2015 Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

Sat May 23, 2015 8:40 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 1600 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has
also changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
so while the low remains stationary. After that time, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

3. An area of low pressure may form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Beven

Mon May 25, 2015 11:20 am

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise an early season Tropical Cyclone developing just West of the Pacific Coast of Mexico later this week.

Mon May 25, 2015 2:06 pm

the 12Z Euro suggests a Tropical Cyclone will be nearing Cabo San Lucas next weekend.

Wed May 27, 2015 7:10 am

05272015 5 AM PDT two_pac_5d0.png

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Roberts/Brown

Wed May 27, 2015 8:34 am

INVEST 92E has been designated for the tropical disturbance we have been following via the guidance over the past week several hundred miles W of the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

Wed May 27, 2015 10:15 pm

We have a new area to monitor in the EPAC. The global guidance has been suggesting a second disturbance developing closer to the West Coast of Mexico. Time will tell, but seeing lowing pressures across the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf in the medium to long range raise an eyebrow. It's about time for that pesky monsoonal trough to lift N.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake

Thu May 28, 2015 5:38 am

There we go for the EPAC Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory. Forecast to become the first 2015 EPAC hurricane by Saturday.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today. The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Thu May 28, 2015 10:56 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Thu May 28, 2015 6:56 pm

TS Andre in the EPAC now up to 60MPH. Looking good on satellite this evening forming an eye on the way to a hurricane.

Sat May 30, 2015 9:28 am

Hurricane Andres continues to spin and strengthen harmlessly well offshore of Western Mexico while a new area of disturbed weather festers closer the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

The attachment 05302015 _1400_goes15_x_vis2km_01EANDRES_85kts-973mb-142N-1156W_97pc.jpg is no longer available

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Andres, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A small area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a weak area of
low pressure. Currently, strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres are inhibiting the development of this low.
However, these winds are forecast to weaken by Monday and the
formation of a tropical cyclone is highly likely by the middle of
next week as the system drifts west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Avila

Sun May 31, 2015 9:58 am

Hurricane Andres has likely peaked in its intensity and should begin to weaken throughout the coming week as it moves generally West away from Mexico. Eyes turn to 93E which is much closer to the Pacific Coast of Mexico and is expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone later this week. There are some worrisome trends via the Global operational and ensemble guidance suggesting a deepening Western trough begins to organize later this coming work week into next weekend and could influence the eventual path of 93E and pull it and its moisture across Mexico and possibly Texas late next weekend into the second week of June.

Sun May 31, 2015 5:35 pm

Tropical Depression 2E has formed off the Pacific Coast of Mexico:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

Visible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep
convection has developed over the center of the well-defined low
pressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Therefore the
system qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being
initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is 300/05. The depression is located
in a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short
term for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to
northwestward through Monday. In 36-48 hours, a mid-level
ridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward
motion for a day or so. After that time, global models show
stronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the
south-central United States, which should result in a faster
west-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the
forecast period.

Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the
outflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant
intensification during the next day or two. After that time, the
shear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease
substantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist
environment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C. These
factors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps
greater than what is currently forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the
most strengthening of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Pasch

Mon Jun 01, 2015 6:07 am

TD 2E continues to fester offshore of Mexico and could become Tropical Storm Blanca later today.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

The tropical depression is producing a large area of deep convection
with very cold cloud tops, however, the convection does not appear
to have become significantly better organized overnight. Satellite
intensity estimates are T2.0 on the Dvorak scale and the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt. The strong northwesterly shear that is
currently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to decrease
significantly during the next 12 to 24 hours. This should allow
the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm later today.
By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to be within a low shear
environment and over very warm waters. These conditions favor a
faster rate of intensification and the NHC forecast follows the
SHIPS guidance, which calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
in about 48 hours, and obtain major hurricane status in 3 to 4
days. The intensity forecast is also supported by the global
model guidance, which significantly deepen the cyclone in 2 to 3
days.

The center has been extremely difficult to locate overnight,
so the initial motion of 305/5 is much more uncertain than normal.
Overall, little motion is forecast during the next few days
while the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow. After
72 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over northern
Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to begin moving northwestward
at a faster forward speed. The NHC forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus and the GFS ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.3N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.7N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.4N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 13.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 106.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:49 am

Tropical Storm Blanca forms off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. It is expected to achieve Major Hurricane Status.

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

The convective pattern of the cyclone features a developing central
dense overcast and an expansive convective band to the east and
southeast of the center. Based on the latest Dvorak classification
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, the cyclone is upgraded to Tropical Storm
Blanca on this advisory. The SHIPS model and satellite analysis
from UW-CIMSS show about 20 kt of shear currently affecting Blanca.
However, the models show the shear quickly relaxing during the next
12 to 24 hours, which should allow Blanca to take advantage of an
otherwise favorable environment. As a result, steady if not rapid
intensification is expected to begin soon. In fact, the SHIPS RI
index shows a 74 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24
hours. The official forecast follows this trend and shows a quicker
rate of intensification than the previous one through 48 hours.
Additional strengthening is expected later in the forecast period.
The new NHC forecast is close to the more aggressive SHIPS model and
is well above the IVCN intensity consensus.

Microwave imagery from AMSR2 on GCOM-W1 at 0743Z and from the GPM
satellite at 1031Z were helpful in establishing the initial
position, which is just a little to the right of the previous
advisory. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A slow
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected today,
followed by a slow erratic motion through 72 hours as the steering
flow weakens. Late in the period, a ridge will amplify over
northern Mexico which should result in a steadier motion toward the
northwest at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track is a little to the
right of the previous one after an adjustment toward the latest TVCE
multi-model consensus.

Blanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico through the forecast period. However, some rainbands on
the outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the
coast during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.5N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 13.8N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.6N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.5N 107.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:12 pm

Blanca on its way to becoming a Hurricane and possibly a Major Hurricane with rapid intensification possible beginning tomorrow.

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

Blanca continues to gradually organize, and satellite imagery shows
a developing CDO and numerous banding features. The initial
intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT-B
pass and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Steady if not rapid intensification is expected during the next
couple of days while the shear is forecast to decrease over the
cyclone. In fact the SHIPS RI index has the highest probabilities
that I've seen, including an almost 90 percent chance of a 40-kt
increase in 24 hours. However, the regional hurricane models
continue to be much less bullish. The NHC official forecast
continues to be closest to the SHIPS model and shows Blanca becoming
a hurricane on Tuesday and nearing major hurricane intensity in 48
hours. It is possible that the rate of intensification could be even
faster than indicated here. Some weakening is expected by day 5 as
the cyclone begins to encounter cooler waters accompanied by an
increase in shear.

Blanca may have drifted a bit eastward over the past few hours, but
the initial motion estimate is stationary. Little net motion is
forecast during the next 72 hours while the steering currents remain
weak. At days 4 and 5 a northwestward track is expected to begin as
a ridge builds to the northeast of Blanca over northern Mexico. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one during the
first 72 hours and has been adjusted eastward at days 4-5 following
the trend of the latest multi-model consensus.

Blanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico through the forecast period. However, some rainbands on
the outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the
coast during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.3N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.1N 104.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 12.8N 104.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 13.2N 105.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Mon Jun 01, 2015 9:59 pm

Intensity forecast continues to ramp up for Blanca.

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

Blanca is gradually intensifying. Satellite imagery shows the
cyclone maintaining a small CDO dominated by very cold-topped deep
convection, with a vigorous primary band over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Microwave satellite data, however,
indicate that Blanca's developing inner core currently lacks much
organization. Regardless, anticyclonic flow over Blanca is also
expanding and becoming better established, indicative of a
continued decrease in shear. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates
is used to set the initial intensity to 45 kt.

Blanca has been meandering southward, but the overall motion is
essentially stationary. The cyclone should remain trapped in a
col area during the next 36 hours, but there should be just enough
northerly or north-northwesterly flow to nudge the center of Blanca
on a general southerly course. By 72 hours, the synoptic steering
over the eastern Pacific should change as an unusually deep longwave
trough settles into southern California and weak mid-level ridging
near Baja California shifts eastward and strengthens. This pattern
should cause Blanca to accelerate on a heading between northwest and
north-northwest beginning on Thursday. Only small adjustments were
made to the NHC track forecast during the first 36-48 hours, but
the track has been shifted to the right of the previous one between
72-120 hours, which is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE).

Northwesterly shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease
considerably within 24 hours and remain low for a couple of days
after that, while thermodynamic parameters in the near-storm
environment should be exceptionally conducive for rapid
intensification. An eastward-traveling upper-level shortwave trough
moving through Mexico in 48-72 hours could also enhance Blanca's
outflow, increasing the likelihood of a significant deepening during
this time. Late in the forecast period, east-southeasterly shear
and cooler waters should result in weakening, especially by day 5.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased above the previous one and
is closest to the FSU Superensemble and SHIPS model output, and well
above the weaker regional model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.2N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 104.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 12.9N 104.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 12.7N 104.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 12.7N 104.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.5N 105.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 16.9N 107.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 20.1N 108.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:34 pm

I would not be surprised if Blanca is a Category 5 hurricane. It could have an impact on Texas weather with the forecasted path.

Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:18 am

First visible imagery of the day clearly shows a well developed CDO (Central Dense Overcast) over the center of Blanca with very cold cloud tops. Blanca looks well on its way to becoming a Hurricane before the day is over off the Pacific Coast of Mexico. The latest guidance brings the center very close to Los Cabos at the Southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, but cooler waters along the Western Coast of the Baja should allow Blanca to weaken as it moves generally N. If the eventual track were to shift a bit right into the Sea of Cortez, water temperatures are much warmer but it remains to be seen exactly where the cyclone will track.

Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:43 pm

Blanca becomes the second Hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Blanca could become a powerful CAT 4 Hurricane and then weakening as it nears Los Cabos and the Baja Peninsula.
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of
an eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was
evident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane
for this advisory. Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12
hours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable
environment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity
forecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should
support rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major
hurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days,
and this could be conservative. After 72 hours, the cyclone should
begin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear
increases. The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models
through the period.

The tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is
expected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak.
After that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of
Blanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3,
with the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4
and 5. The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day
5. The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the
right, showing a track into the Gulf of California. On the other
side of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much
slower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca
southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very
close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Note that it is too soon
to determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California
peninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in
the east Pacific.

Blanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the
eastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:49 am

Hurricane Blanca undergoing RI in the EPAC. Its now at 110MPH and forecast to reach 150g180MPH before it weakens to a strong TS and approaches southern Baja CA.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

...BLANCA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 445 MI...710 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Blanca.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 104.7 West. Blanca is nearly
stationary and is expected to move very little through tonight.
The hurricane is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northwest
on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is forecast to continue, and Blanca is expected to
become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca will begin affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2015 Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

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