JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 1137 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM SHAVANO PARK TO DOWNTOWN SAN ANTONIO TO
ELMENDORF AND ANOTHER BAND FROM GREY FOREST TO LEON VALLEY.
DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...HELOTES...ALAMO
HEIGHTS...WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO
PARK...OLMOS PARK...SOMERSET...ELMENDORF...CHINA GROVE...LACKLAND
AFB...SEA WORLD...CROSS MOUNTAIN...THE DOMINION...CASTLE HILLS AND
BALCONES HEIGHTS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[Rip76]

I never trust my eyes this early.
Maybe it's just because of cloud tops giving that appearance.

[unome]

it looks to me like it's about done eating the initial gulp of dry air for lunch & it's tilting nw to se, toward the lower pressures in the western gulf

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/?channel=ir

http://www.sailwx.info/wxobs/pressure.phtml

[srainhoutx]

Here is the latest RECON missions tasked for 91L and Carlos. The Hurricane Hunters will be very active the next several days. This does not include the mission tasked later this afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 M EDT SUN 14 JUNE 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-020

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 15/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 15/0930Z
       D. 25.5N 93.5W
       E. 15/1115Z TO 15/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 15/2330Z, 16/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
       C. 15/2100Z
       D. 26.8N 95.2W
       E. 15/2315Z TO 16/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 16/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 16/0915Z
       D. 28.2N 96.3W
       E. 16/1115Z TO 16/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE CARLOS
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
       A. 15/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOS
       C. 15/1300Z
       D. 17.0N 102.4W
       E. 15/1700Z TO 15/1930Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE FIX ON
       HURRICANE CARLOS AT 16/1730Z NEAR 18.4N 104.3W.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/14/15 1657Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1645Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...S-CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST VIS STLT IMAGERY/RADAR SHOWING
NEW TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INVOF REMNANT MCV CENTERED NEAR HDO.
INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN TX WITH GOES
SOUNDER INDICATING CAPES HAVE QUICKLY CLIMBED TO NEAR 3000 J/KG.
THE EXPERIMENTAL STLT CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCT IS NOW LATCHING
ON TO THE IDEA OF NUMEROUS TSTMS INITIATING ALONG CU CLOUD STREAMERS
LOCATED S AND SE OF DEVELOPING TSTMS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID 70 DEW POINTS POOLED ACROSS THE AREA.
ONSHORE SERLY FLOW HAS ALLOW AIRMASS TO QUICKLY REBOUND FROM EARLIER
ROUND OF HVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY AT BAZ WHERE IT HAS JUMPED
TO 77F TD IN THE PAST HR.

ALSO WATCHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHES EWD S OF DRT AND E OF
THE RIO GRANDE FROM A MCS THAT HAS SINCED DISSIPATED ACROSS THE BORDER IN
OLD MEXICO FURTHER ENHANCING LLVL CONVERGENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY
EXPANDING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS
AREAS THAT RECEIVED HVY RAINFALL JUST THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.0"/HR.
THINKING OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR ACITVITY TO EXPAND/SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON TOWARD STRONGEST LLVL INFLOW/INSTABILITY AXIS.

[srainhoutx]

Update from NWS Houston/Galveston:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AT A DECENT SPEED SO RAINFALL IS NOT
STACKING UP LIKE YESTERDAY. THAT SAID SOME STORMS STILL PUTTING
OUT 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN VERY QUICKLY WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR STREET
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS OR QUICK RISES ON CREEKS/BAYOUS.

ACCORDINGLY EVERYONE IS FIXED ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER YUCATAN
MAYBE S GULF JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY BE
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW. HARD TO SAY IF ANY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED.
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY NOT EXACTLY BE PURELY TROPICAL TO START BUT
A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM THAT COULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A WARM CORE
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

EARLY 12Z NAM HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL AT ALL...GFS IS SOMEWHAT
BETTER WITH A MORE DIFFUSE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM TO START. SYSTEM
STILL ON TRACK WITH MOTION TOWARDS THE TX COAST. WILL WAIT FOR
REST OF 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

39

[Rip76]

Looks like there may be a closed low associated with 91L.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like there may be a closed low associated with 91L.

It appears that way. Winds in Campeche have switched to the WNW and Merida has gone calm.

[Katdaddy]

Looking a little better this afternoon. Enjoying the beautiful partly sunny tropical skies. This afternoon's model runs and AFD will be very interesting.

[unome]

70% at 2


000
ABNT20 KNHC 141742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough of low pressure has moved off of the Yucatan
peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The
system is accompanied by an area of thunderstorms and winds to
near gale force well to the east of the trough, but it does not yet
have a well-defined closed circulation. This weather system is
expected to move northwestward over the next couple of days across
the western Gulf of Mexico, where upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. An
Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the
system late this afternoon, with another mission planned for
Monday morning. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, please see High Seas forecasts as well as products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Rip76]

Further West than I would have imagined.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance all suggest a Middle/Upper Texas Coast landfall with this disturbance. Copious amounts of rainfall continue to be advertised by the computer guidance along and to the East of where the low center tracks.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Austin/San Antonio is recommending people not travel around the San Antonio/Bexar County area. San Antonio Fire Department is making numerous high water rescues from stalled vehicles.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0212
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 141837Z - 142237Z

SUMMARY...A GROWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER BEXAR COUNTY IS
BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE/GROW INTO AN AREA WHERE IT RAINED HEAVY
THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION WAS SEEN
IN THE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. NEW CONVECTION HAS
FLARED ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK, WHICH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND/OR EXPANDING OUTWARD. FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE LIGHT, WITH 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS LINES
INDICATING A SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY BEING THE MOST LIKELY.

INFLOW INTO THE REGION IS 20-25 KTS, AND PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS,
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH SHOULD ALSO ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AN INVADING MCV CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
COULD BE AIDING THIS COMPLEX'S DEVELOPMENT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES (FFGS) SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION
IN THIS AREA, WHICH DROPPED 6" OF RAIN LOCALLY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2" SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5", WHICH
WOULD EXCEED THE FFGS. SOME OF THE LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE
URBAN, WHICH WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO STAND RAIN RATES THIS HIGH.
THERE IS A SIGNAL WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 3-4" IN THIS REGION. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS HEIGHTENED IN
THIS AREA.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
144 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

GUADALUPE TX-COMAL TX-BEXAR TX-
144 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN LIVE OAK...CIBOLO AND GARDEN RIDGE. THIS
WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES INDICATE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...UNIVERSAL CITY...SCHERTZ...CIBOLO...
LIVE OAK...KIRBY...SELMA...WINDCREST...GARDEN RIDGE...ST. HEDWIG...
ELMENDORF...CHINA GROVE...MARION...SANTA CLARA...CALAVERAS LAKE...
NORTHCLIFF...ZUEHL...CONVERSE AND BRACKEN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[Andrew]

So current model consensus still indicate enough development for a TD or even a weak TS. What differs between the global models though is the overall movement. The GFS camp indicate that 91L will have a faster landfall sometime midday on Tuesday, while the ECMWF indicate a Wednesday landfall a little farther north. Either way both models indicate the weakness in ridging will be present for much of the weak. The concern here is the breakdown in steering towards Tuesday midday. If this occurs, a temporary stall or slow down could occur leading to a real flooding concern. The GFS is the most conservative with totals across the region with 5-10 inches of rain, while the ECMWF indicate a narrow band of 15 inches of rain just to the southwest of Harris County. With current visible satellite analysis, it is clear that this disturbance is rather large. I would side more with the ECMWF on this one. Keep an eye out tonight and tomorrow will be an active period on the board.

[rnmm]

A little more North as into Louisiana for a direct hit?

[srainhoutx]

A little more North as into Louisiana for a direct hit?

The Euro suggested a landfall near Matagorda Bay (Bay City). The guidance is looking fairly straight forward into the Middle/Upper Texas Coast with the possible center of this system.

[davidiowx]

Is it me or does it appear to have sped up quite a bit?

[rnmm]

A little more North as into Louisiana for a direct hit?

The Euro suggested a landfall near Matagorda Bay (Bay City). The guidance is looking fairly straight forward into the Middle/Upper Texas Coast with the possible center of this system.

Thank you! And thank you all for being patient with me!