JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Am I seeing a center of circulation in the purple area?????

Very near the Coast at Matagorda Bay is the center.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

[Texashawk]

Pressure keeps dropping. Good thing this sucker is making landfall soon!

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully RECON can catch one more center pass before Bill moves inland.

[davidiowx]

Looking more like we will get the heavy rains they were forecasting

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... =M&ps=area

Click loop all

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Bill impacting the middle and upper TX coasts with strong winds, high tides, and heavy rainfall. Recon has just reported the pressure is now down to 997mb as the system continues to intensify.

Center of Bill has drifted toward the west and remains offshore per both Houston and Corpus radars currently 10-20 miles south of Seadrift. Tropical storm force winds are in progress over much of Matagorda Bay extending up the coast to Galveston Bay (mainly in gusts in this area).

Port O Connor just reported 50mph at 1000am

Oil Platform off Matagorda Island has gusted to 66mph.

Core of heavy rainfall extends from eastern Matagorda County into central Jackson County associated with the northern semi-circle of the tight circulation field. Feeder bands continue to lift northward east of this across the rest of SE TX. Short range guidance continues to progress the system inland near/just west of Matagorda Bay with bands of heavy rainfall developing and spreading inland over SE TX. PWS have surged to an extremely high 2.5-2.6 inches across the region and rainfall amounts out over the Gulf waters have exceeded 5-6 inches. Expect rainfall totals to gradually pile up across SE TX today.

Tides are elevated and will remain elevated today with strong onshore winds. Tides continue to run over 4.0 ft in Galveston Bay, 3.0-3.5ft along the west side of Matagorda Bay, and 3.0-3.5 ft along the Gulf beaches. Coastal flooding has been reported and is continuing in some locations.

[ticka1]

is it a wobble or truebturn south away from houston??

be this affects the moisture and pull away from houston area?

[seanatsk]

Looking more like we will get the heavy rains they were forecasting

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... =M&ps=area

Click loop all

That's not very comforting! We closed work today and it looks like we should've just closed early and think about a late start tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

is it a wobble or truebturn south away from houston??

be this affects the moisture and pull away from houston area?

What to you think, ticka1?

[srainhoutx]

[nuby3]

perfect timing for a rainmaker really, coming ashore when it is. sun up for several hours and things heating up upon landfall, and then when it is just inland enough core rainfall will take place

[Katdaddy]

Looks like some training trying to set up in Galveston County to the E of I-45. Lots of rain developing in the GOM offshore of Galveston County headed NW.

[ticka1]

seriously thinking about heading into work -rainbands are very sporadic

[nuby3]

I think Bill shows more northward progress again. I really think we're gonna see a good turn to the north at some point and we are not out of any sort of woods at all around here. to me it looks like maybe a banding feature will develop roughly along 45 from Galveston to Houston

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 16:06Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 15:48:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°08'N 96°35'W (28.1333N 96.5833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 210° at 28kts (From the SSW at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) which was observed 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) from the flight level center at 14:32:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (215°) from the flight level center at 16:00:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 145° at 4kts (From the SE at 5mph)

[jasons2k]

As the storm moves to the NW/NNW, all that moisture over the Gulf is going to move-in right over us. I expect the threat of training bands over us to increase as we move through the afternoon and into tonight.

Part of the reason why the bands are sporadic is because the storm is still tightening-up, and it's common for there to be gaps. After landfall and the storm unwinds a little bit, expect the rain band shield to expand, with us sitting right in the inflow channel.

This is only the beginning of a long 24-36 hours ahead.

[srainhoutx]

As the storm moves to the NW/NNW, all that moisture over the Gulf is going to move-in right over us. I expect the threat of training bands over us to increase as we move through the afternoon and into tonight.

Part of the reason why the bands are sporadic is because the storm is still tightening-up, and it's common for there to be gaps. After landfall and the the storm unwinds a little bit, expect the rain band shield to expand, with us sitting right in the inflow channel.

This is only the beginning of a long 24-36 hours ahead.

Great post Jason. Just heard Brooks on air mentioning that he and Dr. Neil where talking off camera about this very thing. The big concern is the eastern feeder band is moving N towards the Galveston/Houston area and all that long fetch deep tropical moisture will continue to stream inland a develop thunderstorms dropping copious amounts of rainfall. This event is far from over folks. In fact, it is just beginning.

TROPICAL STORM BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

The center of Bill remains just offshore of Matagorda Island. During
the past hour, a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 51
mph (81 km/h) was reported at Palacios, Texas, and a gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h) was reported at Rockport, Texas. At 1030 AM CDT, the water
level at Port Lavaca, Texas, was 2.6 feet above normal.

SUMMARY OF 1100 CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 96.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[MRG93415]

Just got this email:

Tropical Storm Bill remains about 20 miles south-southwest of Port O'Connor. The storm stalled just offshore which has delayed sending the bulk of the heavy rains onshore.
Bill's winds remain at 60 mph, and those tropical storm winds extend out 150 miles from the center.
Bill's rains extend 400 miles south into the Gulf. All that moisture will come inland later today, tonight, and tomorrow after Bill makes landfall. Our biggest threat of inland flooding may actually come tonight and Wednesday. Southeast Texas remains under a Flash Flood Watch until 6pm Wednesday.