May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

[mckinne63]

We used to live in those apartments! But that was 27 years ago. Hope all are safe.

[Cromagnum]

Overhyped on the rain (not complaining). The line moved through so fast we barely got 1//2 inch. Future track is showing nothing until Monday night and then a fast line again. No way we are going to get 4-5 inches like they have been saying all week.

[srainhoutx]

The atmosphere is worked over and has stabilized in the wake of the powerful MCS that brought flooding to portions of Central Texas as well as Oklahoma. Unfortunately we are not done with the active and unsettled pattern. A very potent shortwave is diving S toward the base of the upper trough towards Northern Mexico. That feature will be our weather maker on Monday. PW's are expected to increase to near 2 inches once again setting the stage for another round of severe weather tomorrow and yet another MCS. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow across SE Texas into portions of Western Louisiana. The guidance continues to advertise the next MCS will organize across the Edwards Plateau and the Balcones Escarpment creating another Flash Flood threat for the Hill Country and points E.

The remainder of the week looks to bring more scattered daytime showers and storms until next weekend when another trough begins to organize to our West and probably more importantly, an Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone nears the Pacific Coast of Mexico somewhere close to Cabo San Lucas spreading its mid/upper level moisture across Mexico and eventually Texas.

[jasons2k]

For the first time in 3 years, Lake Travis is now at 50% capacity. The lake rose 5% in just 12 hours ... and we're talking about a 680-foot lake folks. Amazing. Tomorrow is going to be another rough one.

that's pretty awesome!

680 is the elevation, relative to sea-level, of the top. the maximum depth is 210ft.

[srainhoutx]

Updates from Jeff that have not been posted this morning:

***Historical and catastrophic flooding ongoing along the Blanco River at Wimberley and San Marcos Texas.***

***Flash Flood Emergency in effect for Hays County and the Blanco River.***

Overnight rainfall of up to 11.3 inches above Wimberley on the headwaters of the Blanco River has resulted in a tremendous flash flood down the river early this morning (in the middle of the night)

At Wimberley the river rose over 30 ft in less than 3 hours and is currently. The river crested at 40.2ft (Flood Stage is 13 ft). Previous record flood level was 33.3 ft (86 years old). Since there has been no gage report since 100am…it is likely the USGS has been washed away.

Law enforcement is estimating at least 350 homes along the river have been inundated some to their rooftops…some have been completely washed away. Evacuations and rescues are underway in both San Marcos and Wimberley and mandatory evacuations have been ordered for the Blanco River downstream in Caldwell County. Mainlanes of I-35 at the river are flooded and impassable.

This is a life threatening flash flood….seek higher ground immediately to save your life!


Historic river flash flood continues down the Blanco and now San Marcos Rivers.

State of Emergency has been declared for Hays County and Caldwell County.

Flash Flood Emergency remains in effect for the Blanco and San Marcos Rivers.

Flash flood on the Blanco River has passed San Marcos and is reaching the confluence of the San Marcos River. Mandatory evacuation order in in effect for all residents along the San Marcos River in Caldwell County. Historically devastating flooding has occurred along the entire Blanco River watershed overnight. Record crest were recorded at Wimberley before the USGS gage was destroyed…this record crest was set in 1929! At least 350 homes have been flooded and hundreds of residents rescued from rooftops. Rescue operations continue from rooftops around San Marcos with an many as 400 persons in shelters.

The San Marcos River will rise to levels about 2-3 ft below its historic record flood at Lulling this afternoon.

ATXFLOODS.org is currently showing 208 low water crossing flooded across C TX.

Locally:
Large band of fast moving thunderstorms…some producing wind damage…is move east of SE TX. This complex extends well southward over the western Gulf of Mexico. Air mass over SE TX should be stabilized from the morning convection and lack of sustained moisture inflow being ingested into the offshore complex. Meso scale models including the TX TECH WRF show attempts at new storms developing along a left over boundary of some sort over the coastal counties late this morning. I have my doubts that this boundary is actually there since I can’t find it on surface observation nor radar data. The models are likely hinting at the returning moisture intersecting a surface or 850mb boundary. This is a good setup for additional storms and heavy rainfall…but I am not sure the models are fully grasping the offshore activity. The offshore activity will have to weaken before southerly low level flow and moisture advection can be re-established. Hence the forecast for today is of low confidence.

Air mass is still generally extremely moist and as seen overnight between Blanco and Wimberley TX (11.30 inches of rainfall) intense short term rainfall rates are possible.

Other model guidance is trying to develop storms this evening from SW LA moving toward the SW which I find suspect as well.

The next strong upper level disturbance will approach the area Monday afternoon and another large thunderstorm complex will likely be the result. Will favor areas along and N of US 59 at the most threat for this complex with both excessive rainfall and possibly damaging winds.

Additional Rainfall:
Additional widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches will be possible. With grounds saturated and rivers near or above flood stage…flooding is almost certain with more rainfall. Main concerns will be cell training of excessive short term rainfall rates.

Extended:
Looks like the area will get a brief break from rainfall Wednesday and Thursday before yet another large upper level storm system moves into the SW US next Friday-weekend. Additional bouts of flooding rainfall may accompany this system as well especially if a forecasted EPAC tropical cyclone moves toward the coast of western Mexico and its moisture becomes entrained in the upper level trough and brought across TX.

Hydro:

Flash Flood Emergency: Blanco River and San Marcos River

Tremendous flood wave on the Blanco River with empty into the San Marcos River and then the Guadalupe River above Gonzales, TX. Major flooding is forecast along the Guadalupe River from above Gonzales TX to below Victoria, TX this week.

Flood Warning:
Entire Trinity River watershed
Pedernales River
Medina River
San Antonio River
San Gabriel River
Frio River
Sabinal River
Nueces River
Neches River
Sabine River

Visit http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/ for flood forecast and crest information.


Extremely serious…potentially life threatening…river flash flood

Record flood wave generated on the Blanco and San Marcos Rivers will enter the Guadalupe River early Monday.

Major flooding is forecasted at both Gonzales, TX and Cuero, TX requiring evacuations. Hundreds of homes will be flooded…some to the rooftops along the river. River will be over a mile wide north of Gonzales TX.

Flood Impacts at Gonzales TX:
45
Flow reaches the floor of the old power plant and to the slab of the electric plant. Water is several feet deep in the baseball and concession buildings in the city park. Flooding is several miles wide in the flood plain just northwest of Gonzales. Flow approaches lower homes in the Tinsley Creek flood plain in Gonzales as the Guadalupe River backs up. Any flow down Tinsley Creek over the backflow can flood homes.

43
Major flooding closes Highways 183, 97 and Farm to Market 108. Runoff down Tinsley Creek in Gonzales added to the Guadalupe River backwater can flood lowest homes near the creek. Secondary roads and streets near the river are flooded and dangerous to motorists.

Flood Impacts at Cuero TX:


40
Massive flooding is occurring in the River Oaks, River Haven, and Cypress Valley subdivisions ten miles south of Cuero near Thomaston. Over one hundred homes are flooded up to nine feet requiring the evacuation of hundreds of people. All roads into Cuero are closed except Highway 87 which also closes several miles south of Cuero. The old CP&L plant floods. Hundreds of livestock in the area are cut off and potentially drowned. Flow threatens to pass across the flood plain into Gholke Creek and Cuero.


38
Major lowland flooding reaches tens of homes downstream near Thomaston in the River Oaks, River Haven and Cypress Valley subdivisions. Approaches to all bridges into Cuero close except Highway 87. The old CP&L plant floods and water reaches the transformer. Livestock are cut off and potenitally drowned.



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[unome]

GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Visible Loop, over Texas 05/24

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... peed_ms=80

zoomed http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... peed_ms=80

other options: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/dev/lindsey/loops/

[srainhoutx]

Medina Lake rose 27 feet overnight.

[unome]

Medina River gauge at Medina Lake



all Medina River gauges: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/glance.p ... rid=203676

Medina Lake water levels http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reserv ... ual/medina

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z guidance continues to suggest tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours could be very wet and stormy across portions of Central and SE Texas. The next shortwave in Southern California continues to dive into the base of the upper trough to our West. The Storm Prediction Center update for Day 2 continues a Slight Risk for Severe Storms across Central, N Central,SE and E Texas for tomorrow. The latest guidance suggests a bit of a negative tilt of the upper trough as the shortwave begins to approach the Texas Panhandle meaning the dynamics should become favorable for strong to severe storms to organize. Once again heavy rainfall appears possible as the atmosphere begins to destabilize tomorrow afternoon. Some of the various computer models are suggesting a possible MCS developing over the Hill Country and moving E tomorrow evening.

[texoz]

More perspective on the Blanco River flooding. Many cypress trees that were estimated to be 100s of years old were washed away.

Also, it's possible the death toll will rise. I'm reading 2nd hand reports that friends/family are missing. Best hope is that these missing were able to flee before it was too late. However, with reports of 200-300 homes swept away it will be a miracle if only a few people perished.

[Paul Robison]

Does the Houston Metro stand to lose thousands of trees if this statement from NWS Disco verifies? Read:

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

Consider: Even if most of the thunderstorms have winds no stronger than, say, 30mph, it's possible (likely?) we could STILL see widespread fallen trees and power lines just about everywhere in the metro tomorrow, same as with an icing event. Anyone have any thoughts? Am I reading what they say right?

[Texaspirate11]

Does the Houston Metro stand to lose thousands of trees if this statement from NWS Disco verifies? Read:

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

Consider: Even if most of the thunderstorms have winds no stronger than, say, 30mph, it's possible (likely?) we could STILL see widespread fallen trees and power lines just about everywhere in the metro tomorrow, same as with an icing event. Anyone have any thoughts? Am I reading what they say right?

Paul what they are advising is that we are already at the saturation point and it wont take much for a tree to become uprooted. It won't take much at this point. That doesn't mean every tree will fall or there will 1,000 trees everywhere. Its just a heads up that trees already have reached their "tipping" point. I have friends in Wimberley who told me they lost old River Cypress trees - and they are huge trees due to the weather event.
Today, I saw a small tree down. Just one. And that was on Gessner near where the EF1 tornado hit. Just one small tree.
I believe most of the Monday storms will stay North of Houston - where the rivers don't need anymore water.
Stay safe and weather aware.

[Paul Robison]

Does the Houston Metro stand to lose thousands of trees if this statement from NWS Disco verifies? Read:

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

Consider: Even if most of the thunderstorms have winds no stronger than, say, 30mph, it's possible (likely?) we could STILL see widespread fallen trees and power lines just about everywhere in the metro tomorrow, same as with an icing event. Anyone have any thoughts? Am I reading what they say right?

Paul what they are advising is that we are already at the saturation point and it wont take much for a tree to become uprooted. It won't take much at this point. That doesn't mean every tree will fall or there will 1,000 trees everywhere. Its just a heads up that trees already have reached their "tipping" point. I have friends in Wimberley who told me they lost old River Cypress trees - and they are huge trees due to the weather event.
Today, I saw a small tree down. Just one. And that was on Gessner near where the EF1 tornado hit. Just one small tree.
I believe most of the Monday storms will stay North of Houston - where the rivers don't need anymore water.
Stay safe and weather aware.

I meant no drama, Texas Pirate. None whatsoever. But, hey, I know some trees around my house that just might tump over (on me, maybe) as a consequence of what our friendly neighborhood weatherman just said.

Uh, folks, is there anything to what Texas Pirate just said about the Monday storms staying north of Houston where they obviously don't need anymore rain? Does she have a point? NAM HIRES 18Z run seems to think so, btw.

[Texaspirate11]

Does the Houston Metro stand to lose thousands of trees if this statement from NWS Disco verifies? Read:

IN ADDITION TO TRAINING STORMS...DYNAMICS W/ THIS SYSTEM ALSO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. GROUNDS ARE WET AND TREES ARE
MORE PRONE TO BE BLOWN DOWN WITH LESS INTENSE WINDS THAN THEY
MIGHT OTHERWISE.

Consider: Even if most of the thunderstorms have winds no stronger than, say, 30mph, it's possible (likely?) we could STILL see widespread fallen trees and power lines just about everywhere in the metro tomorrow, same as with an icing event. Anyone have any thoughts? Am I reading what they say right?

Paul what they are advising is that we are already at the saturation point and it wont take much for a tree to become uprooted. It won't take much at this point. That doesn't mean every tree will fall or there will 1,000 trees everywhere. Its just a heads up that trees already have reached their "tipping" point. I have friends in Wimberley who told me they lost old River Cypress trees - and they are huge trees due to the weather event.
Today, I saw a small tree down. Just one. And that was on Gessner near where the EF1 tornado hit. Just one small tree.
I believe most of the Monday storms will stay North of Houston - where the rivers don't need anymore water.
Stay safe and weather aware.

I meant no drama, Texas Pirate. None whatsoever. But, hey, I know some trees around my house that just might tump over (on me, maybe) as a consequence of what our friendly neighborhood weatherman just said.

Uh, folks, is there anything to what Texas Pirate just said about the Monday storms staying north of Houston where they obviously don't need anymore rain? Does she have a point? NAM HIRES 18Z run seems to think so, btw.

Paul - you actually bring up a very good point concerning trees, to be honest. One of the things we stress for hurricane preparation is the pruning back of trees that overhang over homes, or wires or could damage your roof! Or tumble over into your neighbors' yards and cause damage. These rain events, I suppose, brought that fact early to us. We tend to forget when getting ready for hurricane season that caring for our outside landscape is also part of the plan.
So no drama and I'm sorry you took it that way - you actually made me remember an important fact. I hope you remain safe. I really do believe the major event Monday will stay North of us - I live near the bay area so I think we'll be okay
I hope you do too.

[Paul Robison]

Paul - you actually bring up a very good point concerning trees, to be honest. One of the things we stress for hurricane preparation is the pruning back of trees that overhang over homes, or wires or could damage your roof! Or tumble over into your neighbors' yards and cause damage. These rain events, I suppose, brought that fact early to us. We tend to forget when getting ready for hurricane season that caring for our outside landscape is also part of the plan.
So no drama and I'm sorry you took it that way - you actually made me remember an important fact. I hope you remain safe. I really do believe the major event Monday will stay North of us - I live near the bay area so I think we'll be okay
I hope you do too

Thank you for everything, Texas Pirate. But, as to the matter of us being okay....

From 10:27 HGX DISCO:

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

Any thoughts?

[Texaspirate11]

Paul - you actually bring up a very good point concerning trees, to be honest. One of the things we stress for hurricane preparation is the pruning back of trees that overhang over homes, or wires or could damage your roof! Or tumble over into your neighbors' yards and cause damage. These rain events, I suppose, brought that fact early to us. We tend to forget when getting ready for hurricane season that caring for our outside landscape is also part of the plan.
So no drama and I'm sorry you took it that way - you actually made me remember an important fact. I hope you remain safe. I really do believe the major event Monday will stay North of us - I live near the bay area so I think we'll be okay
I hope you do too

Thank you for everything, Texas Pirate. But, as to the matter of us being okay....

From 10:27 HGX DISCO:

IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE A TAD HIGHER THAN WITH
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND MORE
INSTABILITY...WHILE CONTINUING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.

Any thoughts?

Well my friend, I cant help you with the forecast - I'm not a met, nor do I play one on TV
I can only help people prepare and after a storm get them back to some sort of "normalcy"
So forgive me - I wish I did have that 8 ball though
Lets see what tomorrow brings and you're doing right by following this wacky weather and keeping up
with the HGX discussions.
Sorry I cant be more of help on the predictions....I know our pro mets here have been very
busy and probably exhausted at this point, they probably cant respond right now - so, sorry you were stuck with me....

[Paul Robison]

[/quote] Well my friend, I cant help you with the forecast - I'm not a met, nor do I play one on TV
I can only help people prepare and after a storm get them back to some sort of "normalcy"
So forgive me - I wish I did have that 8 ball though
Lets see what tomorrow brings and you're doing right by following this wacky weather and keeping up
with the HGX discussions.
Sorry I cant be more of help on the predictions....I know our pro mets here have been very
busy and probably exhausted at this point, they probably cant respond right now - so, sorry you were stuck with me....[/quote]

FWIW, a lot of the current forecast models, even the GFS, seem to depict the severe weather marching N/NE, sparing most of the metro. NAM 12Z depicts rainfall in the metro, though, so I will not ignore that one. Anyone find this helpful?

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance is somewhat split into two camps with the Global operational guidance being more N or closer to NE Texas into Arkansas and Missouri with the strong to severe storms and the short-term meso guidance such as the WRF - AWR suggesting strong to severe storms will develop further S near Austin/Bastrop and generally along and N of the I-10 Corridor into East Texas and Western Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms across portions of Central, SE, East and NE Texas for today with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. Bowing segments of any organizing thunderstorm complex or MCS could spin up a brief tornado or two as we witnessed yesterday morning in SW Houston and the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex. The biggest concern is for slow moving training thunderstorms capable of dropping 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates on top of already saturated grounds and higher than normal Rivers and streams. The shortwave continues to drop into the base of the trough to our West and should be near the Big Bend/West Central Texas area during peak heating this afternoon.

Except thunderstorms to begin developing later this morning across the Edwards Plateau and the Balcones Escarpment before organizing into a squall line and beginning to slowly march E late this afternoon into the evening hours. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall across portions of Hill Country, the Middle and Upper Texas Coast including SE Texas into Louisiana. Isolated rainfall totals could exceed 3+ inches within the outlined Moderate Risk area, so Flash Flood Watcheto been extended S to include the Coastal tier of Counties of SE Texas and may need to be extended E into South Central Louisiana later today.

Looking ahead for the upcoming work week, more scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms look possible with an aerial coverage increase pencilled in next weekend as another Western trough organizes and an Eastern Pacific Tropical system develops and nears the West Coast of Mexico.

[redneckweather]

Storms starting to fire up from Big Spring and clear down to Laredo and pushing eastward. Looks like it could be a pretty line that will be marching eastward.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff as of 7:12AM:

Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon into the evening.

Water vapor images this morning indicate a small but potent upper level disturbance near El Paso this morning moving eastward. East of this feature low level moisture is surging back into TX this morning behind the large MCS from yesterday. Air mass across WC and SW TX has recovered and a large supercell is currently crossing the Rio Grande at Del Rio with additional strong to severe storms northward toward San Angelo. Air mass locally remains somewhat drier and stable from yesterday and will take some time to recover this morning. Activity to the west will move eastward, but there are varying model solutions on how the convection will evolve and who will be impacted.

Air mass will become very unstable by mid to late afternoon and think the severe threat with this system may be equal if not slightly higher than the heavy rainfall/flood threat. SPC has placed all of SE TX in a slight risk for severe weather. While the air mass will be very unstable this afternoon, shear values will gradually decrease today which would support a wind damage and hail threat over a tornado threat.

Main question is how will the storms evolve today. Meso scale models show a line of storms…possibly a bow echo moving across N TX, but push a much slower moving and broken line of storms into the northern portions of SE TX this afternoon. This follows the line of thinking of the HRRR and TX TECH WRF while the WRF blasts a complex through the entire area. Looks like the HRRR and TX TECH WRF are in some decent agreement with a broken line slowing across SE TX this afternoon and evening. Not overly confident this solution is correct, but think it is the best at the moment.

Expect a broken line of thunderstorms…some severe…to move into NW SE TX this afternoon and then slow as the outflow boundary gradually becomes WSW to ENE over SE TX and best track of upper disturbance heads more NE. This solution is certainly more of a flood threat than a severe weather threat with storms possibly slowing and then training over the area into the evening hours. With little development south of SE TX over the Gulf…moist low level inflow will continue to pump moisture into this line.

Flash Flood Watch has been extended to include all of SE TX. Feel the best rainfall and flooding threat will be north of I-10, but can’t rule out any portion of the area. With grounds saturated and rivers at or above flood stage additional rainfall is only going to worsen flooding problems.

Will update as trends become clearer today.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Updated at 7:35AM:

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