2015 Hurricane Season Outlook

[wxman57]

The March ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. I can't post the images yet as they're only released for those who pay for the ECMWF. Public images will be available around the 22nd of the month. Last year, the Euro predicted ACE of around 70 and that was pretty close. This year it's predicting ACE near 50. A total of 7 named storms with 4 hurricanes for 2015. Very dry across the Caribbean and MDR. Very high pressures across the deep tropics. Oh, and El Nino, too.

I've been conversing with Phil Klotzbach over the past few weeks and he's seeing the same thing that I am - generally unfavorable conditions (again) across the Atlantic Basin this season. We've been debating whether or not the Atlantic has shifted from warm-phase to cold-phase Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It's definitely cool out there now, but is this just a temporary "blip" or has the Atlantic switched to a less active cycle?

Even if the Atlantic has switched to a less active cycle, there is still a hurricane risk. The last cool phase was from 1970-1994. Quite a few strong hurricanes struck the U.S. during that cool phase:

1970 - Cat 3 Celia hit the Texas coast
1972 - Agnes hit the FL panhandle then caused extensive flooding all up the East U.S. Coast
1974 - Cat 3 Carmen hit the mid LA coast
1975 - Cat 3 Eloise struck the FL Panhandle
1979 - Cat 4 Frederic struck the MS/AL border area and David grazed eastern Florida as a Cat 2 then hit Georgia
1980 - Allen, a HUGE Cat 5 multiple times struck the lower TX coast as a rapidly weakening Cat 3.
1983 - Cat 3 Alicia hit Galveston
1985 - Cat 3 Elena struck the mid Gulf coast
1988 - Cat 5 Gilbert struck the northern Yucatan - the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record
1989 - Cat 4 Hugo struck the Carolinas
1991 - Cat 2 Bob struck New England
1992 - Cat 5 Andrew hit Florida and then LA as a Cat 3

[sambucol]

That's great news if it's not going to be an active year here!

[Texaspirate11]

1980 and 1983 we also saw wintry mix in our area.
I'm not letting my guard down this year.

[wxman57]

Just because the forecast may be for a relatively quiet year, it doesn't mean any one location is in the clear. The Gulf of Mexico may be one region that is close to normal in terms of development potential.

[Texaspirate11]

Just because the forecast may be for a relatively quiet year, it doesn't mean any one location is in the clear. The Gulf of Mexico may be one region that is close to normal in terms of development potential.

agree and thank you wxman57 for the update.

[Ptarmigan]

The March ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. I can't post the images yet as they're only released for those who pay for the ECMWF. Public images will be available around the 22nd of the month. Last year, the Euro predicted ACE of around 70 and that was pretty close. This year it's predicting ACE near 50. A total of 7 named storms with 4 hurricanes for 2015. Very dry across the Caribbean and MDR. Very high pressures across the deep tropics. Oh, and El Nino, too.

I've been conversing with Phil Klotzbach over the past few weeks and he's seeing the same thing that I am - generally unfavorable conditions (again) across the Atlantic Basin this season. We've been debating whether or not the Atlantic has shifted from warm-phase to cold-phase Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It's definitely cool out there now, but is this just a temporary "blip" or has the Atlantic switched to a less active cycle?

Even if the Atlantic has switched to a less active cycle, there is still a hurricane risk. The last cool phase was from 1970-1994. Quite a few strong hurricanes struck the U.S. during that cool phase:

1970 - Cat 3 Celia hit the Texas coast
1972 - Agnes hit the FL panhandle then caused extensive flooding all up the East U.S. Coast
1974 - Cat 3 Carmen hit the mid LA coast
1975 - Cat 3 Eloise struck the FL Panhandle
1979 - Cat 4 Frederic struck the MS/AL border area and David grazed eastern Florida as a Cat 2 then hit Georgia
1980 - Allen, a HUGE Cat 5 multiple times struck the lower TX coast as a rapidly weakening Cat 3.
1983 - Cat 3 Alicia hit Galveston
1985 - Cat 3 Elena struck the mid Gulf coast
1988 - Cat 5 Gilbert struck the northern Yucatan - the second strongest Atlantic hurricane on record
1989 - Cat 4 Hugo struck the Carolinas
1991 - Cat 2 Bob struck New England
1992 - Cat 5 Andrew hit Florida and then LA as a Cat 3

We are in 2015 and even in less active cycles, years that ended in 5 were bad like 1975 and 1985.

[wxman57]

We are in 2015 and even in less active cycles, years that ended in 5 were bad like 1975 and 1985.

And there was 1995 (Cat 3 Opal hit FL Panhandle). Finally, some of you might remember 2005...

Looking back a bit, there was 1965 (Hurricane Betsy hit Florida & Louisiana). In 1955, hurricanes Connie, Diane and Ione struck the East U.S. Coast. In 1945, major hurricanes struck south Florida and Texas. Or course, there was the great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.

1925 was quiet, but major hurricanes struck Galveston & SE Louisiana in 1915.

Every season ending in 5 since 1915 has featured significant U.S. hurricane impacts with the exception of 1925. Will that trend continue for 2015?

[sambucol]

But we will still be in a low activity cycle this year like Wxman said. That's great news! And even though years ending in the number 5 had some big storms doesn't mean they would hit the upper Texas coast this year. It sounds like our odds of missing a hurricane are pretty good this year!

[wxman57]

But we will still be in a low activity cycle this year like Wxman said. That's great news! And even though years ending in the number 5 had some big storms doesn't mean they would hit the upper Texas coast this year. It sounds like our odds of missing a hurricane are pretty good this year!

I wouldn't count on that, sambucol. Some of those significant impact years were "quiet" with respect to the total numbers of storms. There were only 7 named storms in 1965, for example. You need to prepare for an expected "quiet" year the same as for any other year. There's always a chance of being impacted. 1983 was very quiet - only 4 named storms. Cat 3 Alicia hit Houston...

[srainhoutx]

I will add there is still some uncertainty regarding where this El Nino pattern will actually develop. If we see an El Nino Madoki (Central Pacific ~vs~ Eastern Pacific) such as 2004, The Gulf could be active including Florida. There are far too many variables to consider before calling for a quiet Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season at this range. Thanks wxman57 for beginning this Topic and discussion. It is never too early to begin thinking about what we need to do regarding planning for a tropical cyclone across the Gulf Coast Region.

[sambucol]

Right now it looks to be a slow season, and I'm really hoping it is. The past few seasons, it seems it's been very difficult for anything to develop, and nothing like Ike has ventured in our direction since 2008. Wxman has always been right on calling it during hurricane season. I'm still glad to hear he thinks it will be slow from what he's deducing right now!! My home was damaged from Ike and then burned in 2011. I don't want to have anymore damage and that's why I'm ecstatic at the probable slow season for us on the upper Texas coast!

[srainhoutx]

Sea Surface Temperature anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico, NW Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean near Florida and the Bahamas continue to increase. While it appears the MDR (Main Development Region) could be very hostile for tropical development this season, closer to home across the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic near the Bahamas could offer conditions a bit more conducive for tropical development.

[wxman57]

Klotzbach and Gray are going with 7 named storms, of which 3 would be hurricanes and 1 category 3 or higher. Yep, a very active season when compared to 1983 (4/3/1- including Alicia).

[Paul Robison]

Klotzbach and Gray are going with 7 named storms, of which 3 would be hurricanes and 1 category 3 or higher. Yep, a very active season when compared to 1983 (4/3/1- including Alicia).

What, if anything, does this mean for Houston?

[Texaspirate11]

Paul
No one knows exactly WHERE a hurricane will hit - it just means that for now, 7/3/1 is what they are forecasting.
It really doesn't matter the number, because it only takes one. We should always be prepared throughout the season, anyway.

[srainhoutx]

"The Hurricanes: Science and Society" team at the University of Rhode Island's Graduate School of Oceanography is again partnering with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) to offer free one-hour hurricane preparedness webinars to 5th grade classes beginning April 21st.

These regional webinars are designed to raise awareness about hurricanes as the season quickly approaches. Students will hear from NHC scientists as well as AOC personnel who fly into hurricanes. A presentation on region-specific hurricane science & preparedness will be given with interactive questions to prompt student responses.


Schools/classes wanting to participate MUST REGISTER in advance at http://www.hurricanescience.org/webinar
Here is the link for more information:
http://www.hurricanescience.org/resources/nhc5grade/

04132015 NHC US-Map1-color-crop_5001.png (25.86 KiB) Viewed 5243 times

[srainhoutx]

As we get closer to the beginning of Tropical Season across the North Atlantic Basin, it is interesting to see some of the very long range computer guidance suggesting that wind shear north (indicated by the blue shades) of the Deep Tropics where we watch tropical waves move across Africa and the Atlantic Ocean is not hostile for tropical storms regarding wind shear. In fact the latest update from the CFSv2 dated April 14th suggests N of 20 degrees may have below normal wind shear values where we live while the deep tropics is very hostile regarding wind shear (indicated by the red and brown shades). Some will ask what is wind shear? Wind shear is basically strong to very strong upper level winds that blow the tops of rising convection that is necessary to develop a tropical cyclone. This is one of the reason among many other conditions that was discussed at the National Tropical Weather Conference this past week. Dr. Philip Klotzbach as well as other experts that look at the data were VERY cautious when discussing the upcoming tropical season. While Dr. Klotzbach is predicting a below average season, he importantly pointed out that the Gulf of Mexico is in its own world and often is not affected by El Nino. As we are currently witnessing, strong areas of organized convection is exiting off the Gulf Coast of Mexico extending N into S Texas and it is this type of pattern in a low wind shear environment that can spin up an area of surface low pressure that organizes into a tropical system and sometimes very quickly in a low wind shear environment.

[rnmm]

Thank you all for the updates. I agree that we all need to be prepared. I am with the bandwagon of "I am not letting my guard down".

[Paul Robison]

[quote="srainhoutx"]As we get closer to the beginning of Tropical Season across the North Atlantic Basin, it is interesting to see some of the very long range computer guidance suggesting that wind shear north (indicated by the blue shades) of the Deep Tropics where we watch tropical waves move across Africa and the Atlantic Ocean is not hostile for tropical storms regarding wind shear. In fact the latest update from the CFSv2 dated April 14th suggests N of 20 degrees may have below normal wind shear values where we live while the deep tropics is very hostile regarding wind shear (indicated by the red and brown shades). Some will ask what is wind shear? Wind shear is basically strong to very strong upper level winds that blow the tops of rising convection that is necessary to develop a tropical cyclone. This is one of the reason among many other conditions that was discussed at the National Tropical Weather Conference this past week. Dr. Philip Klotzbach as well as other experts that look at the data were VERY cautious when discussing the upcoming tropical season. While Dr. Klotzbach is predicting a below average season, he importantly pointed out that the Gulf of Mexico is in its own world and often is not affected by El Nino. As we are currently witnessing, strong areas of organized convection is exiting off the Gulf Coast of Mexico extending N into S Texas and it is this type of pattern in a low wind shear environment that can spin up an area of surface low pressure that organizes into a tropical system and sometimes very quickly in a low wind shear environment.

Deja vu 2005 hurricane season?



Note that I'm talking about a season that spawned a hurricane that actually did clip SE TX. If you're right, the upper TX coast might see it's first major hurricane strike since hurricane Ike. Is that what you're getting at?

[GBinGrimes]

The only thing he's getting at is the outlook for this upcoming hurricane season. There's nothing hidden in between the lines or in the graphs.