2015 Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

[srainhoutx]

As we approach the beginning of the 2015 Eastern Pacific Tropical Season that begins May 15th, we will begin watching for any potential tropical development in what may be a very active season for this Basin. Here are the names for the upcoming Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.


2015
Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

Interestingly, the GFS is developing a rather strong Tropical Cyclone as we begin May. While it is way too soon to expect any potential tropical development in the longer range, perhaps it is a harbinger of things to come and as we know, Eastern Pacific Tropical systems can impact our sensible weather across our Region.

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[srainhoutx]

Gale Warnings are in affect along the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a weak low pressure area associated with a dying frontal boundary is draped across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The monsoonal trough further South remains rather active with pulsing moderate to strong convection and this area may need to be monitored in the coming days for possible early season tropical development.

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas of disturbed weather well West of the Pacific Coast of Mexico for potential tropical development.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
currently not conducive for development of this system. However,
they are expected to become conducive for some slow development
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
couple of days well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of the system over the weekend
while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Beven



The computer guidance has been advertising a potential tropical cyclone developing closer to Mexico in the extended range for several days and that trend continues this morning. There is growing concern that the monsoonal trough will begin to lift N and separate from the ITCZ in the next week and typically we can begin to see tropical development in this Region based upon climatology. It is noteworthy that portions of Mexico have been very wet much like Texas and Oklahoma this year to date and with El Nino showing signs of being rather strong, we will need to closely monitor the Eastern Pacific throughout the summer and into fall as tropical cyclones begin to recurve toward Mexico and spread their mid/upper level moisture across the Desert SW and Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to suggest a weak tropical disturbance may spin up near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific fairly close to the Pacific Coast of Mexico. The GFS is also suggesting upper level winds are not conducive for developing a strong tropical system, but things can change and it is getting close to that time of year when our attention turns to the Tropics. The GFS also has a slow easterly TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) low nearing the Bahamas. Sometimes the GFS as well as the other guidance has a very tough time in the medium/extended range 'sniffing' which Basin (EPAC/NATL) these spurious lows may form along the monsoonal trough.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z European computer model is onboard with developing a much stronger tropical system in the extended range near the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

Two areas of disturbed weather continued to be monitored for tropical development between Hawaii and Mexico in the Eastern Pacific this morning. Also the overnight medium to extended range guidance continues to advertise potential tropical development later next week near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for development of
this system during the next several days while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California has become more concentrated this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while the low moves slowly northwestward. After that time,
development is less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven

[srainhoutx]

INVEST 90E has been designated for an area of disturbed weather mid way between Mexico and Hawaii in the Eastern Pacific.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to indicate the potential of rather strong tropical cyclone making an approach on Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California has become a little better organized this
morning. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system during the next three to four days while
it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California has also become better organized this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
while the low moves slowly northwestward. After that time,
development is less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Beven

[addseo1115]

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[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 1600 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has
also changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
so while the low remains stationary. After that time, development
is not expected due to the proximity of the disturbance to its
northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

3. An area of low pressure may form early next week several hundred
miles south of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent slow development of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Beven

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise an early season Tropical Cyclone developing just West of the Pacific Coast of Mexico later this week.

[srainhoutx]

the 12Z Euro suggests a Tropical Cyclone will be nearing Cabo San Lucas next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

05272015 5 AM PDT two_pac_5d0.png

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Mexico have become better organized. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Roberts/Brown

[srainhoutx]

INVEST 92E has been designated for the tropical disturbance we have been following via the guidance over the past week several hundred miles W of the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

We have a new area to monitor in the EPAC. The global guidance has been suggesting a second disturbance developing closer to the West Coast of Mexico. Time will tell, but seeing lowing pressures across the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf in the medium to long range raise an eyebrow. It's about time for that pesky monsoonal trough to lift N.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.
Environment conditions could become more favorable for some
development of this system by the weekend while it moves slowly to
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake

[Katdaddy]

There we go for the EPAC Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory. Forecast to become the first 2015 EPAC hurricane by Saturday.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today. The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Katdaddy]

TS Andre in the EPAC now up to 60MPH. Looking good on satellite this evening forming an eye on the way to a hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Andres continues to spin and strengthen harmlessly well offshore of Western Mexico while a new area of disturbed weather festers closer the Pacific Coast of Mexico.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Andres, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A small area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a weak area of
low pressure. Currently, strong upper-level winds associated with
Hurricane Andres are inhibiting the development of this low.
However, these winds are forecast to weaken by Monday and the
formation of a tropical cyclone is highly likely by the middle of
next week as the system drifts west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Avila