Wx Infinity Forums

Maybe we will get a reprieve in the weather department in June.
Stay tuned.

Larry Cosgrove sees this weather pattern continuing for at least 16 more days.

The GFS is suggesting lower pressures and a pesky upper low develops somewhere near SE Texas/SW Louisiana the first of next week along a stalled boundary. Depending on where this feature sets up or even develops, showers and storms could increase particularly near and East of the upper low. Time will tell.

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a developing upper low/trough very close to SE Texas and Louisiana during the first week of June. There continues to be a very potent Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave allowing rising air or favorable for thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific extending into the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean Sea. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) also seem favorable for thunderstorms to develop with rising air and the global computer models may be 'sniffing' an inverted trough meandering across the Gulf of Mexico later next week. We will see.

Here is a sight for sore eyes across Texas and Oklahoma for the next 7 days if the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is correct. For all the new folks that have joined us over the past 3 months on The KHOU Weather Forum and our social media feeds via Facebook and Twitter (TxWeatherBoard), we welcome you!

Finally back to normal weather conditions across SE TX begin today! A nice mostly dry day and week ahead for once and its about time. Only a 20-30% chance of showers this afternoon. The Houston-Galveston NWS state it well:

RESPITE FROM THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY!

Finally a beautiful normal SE TX tropical sky.

My sunglasses and I were finally reunited today.
It was a lovely meeting.
Here's to all Cat 5's and NO landfalls this season.

I'm looking forward to a most boring week in weather.

Hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin officially starts today and continues until November 30th. Thankfully we have a quiet weather pattern right now, but with a northerly flow aloft it is possible that any Mesoscale Convective Systems that develop near the Panhandle may drift S this week as they weaken in a very dry airmass. The upper ridge looks to continue throughout the work week but may begin to shift West this weekend as a very deep trough develops across the Eastern United States and what likely will be Major Hurricane Blanca nears the Pacific Coast of Mexico. The combination of a trough to our East and a Eestern Pacific Hurricane to our WSW with increasing moisture could offer some shower and storm chances late this weekend into early next week. There are some indications that pressures begin to lower across the Western Gulf of Mexico next week as the monsoonal trough drifts N and brings its tropical moisture from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf. Enjoy the quiet and dry start to the month of June after a very wet Spring season across our Region!

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper level high pressure trying to gain a foothold over the region and shut off the rainfall that has plagued the area for nearly the entire month of May.

The period from March 1st to May 31st has been the wettest Spring ever for the City of Houston with 26.61 inches in comparison this is more rainfall in a 3 month period than the entire drought year of 2011 (24.57in)!

So areas of Harris County Fort Bend Counties received over 20.0 inches of rainfall in the month of May alone.

Upper level flow is out of the north and northwest with a dry air mass in place so not expecting any rainfall today. Will have to keep an eye on potential MCS activity to our north on Tuesday as model soundings are a bit more unstable, but think any activity will likely remain north of the region.

Moisture level increase mid to late week, but so does the upper level ridging expanding out of MX. This should keep rain chances low until possibly late in the weekend.

River Flooding:

San Jacinto River:
River is falling back within banks this morning and will continue to fall.

Brazos River:
River is above flood stage at Richmond and Rosharon and appears to be at crest. Impacts continue across Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties and the river will only slowly fall over the next 48 hours.

Trinity River:
River remain in major flood at Liberty and this is likely to continue for the next several days as upstream flood waves move downstream. Many homes and subdivisions will remain cut off.

Finally, some nice weather (i.e., not flooding). Got out and washed my car yesterday, knowing It would be more than an hour before the next storm. While washing the car I heard a bunch of bluejays making a big racket across the street in a couple of pine trees. Heard something else in the tree that sounded like a monkey. I was going to walk over and see what it was when a large gray bird flew out of the pine tree and into our backyard oak tree. It was a large gray bird about the size of a parrot. Thought it might be a gray parrot at first. The bird flew back into the pine tree and began making the strange sounds again. The sounds were oddly familiar - I'd heard that bird before. Then I remembered - in a Tarzan movie! It's the standard jungle bird sound heard in all the movies, but it's not from Africa. It's an Australian kookaburra. I hear that many in the U.S. have them as pets. I guess one escaped.

Here's a video of a kookaburra singing. You'll recognize the bird. I suppose it was fitting, given all the rain of late. My yard was becoming a jungle...

https://www.google.com/search?q=kookabu ... 8&oe=utf-8

Dry weather looks to remain in the forecast as the upper ridge will build across our Region. The pattern appears to hold into the weekend, then changes may be lurking as we start the beginning of next week. The upper ridge is suggested to flatten out and shift West by the various computer guidance. Beyond the medium range, the European and to some extent the GFS are showing a possible area of lower pressure crossing from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. This is still well beyond a week away and a lot can change as we well know. Stay Tuned!

Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave: MJO: (Wet Phase) Euro: GFS:

I'm enjoying this sunshine and blue skies.
What a treat, wxman57, to have a kookaburra in your neighborhood. I hope it will be OK.
We have a large family of American crows living in our neighborhood this spring. Their call is not as pleasing as the kookaburra but I have been enjoying watching them.

[quote="srainhoutx"]Dry weather looks to remain in the forecast as the upper ridge will build across our Region. The pattern appears to hold into the weekend, then changes may be lurking as we start the beginning of next week. The upper ridge is suggested to flatten out and shift West by the various computer guidance. Beyond the medium range, the European and to some extent the GFS are showing a possible area of lower pressure crossing from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. This is still well beyond a week away and a lot can change as we well know. Stay Tuned!


I personally don't trust the Euro 10 days out. The last frame shows that low in the BOC forming out of virtually nothing in the GOT, crossing Mexico, and ending up in the BOC. I was talking about that with a WX expert at the NOAA weather station at HBU; he tells me that's a very unlikely scenario, and he went on to say that, being 10 days out makes it even more unlikely. But, hey, I'll stay tuned. I figure at the very least it'll just shunt tropical moisture to our state, something we don't need right now, or so Eric Berger said once.

P.S.
Some would wonder (like me) if this would be a southeast tx storm? Or a deep south tx storm if it developed. The reality is that there's no way to know this far out and there's no storm yet. It's still in the model watching stage at this point.

The 12Z GFS suggests the monsoonal trough will continue to slowly lift N into Southern Mexico, into the Bay of Campeche and the NW Caribbean Sea in the medium range. While Major Hurricane Blanca is expected to impact Los Cabos and the Baja Peninsula in a weakening state, heavy rainfall is suggested to develop across Mexico (particularly the higher terrain) into Arizona and New Mexico. The upper ridge that has allowed us to dry out after a very wet March, April and May looks to flatten out and shift W after the remnants of Blanca move inland and dissipate. This opens the door to a 'wetter' pattern as a rather deep Eastern trough develops and pressures lower in response to the monsoonal trough across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. A broad monsoonal gyre is suggested by the GFS to set up shop over the Yucatan Peninsula later next week as tropical moisture begins to approach the Texas and Louisiana Coast.

The 12Z European remains onboard with the monsoonal trough lifting N with an area of disturbed weather near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad monsoonal gyre (broad mid level/surface low pressure) is indicated as well. Pressures also are suggested to begin falling across the NW Caribbean and the Western Gulf indicating tropical moisture may well be headed N.

New Drought Index is out and as expected we have made significant gains across the Lone Star State of ending the multi year drought that peaked in 2011.

The overnight ensemble guidance is suggesting the upper ridge will temporarily build across New Mexico and Texas Friday into Saturday, but as Blanca makes its approach toward the Baja Peninsula the upper ridge will flatten out and move West. Isolated showers and storms begin to increase next week as the upper flow allows night time convection along a weak frontal boundary draped across Kansas and the Mid Mississippi Valley to head SE. There are still some indications that the monsoonal trough will continue lifting N into Mexico and the Bay of Campeche as well as the NW Caribbean Sea which is typical for this time of year. That additional tropical moisture lifting N may add additional rain chance later next week as a very broad and disorganized area of tropical showers and storms develop across the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions do not appear conducive for any tropical development in the Gulf at this time for next week. I've seen some chatter about a dry pattern developing that could allow drought continues to re establish. That does not appear likely in this pattern as our wet soils from 3 months of drought busting rainfall will not allow a 'drought feedback process' to become established. This looks much more like a typical Summer across the Region that some may have forgotten about since the multi year drought began back in late 2008...

The 12Z European and GFS continue to suggest a surge of tropical moisture associated with a tropical disturbance/wave of low pressure arriving into the Western Gulf later next week with lower pressures aloft increasing across Texas and portions of Western Louisiana. The global guidance is also suggesting higher pressures across Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Climate.gov updated their June forecast today suggesting cooler than normal temperatures and a return to a 'wetter' pattern across our Region.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/fe ... ns-updated#