May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

Mon May 25, 2015 8:58 am

redneckweather wrote:Storms starting to fire up from Big Spring and clear down to Laredo and pushing eastward. Looks like it could be a pretty line that will be marching eastward.

Tornado Watch coming for all of S Central Texas.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   TORNADO WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ATASCOSA             BANDERA             BASTROP             
   BEXAR                BLANCO              BURNET              
   CALDWELL             COMAL               DEWITT              
   DIMMIT               EDWARDS             FAYETTE             
   FRIO                 GILLESPIE           GONZALES            
   GUADALUPE            HAYS                KARNES              
   KENDALL              KERR                KINNEY              
   LAVACA               LEE                 LLANO               
   MAVERICK             MEDINA              REAL                
   TRAVIS               UVALDE              VAL VERDE           
   WILLIAMSON           WILSON              ZAVALA              


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

Mon May 25, 2015 9:17 am

: 05252015 mcd0126.gif (11.43 KiB) Viewed 3659 times

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0126
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1004 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251404Z - 251904Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND ADDITIONAL ANALYSES SHOW THE EARLY STAGES
OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS FORMING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COMPACT AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE
INTEGRATED MOISTURE VALUES ARE ONLY MODEST...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP/STRONG ASCENT ARE SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEARING 2 INCHES...WHICH IF SUSTAINED IS
SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED LOCAL FFG VALUES.

THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL AND 00Z NAM CONUS NEST BEST ALIGN WITH THE
OBSERVED RADAR PATTERN AT FORECAST ISSUANCE AND THUS WERE USED TO
EXTRAPOLATE THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES TO GROW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR RATES TO EXCEED GUIDANCE WILL BE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE MESOLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG BUT
MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35 THROUGH 18-19Z. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA WILL BE NORTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...WHERE SUPERCELLS
IN A VERY HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE SOME EXTREME RAINFALL
RATES.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

Mon May 25, 2015 9:31 am

Please be weather aware this afternoon. If you have friends and family in NTX make sure they are aware of severe weather potential.

Mon May 25, 2015 9:32 am

The first Tornado Watch of the day for Central TX and more to come.

Mon May 25, 2015 9:33 am

From where the convection is firing up and from the orientation of storm motion, it looks like Southeast Texas will miss it.

Mon May 25, 2015 9:34 am

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/25/15 1429Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15/13 1415Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:0911Z 1053Z
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT THROUGH 13Z
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP WATER...FOR INCREASED AREAL AND
AMOUNT RAINFALL WHERE IT IS NOT NEEDED...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...DOMINANT MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING
OUT OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO/S TEXAS/NE MEXICO AND FLOWING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND NW FROM NE MEXICO INTO S CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTH OF
BAJA THAT CAN BE ADDING MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS AFTER COMING OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THEN COMBINING WITH GULF/S TX/NE MEXICO MOISTURE
TO FLOW NORTH AND NW IN AN AREA THAT CAN NOT HANDLE ANYMORE RAINFALL.
AND IF THAT WAS NOT ENOUGH...VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL VORT
PUSHING THROUGH SW AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WAS PUSHING EAST AND ALLOWING
STRONG FORCING TO ACT ON THAT INCREASINGLY HIGH MOISTURE...SO FAR ONLY
GETTING INTO THE MODERATE MOISTURE PLUME'S WEST EXTENT..BUT WAIT TILL
IT GETS FURTHER EAST INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AS THE 1.85" VALUES OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AS PER LATEST GPS AND 1.6" VALUES
IN S CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO TO FLOW NORTH AND INCREASE PW MOISTURE
IN THE SAY DALLAS AREA FROM THEIR CURRENT 1" OR SLIGHTLY LESS VALUES.
WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE FORCING SET..FOLLOWING TWO SPEPARATE
AREAS THAT MAY TRY TO COMBINE OR MERGE IF WESTERN TEXAS ACTION CAN
SPEED UP. WESTERN TEXAS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION BUT ALSO BE PUSHED EAST PRETTY QUICKLY BY SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM MORE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COMPLEX MAY ALSO FEED IN SOME ADDED MOISTURE TO WEST CENTRAL
COMPLEX WITH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DEVELOPING COMPLEX MERGED BAND OR BRIEF
TRAINING GIVING HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTERED ON MITCHEL COUNTY RECENTLY FOR
1-2 INCH RATES PER HR BUT CONTINUING TO MOVE. SOUTHERN SMALLER COMPLEX
AND A LITTLE CLOSER TO HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS EDWARD TO KERR TO
GILLESPIE COUNTY WITH SOME WEAK TRAINING CELLS AND MORE ORGANIZATION
IN THE PAST HR MEAN MORE CHANCE OF TRAINING FOR LONGEVITY OF HVY RAIN
BURST AND INCREASED FF. CAN NOT BE UNDERSTATED THAT MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NW AND NORTH...SO THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE MAKING THE
MOST OF DEEPENING MOISTURE THAT IS RETURNING FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL
JUST ADD MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THEIR INITIAL HVY RAIN BURSTS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1430-1730Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK..WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH AND NW
THROUGH TEXAS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING EAST..BOTH ANOMALOUS
AND CLASHING WITH EACH OTHER ON ALREADY VERY WET SOIL...AREA OF
MOST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOM GREEN TO KENT ON WEST END TO
THROCKMORTON/SHACKELFORD TO RUNNELS ON EAST END AND WITH SOUTHERN COMPLEX
REAL TO GILLESPIE TO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AREA BETWEEN THE TWO COMPLEXES FOR ANY FILLING IN OF CONVECTION AND ANY
POSSIBLE MERGERS...BUT THAT RATES AT LEAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS ONE IN FIVE
WITH MORE OF CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM SOUTHERN COMPLEX WILL DIRECT MORE
EFFICIENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO NORTHERN COMPLEX. ALSO SEE LATEST NCEP WPC
METWATCH AND EXCESSIVE DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

Mon May 25, 2015 9:40 am

Rapid Scan floater activated for Texas...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templat ... peed_ms=80

Mon May 25, 2015 9:46 am

Time to head out on the bikes for a 4-5 hour ride. We should beat the storms back to the house. It's handy to have a radar in my pocket while riding (phone).

Mon May 25, 2015 10:15 am

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch until 400pm for a large part of SW and central TX.

Air mass continues to destabilize with favorable low level warm advection regime in place. Numerous thunderstorms some with rotation have developed from near San Angelo to north of Laredo and with continued heating the air mass will only become more unstable.

Large bow echo appears in formative stage near/west of Abilene TX and will move ESE toward N TX and possibly the northern portions of SE TX later this afternoon. Concern remains for a gradual decrease in severe weather threat with time and increase in the heavy rainfall/flood threat as the approaching lines slow and possibly train for a period this afternoon and evening.

Extrapolation of current movement places storms into SE TX by 200-300pm and toward I-45 by 400-700pm. Air mass will be most unstable at this time period also.

Tornado Watch Outline

Mon May 25, 2015 10:27 am

there was a deadly tornado across the border from Del Rio, TX already this am

http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2015/05/25/1025896

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... a-31289328

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0Q-1-200

Mon May 25, 2015 10:31 am

Central and North Texas are going to get it today.

Houston area might get a glancing blow where we don't really need it on the north side.

Mon May 25, 2015 10:38 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX. EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND. THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

Mon May 25, 2015 10:52 am

Sadly, it's now confirmed that 12 people are missing from the Wimberly area, per the Austin American Statesman. And that number could rise even more.

http://www.statesman.com/news/news/loca ... ley/nmNRz/

People all over TX and OK need to be very careful over the next few days.

Mon May 25, 2015 10:55 am

New Tornado Watch issued for N Central Texas and portions of Oklahoma until 6:00 PM CDT.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   TORNADO WATCH 211 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   
   .    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   CARTER               COMANCHE            COTTON              
   GARVIN               JACKSON             JEFFERSON           
   JOHNSTON             LOVE                MARSHALL            
   MURRAY               PONTOTOC            STEPHENS            
   TILLMAN              

   .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ARCHER               BAYLOR              BELL                
   BOSQUE               BROWN               CALLAHAN            
   CLAY                 COLEMAN             COLLIN              
   COMANCHE             CONCHO              COOKE               
   CORYELL              DALLAS              DENTON              
   EASTLAND             ELLIS               ERATH               
   FALLS                FOARD               GRAYSON             
   HAMILTON             HARDEMAN            HASKELL             
   HILL                 HOOD                JACK                
   JOHNSON              JONES               KAUFMAN             
   KIMBLE               KNOX                LAMPASAS            
   LIMESTONE            MASON               MCCULLOCH           
   MCLENNAN             MENARD              MILAM               
   MILLS                MONTAGUE            NAVARRO             
   PALO PINTO           PARKER              ROBERTSON           
   ROCKWALL             RUNNELS             SAN SABA            
   SCHLEICHER           SHACKELFORD         SOMERVELL           
   STEPHENS             SUTTON              TARRANT             
   TAYLOR               THROCKMORTON        TOM GREEN           
   WICHITA              WILBARGER           WISE                
   YOUNG                


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...

Mon May 25, 2015 11:09 am

Morning Update from HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OFF THE MORNING W/ RELATIVELY DRY IN IN PLACE...BUT BASED
ON UPPER AIR/SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS THAT SHOULD BE CHANGING THIS
AFTN. LLVL JET WILL BE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (1.8-2" PW`S) BACK INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE NOW BEING MET AND ANTICIPATE SOME SCT POPCORN ACTIVITY
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SHORTLY.

2 AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY & TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CRP MOVING NE. THIS IS HEADED
TO AN AREA WHERE READINGS SUN IS SHINING AND READINGS ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 80S. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LI`S AROUND -7 TO -9
NORTH IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA ALONG W/ WITH CAPES 3-5K J/KG.
THINK WE`LL SEE A PRETTY GOOD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN W/
HEATING, INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE.

THE PRIMARY S/W & CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS HEADED TOWARD N CNTL TX.
EXACTLY HOW THIS IMPACTS SE TX REMAINS TO BE SEEN & LIKELY
DEPENDS ON IF AND HOW STABILIZED ATMOS BECOMES W/ EARLY AFTN
CONVECTION. STILL A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PRIMARY S/W CAUSES N PARTS OF SE TX SOME ISSUES HEADED
INTO THE EVNG HOURS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. FF THREAT STILL POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
HIGHLY DEPENDENT AS TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS STUFF MOVES OUT OF
HERE. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES - BUT HOPING FOR THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL AS OF
LATE. 47

Mon May 25, 2015 11:34 am

Storms developing down near Corpus Christi will need to be monitored as the day wears on. There is a chance we may see all the convection congeal into a very strong squall line or possibly a derecho like convective system later this afternoon into the evening hours.

Mon May 25, 2015 11:42 am

I was just noticing that area near Corpus Christi.

Mon May 25, 2015 11:43 am

The Storm Predication Center Updated Convective Outlook maintains a Moderate Risk for Severe Storms across portions of N, NE, E Texas and SE Oklahoma. The hail threat has shifted a bit further S into the Hill Country and the primary threats remain large hail and damaging winds and an isolated Tornado or two.

Mon May 25, 2015 11:45 am

: 05252015 mcd0762.gif (10.45 KiB) Viewed 3442 times

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251637Z - 251830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WW 210 INTO ONGOING
WATCHES TO THE N. MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO
THE S OF THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS -- ACROSS THE GILLESPIE/KERR/BANDERA
COUNTY VICINITY. WITH A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE AND SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV IMAGERY...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
-- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

Mon May 25, 2015 12:35 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1233 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKY HILL...OR NEAR FREDERICKSBURG...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
STONEWALL AND LBJ STATE PARK AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
WILLOW CITY AROUND 1255 PM CDT.

May 2015 Record Setting May Rainfall Totals For Region

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