JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[singlemom]

I am still at Disney World on eternal hold with United Airlines. Thank heavens for the forum! I've been trying to read what has happened overnight (did the mayor say it won't be a problem? Downtown will be fine?). UA does have the *no change charge* on their site today.

My question is when to schedule a return flight? Later today or tomorrow morning? We're scheduled o fly arrive around 4:15-4:30 today, What would you guys do? Thanks in advance (and for the world's best forum)

[srainhoutx]

[ticka1]

this has been the weirdest storm....hope this will be our only tropical threat this year!

[srainhoutx]

Radar suggests half an eyewall has developed. Looking more likely that Matagorda County may be the landfall point. Several more hours over water and we may have seen a Hurricane out of this system.

[srainhoutx]

998.7mb is lowest pressure via RECON. Just shy of 60 MPH winds.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Center of TS Bill nearing the Matagorda Bay coast.

Strong winds moving onshore across the upper TX coast.

Oil platform 15 miles SSE of Matagorda Island reported a peak wind gust of 58mph in the last hour.

Radar clearly shows the center of TS Bill SE of Palacios and moving toward the NW at 10-15mph. Large area of TS force winds is advancing toward the middle and upper TX coast. Bands of showers continue to move inland and the core rainfall will begin to move onto the coast in the next few hours over Matagorda and Brazoria Counties.

Tides are currently running 3.5-4.5 ft along the Gulf beaches and in Galveston Bay

Low level shear will be increasing this morning with feeder bands favoring isolated tornadoes and excessive rainfall rates.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/16/15 1107Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH TS BILL
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY ALONG WITH RECENT
POSITION FROM NHC INDICATES THAT CENTER OF TS BILL WAS ROUGHLY IN THE
VIC OF 28.0N/95.7W AND MOVING NW. ON THIS TRACK BILL SHOULD MAKE MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE VIC OF PSX. LATEST BLENDED
PW ANALYSIS ALONG WITH AREA GPS INDICATE THAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTER AND PW VALUES WERE
RANGING BETWEEN 2.40-2.50" OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS. IR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO E PORTIONS OF STORM
BUT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME FEEDER BANDS BEGINNING TO WORK ONSHORE NEAR AND
NE OF GLS. OFFSHORE MICROWAVE ESTIMATES FROM MOST RECENT NOAA AMSU PASS
(0825Z) INDICATE AREAL AVERAGE MAXIMUM RAINFALL RATES AROUND 1.20"/HR
JUST E OF THE CENTER, WITHIN E/W FEEDER BAND E OF BKS AND ALSO WITHIN
N/S ORIENTED FEEDER BAND E OF BRO. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WOULD SUGGEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER 6.00" JUST E OF THE CENTER.
THIS WOULD TEND TO IMPLY THAT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR CENTER OF FORECAST LANDFALL IN THE VIC OF
PSX AND EXTENDING NE WITHIN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARDS THE
VIC OF GLS.

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1112Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[srainhoutx]

Vortex Message:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 11:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 10:57:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 95°51'W (28.15N 95.85W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 58kts (From the ESE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 10:53:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND KT 190/22 KT

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

06162015 1132Z recon_AF308-0402A-BILL.png

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BILL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.0 West. Bill is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the
center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area
along the Texas coast later this morning and move inland over
south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected
before landfall occurs in a few hours. Weakening is forecast after
the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken
to a tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a WeatherFlow observing
station at Matagorda Bay reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4
inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area within the next hour or two.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet
Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of
eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

[wxman57]

Good morning. I'm still stuck at the airport in Chicago (since noon yesterday). Been awake for a bit more than 24 hrs. Managed to get on a 9:30 flight to IAH that arrives at 12:15. Hope the airport stays open. Bill should be making landfall by then.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. I'm still stuck at the airport in Chicago (since noon yesterday). Been awake for a bit more than 24 hrs. Managed to get on a 9:30 flight to IAH that arrives at 12:15. Hope the airport stays open. Bill should be making landfall by then.

Good luck! We're holding the fort down for you...

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:04Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2015
Storm Name: Bill (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 11:43:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°02'N 95°58'W (28.0333N 95.9667W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SSW (203°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 283° at 28kts (From the WNW at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SSW (203°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (39°) from the flight level center at 11:50:40Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 14kts (From the S at 16mph)

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

06162015 mcd0224.gif (9.27 KiB) Viewed 3198 times

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0224
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
819 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 161217Z - 161817Z

SUMMARY...NARROWLY FOCUSED CORES OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL ON EASTERN
SIDE OF T.S. BILL TO LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL NEARS THE COAST
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUPPORTED BY HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS A SMALL BUT VERY HIGH IMPACT AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR MATAGORDA BAY BY 18Z. THE EASTERN
INNER BAND/CORE HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE INNER CORE. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
LOBE OF THE MIDDLE VORTICITY ROTATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
INCREASED DEPTH AND HENCE EFFICIENCY OF RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF
2-3"/HR IN THIS CORE...GIVEN THE VERY DEEP MOIST PROFILE WITH
TOTAL PWATS AOA 2.5". TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
ARW AND NMMB APPEAR TO KEEP THIS MAXIMIZED CORE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE CENTER AND EVEN THOUGH THEY
APPEAR A BIT SLOW WITH THE TIMING AND RECENT JOGGING SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CENTER... THE HEAVIEST CORE SHOULD REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE OR NEAR MATAGORDA BAY THROUGH 13-14Z AS MAXIMIZED
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE HOWEVER STRONG
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT SOUTH EASTERLIES ON THE EASTERN
SIDE...A BROADER AREA OF MODERATE SHIELD PRECIPITATION IS TO BLOW
DOWNSTREAM PRODUCING RATES AROUND .5-1"/HR. THIS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR TOTALS NEAR 2-4" IN THE NEXT 6HRS ACROSS MATAGORDA,
WESTERN BRAZORIA...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE FOR POTENTIAL ENHANCED VERTICAL GROWTH AND CELL
EFFICIENCY. THE TIMING OF THE EXTREME RATES ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
HEMISPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION TOWARD
16-18Z AS THE CENTER MOVES ASHORE... NESDIS E-TRAP 6HR TOTALS
ENDING AT 18Z SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH 5" MAXIMA ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PSX.

FURTHER NORTHEAST...HOUSTON VICINITY...
OUTER BAND IS WELL ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION OF THE BAND. HOWEVER...RADAR
LOOP SHOWS SOME ARCING OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SUGGESTING AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRYING...ALLOWING FOR THEM TO
BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND DISRUPTING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
TRAINING. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NEAR TERM.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...