JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[ticka1]

Well, I dont know what to do. I work downtown and after the mayors speech I know my office will not close. I dont want to get stuck downtown due to flooding. Is the metro area gonna be impacted bad or will that area just get miminal rain?

I am in the same boat but I everything I read does not say stay home. Looks like i will be going to work too. I dont think we will get the rain -we are too far from the core of the storm.

[srainhoutx]

Well, I dont know what to do. I work downtown and after the mayors speech I know my office will not close. I dont want to get stuck downtown due to flooding. Is the metro area gonna be impacted bad or will that area just get miminal rain?

I am in the same boat but I everything I read does not say stay home. Looks like i will be going to work too. I dont think we will get the rain -we are too far from the core of the storm.

I wouldn't be so sure. The core of the heaviest rainfall will be along and East of the center and where it tracks. Daytime heating is going to increase heavy rainfall chances along the Eastern and North Eastern quadrants. That places DT in an area that needs to closely monitor the radar trends and follow the official advisories from Jeff, the National Weather Service and our County officials.

[MRG93415]

Thanks Srain, I know no one can predict what is gonna happen exactly. I just dont want to get stuck down there and have to sleep at my desk..LOL

[ticka1]

Well, I dont know what to do. I work downtown and after the mayors speech I know my office will not close. I dont want to get stuck downtown due to flooding. Is the metro area gonna be impacted bad or will that area just get miminal rain?

I am in the same boat but I everything I read does not say stay home. Looks like i will be going to work too. I dont think we will get the rain -we are too far from the core of the storm.

I wouldn't be so sure. The core of the heaviest rainfall will be along and East of the center and where it tracks. Daytime heating is going to increase heavy rainfall chances along the Eastern and North Eastern quadrants. That places DT in an area that needs to closely monitor the radar trends and follow the official advisories from Jeff, the National Weather Service and our County officials.

thanks for the update srainhoutx -i dont want to be stuck -even with TS bill going inland near Port OConnor -downtown Houston is still in the target area for all the rain? Looks like I will just take a vacation day and not chance mother nature. I can tell you with little rain over night there are going to be alot of folks going to work - even if the rain does happen it will be later today.

[bikerack]

FYI. HISD closed.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 160930Z - 161130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF T.S. BILL MAY POSE A RISK FOR A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AND FAR WRN LA. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...OUTER RAIN BANDS WELL NE OF THE CENTER OF T.S. BILL
HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED SIGNS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENTS...WITH A FEW SMALL DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
ADVANCING NWD/NNWWD OVER COASTAL SE TX/SRN LA. ONE
RIGHT-MOVING...WEAKLY ROTATING CELL RECENTLY ADVANCED THROUGH ORANGE
COUNTY TX...AND CELLS ALIGNING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BAND NEAR/S OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
MEAN-FLOW-DEVIANT MOTION. THE LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IS A
MANIFESTATION OF THE WEAKLY BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY
INLAND...OWING TO THE LACK OF DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING.
HOWEVER...HIGH THETA-E ASSOCIATED MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO
EXTEND ONSHORE FROM THE WARM NORTH-GULF WATERS...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION STREAMING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE LATE-OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE LCH AND POE VWPS SAMPLE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.S.
BILL...SUPPORTING AROUND 20-25 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR...WITH SLIGHT
VEERING WITH HEIGHT BOLSTERING LOW-LEVEL SRH. SUCH WIND PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR WEAKLY ROTATING SHOWERS...AND A
SHORT-DURATION TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING
FOR THE TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED BY
SUBSEQUENT MCD ISSUANCE BY AROUND 1230Z. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
REGARDING T.S. BILL...PLEASE REFERENCE THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/16/2015


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

[mckinne63]

Thanks Srain, I know no one can predict what is gonna happen exactly. I just dont want to get stuck down there and have to sleep at my desk..LOL

That is my concern also, I don't want to get stuck at the office. I am normally at the office already, but have decided to wait it out and see what's going to happen. I do have a laptop, so can work from here as needed.

[ticka1]

Not going to chance it - staying home and taking vacation day - office still open. Might go in later

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM BILL CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAKES
LANDFALL IN THE PORT OCONNOR/MATAGORDA BAY AREA. WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED (APPROACHING 2.50 INCHES)...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. PER SPC`S 06Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TIDES ARE PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND IN/AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY
AREA. LATER TODAY AND ON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING WINDS
ALONG WITH LOWERING TIDES AS BILL MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. ANTICIPATE DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE
REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA. 42
&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS JUST OFFSHORE OF PORT O`CONNOR AT 4 AM
CDT...EXPECTED TO BE ONSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALL
MARINERS ARE URGED TO STAY IN PORT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE OUTER
BANDS OF BILL ROTATE ONSHORE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 25-35 KT SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
KNOTS...OVER THE MORE WESTERN WATERS/MATAGORDA BAY (GENERALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF POINTS OFFSHORE OF FREEPORT). ELSEWHERE OVER
MORE EASTERN WATERS/GALVESTON BAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WITH 30 KT GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
CLOSER TO BILL`S CENTER...MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS COULD ACHIEVE 15
FEET OVER THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS. GENERALLY...ROUGH BAY
CONDITIONS WITH NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT
RANGE/OFFSHORE 10 TO NEAR 15 FEET WITH LONGER SWELL PERIODS OF
AROUND 10 SECONDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY... CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN BILL`S
WAKE. 31

[mcheer23]

Question...When does the worst come through Sugar Land?

[srainhoutx]

RECON is en route. The plane is about 50 miles S of Lake Charles.

[srainhoutx]

Question...When does the worst come through Sugar Land?

We have a new pinned Thread with all the radar loops so that everyone can look at there locations across our Region that will help answer these questions for everyone's convenience.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2031

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BILL LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AL022015
518 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

...TROPICAL STORM BILL APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LIBERTY...COLORADO...HARRIS...CHAMBERS...WHARTON...FORT
BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...BRAZORIA AND GALVESTON

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TX OR ABOUT 110
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TX
- 27.9N 95.7W
- STORM INTENSITY 50 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
MATAGORDA BAY AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND BAYS. OBSERVED LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE VALUES AND THESE LEVELS COULD RISE ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO PRIOR TO LANDFALL. COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS,
ARROYOS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS
IMMINENT/ONGOING PHASE - DO NOT RETURN TO EVACUATED AREAS UNTIL
HAZARDOUS WINDS DIMINISH AND FLOOD WATERS ABATE.

RECOVERY PHASE - DO NOT RETURN TO EVACUATED AREAS UNTIL IT IS SAFE.
LISTEN FOR THE ALL-CLEAR SIGNAL FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED BY
NOW.

FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.

CHECK-IN WITH YOUR EMERGENCY POINTS OF CONTACT AMONG FAMILY, FRIENDS,
AND WORKMATES. INFORM THEM OF YOUR STATUS AND WELL-BEING. LET THEM
KNOW HOW YOU INTEND TO RIDE OUT THE STORM AND WHEN YOU PLAN TO
CHECK-IN AGAIN.

KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED AND HANDY. ALSO, CELL PHONE CHARGERS
FOR AUTOMOBILES CAN BE HELPFUL AFTER THE STORM. LOCATE YOUR CHARGERS
AND KEEP THEM WITH YOUR CELL PHONE.

IN EMERGENCIES IT IS BEST TO REMAIN CALM. STAY INFORMED AND FOCUSED
ON THE SITUATION AT HAND. EXERCISE PATIENCE WITH THOSE YOU ENCOUNTER.
BE A GOOD SAMARITAN AND HELPFUL TO OTHERS.

IF RELOCATING TO A NEARBY SHELTER OR TO THE HOME OF A FAMILY MEMBER
OR FRIEND, DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.
REMEMBER, MANY BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS WILL BE CLOSED ONCE HIGHER WINDS
ARRIVE. ALSO, IF YOU ENCOUNTER WATER COVERING THE ROAD, SEEK AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. ALWAYS OBEY OFFICIAL ROAD SIGNS FOR CLOSURES AND
DETOURS.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF
THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES.
BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH IT
RESIDES. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AROUND 11 AM, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

[ticka1]

any guess what time rains will start?

[srainhoutx]

It's raining in NW Harris County now.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR MATAGORDA BAY THIS MORNING. ITS TRACK BEING GUIDED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST
PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF VICTORIA AROUND MIDDAY TO THE
AUSTIN AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH JUST
WEST OF I-35 OVER NORTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN
MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PWS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.6
INCHES LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COLLAPSE CLOSER TO THE CENTER TONIGHT WITH ONE OR MORE BANDS
FEEDING INTO THE CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE BANDS WILL SET
UP OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ZONES OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND PWS REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE CARLOS MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS...HILL COUNTRY AREAS 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SYSTEM DEVIATE FROM
ITS FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE DIFFERENT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

RAINFALL IMPACTS...MUCH OF THE AREA IS SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
THIS SPRING. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING AND MODERATE
TO MAJOR FLOODING OVER SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT AREAS. HAVE
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE HILL COUNTRY AS
BANDS MAY SET OF THERE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES AND LAVACA COUNTIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE COUNTIES. ADJACENT
COUNTIES MAY SEE TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS INCLUDING EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AUSTIN AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CUERO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO
BURNET LINE. THE TIMING OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS WILL BE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR AXIS AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BUILD TOWARD EACH OTHER. THE AIRMASS ALSO DRIES WITH PWS NEAR 2
INCHES ON FRIDAY LOWERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE RELIANT ON HEATING TO
DEVELOP WITH POPS ONLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

[Katdaddy]

TS Bill is approaching the coast this morning near Matagorda Bay with the heaviest rains approaching Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. The development of very rain is still likely in this tropical environment across the Houston-Galveston areas leading to high rainfall rates resulting in rapid flash flooding.

[Scott747]

Definitely easy to track now.

Recon should begin giving some good obs on the system.