next 48 hours for an area of disturbed weather S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific. It does appear rain chances will increase throughout the work week and possibly significantly into next weekend regardless of any tropical trouble that may or may not develop in our backyard.

06072015 00Z Euro 120 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_6.png

06072015 00Z GFS 120 gfs_z500a_sd_namer_21.png

06072015 00Z GFS Individual Members 168 f168.gif

06072015 TRMM 28.gif

06072015 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

You refer to our rain chances, right?

Yes, Paul, he is. We will all be on the weather watch this week to see what the weekend may bring.

[srainhoutx]

Our benign weather pattern that we have experienced the last 9 or so days that has allowed our rivers and streams to recede as well as allowed us to warm up to normal temperatures will begin to slowly transition to a wetter pattern by the weekend. The satellite derived data suggested PW's of 2.2 to 2.4 inches is pooling across the Western Caribbean. Meanwhile the upper ridge that has brought our dry weather is slowly moving West into Mexico. Across the Central United States, a boundary stretches from the Central Rockies on East with another upper ridge associated with the Bermuda high is ridging into the Northern Gulf. Blanca continues to weaken an will dissipate bring showers and storms into Arizona and New Mexico.

Later this week as the upper ridge to the West begins to build, a trough of low pressure is expected to develop across the Western and NW Gulf of Mexico as that Western Caribbean moisture begins to surge North into the Western Gulf. That process should be slow to occur as an area of disturbed South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec lifts N to NW and begins to slowly organize into a potential tropical cyclone by the end of the week, The National Hurricane Center is giving the this Eastern Pacific disturbance a High chance (80%) of developing into a tropical cyclone by the end of the work week. This feature will in some part play a roll in our sensible weather along the NW Gulf Coast into Louisiana next weekend. What is expected to happen is rain chances will slowly increase throughout the work week as the Western Caribbean moisture surges N into the Western Gulf. By the end of the week, PW's are expected to increase to 2+ inches particularly along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. PW's could increase further as the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico trough of low pressure organizes. The is a slight chance that a weak surface low pressure area could form in the Bay of Campeche and meander later this week, but that remains to be seen. Should a broad weak area of low pressure develop, it could further enhance our rain chances and possibly bring rounds of very heavy tropical rainfall along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. The computer models are struggling with the various features, so expect a lot of day to day changes as the work week unfolds.

The fly in the ointment will be a stalling boundary associated with a deepening upper trough across the Southern Rockies into Northern Mexico next weekend which further complicates an already complex and complicated forecast.

INVEST 94E S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Predication Center afternoon updated surface charts for Day 3 through 7 suggest a trough across the Western Gulf and possibly an area of low pressure meandering in the Bay of Campeche.

[TxLady]

Thanks for all the updates! I have friends and family that are still unable to go home because of the Trinity River being so high. So, all of the information is greatly appreciated!

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (Expect Changes daily as the guidance comes into better agreement this week).

The attachment 06082015 2030Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif is no longer available

The Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs are suggesting some interesting analog years and the temperature and precipitation Outlooks continue to advertise near to above normal conditions.

[Paul Robison]

The Weather Predication Center afternoon updated surface charts for Day 3 through 7 suggest a trough across the Western Gulf and possibly an area of low pressure meandering in the Bay of Campeche.

Uh, what?

(latest WPC surface chart. Doesn't look like the same thing.)

[djjordan]

Air you can wear this morning. Summertime in SE Texas .... gotta love it.

[srainhoutx]

The morning water vapor imagery suggests that a trough is sagging S across the Northern Gulf Coast. This trough is expected to slowly move Westward throughout the week into the Western Gulf as the upper ridge shifts SW into Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to increase across the Western Caribbean Sea as the monsoonal trough continues to slowly lift N. A very broad area of lower pressures encompass the NW Caribbean Sea across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with a monsoonal gyre. The overnight guidance continues to advertise this very deep tropical moisture will surge N into the Western Gulf along a shear axis between a building upper ridge to our East and a trough of of low pressure to our West by this weekend. This pressure differential between the features to our East and West should allow for tropical showers and storms to increase along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana this weekend. The morning Weather Prediction Center surface charts suggest a trough just offshore of the Texas Coast extending into Coastal Louisiana. This synoptic pattern remains rather complicated and expect the various computer schemes to struggle resolving the various features as well as any meso features that cannot be determined more than 6 to 12 hours in advance.

Isolated showers and storms should begin to increase the rest of the work week and increase further this weekend in areal coverage as PW's rise above the 2.2+ inch mark suggesting the possibility of very heavy rainfall rates where the tropical like thunderstorms develop. It is not out of the question that some areas where thunderstorms do occur could see 2 to possibly 4 inch rainfall per hour rates raising the potential for very heavy rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

Total precipitation via the 12Z GFS through Monday morning suggests some coastal locations along the Middle/Upper Texas and Louisiana Coastal Counties may approach 6 to 8 inches of rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Predication Center afternoon update regarding the expected Surface Charts as well as the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 7 days.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Brooks Garner:

I would be interested in what you can tell me what you mentioned on Facebook:

A small but strong thunderstorm is hitting the west side of the bay. Another may be forming near downtown

Has it caused any problems? Anyone hurt? What was the wind strength? How many w/out power?

[Katdaddy]

An isolated heavy tropical downpour Paul. Nothing major. Picked up .81" of rain in 15 minutes.

[Paul Robison]

An isolated heavy tropical downpour Paul. Nothing major. Picked up .81" of rain in 15 minutes.

Thanks, katdaddy. I only asked because he described it as "small but strong." My AM radio picked up a good deal of static, which led me to believe that there was some serious lightning production going on.

Anyway, keep up the good work.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise increasing showers and thunderstorms the remainder of the work week with higher chances Saturday and Sunday.

The upper ridge that has brought our extended dry weather continues to shift West as a trough across the Eastern United States digs S across Louisiana into the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance continues to suggest a shear axis developing across the Western Gulf as increasing deep tropical moisture streams N from the Western Caribbean towards Coastal Texas and Louisiana on Friday into the weekend. PW's surge above 2 inches suggesting the potential for heavy tropical rainfall mainly along and S of the 59 Corridor and along the I-10 Corridor in far SE Texas and Louisiana during the weekend. Areas further N should see lesser amounts of rainfall, but will not be totally dry. There is some potential for thunderstorms developing across the Southern Plains and dropping S in the mean upper flow, but the primary concern will be from showers and storms moving N toward the Coast from the surging tropical moisture. The computer models diverge early next week with the GFS suggesting an unsettled pattern continuing Monday through Wednesday while the European suggests high pressure ridges West from the Eastern Gulf and begins the drying process across the Region. Rainfall totals expected during this 'wetter' pattern is expected to range from 1/2 inch with higher totals of 2 to 4 inches with some isolated totals approaching 5 to 7 inches where heavier thunderstorms develop and move slowly. The rainfall threat is expected to slowly decrease early next week with more isolated afternoon showers and a few storms developing. It appears a dryer pattern takes hold later next week as a SE Ridge becomes established and dryer air arrives from the Eastern Pacific as an upper ridge builds across Mexico.