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Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 3:11 pm
by Ptarmigan
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Euro has trended 'wetter' and 'colder' as the shortwave (upper air disturbance) embedded in the mean cold upper trough lingers back to our W a bit longer. We will see, but somewhere across Texas/Louisiana on N and E may see a fairly good shot of seeing a wintry mix
if the trends continue.
02282015 12Z Euro f120.gif
Maybe Houston will see some winter weather........
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:42 pm
by Heat Miser
Ptarmigan wrote:
Maybe Houston will see some winter weather........
Probably not according to the local NWS office.
That window of opportunity is dwindling even more now as we head into March.
Temperatures Thursday morning
should reach freezing mainly for College Station over to
Huntsville. While precipitation should be ending there may be enough
moisture early Thursday morning for a wintry mix of precipitation for these
same areas. Precipitation chances should be ending through the morning so
do not expect there to be much of an impact. Still will mention to
keep people on their toes after a rapid increase in temperatures followed
by the cold front.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:19 pm
by jasons2k
Heat Miser wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:
Maybe Houston will see some winter weather........
Probably not according to the local NWS office.
Temperatures Thursday morning should reach freezing mainly for College Station over to
Huntsville.
Yeah, well they said something very similar 2X just in the last week, and we all saw how that worked out.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 6:48 pm
by Paul Robison
If thunderstorms erupt during the forecast period, how strong will they be? Curious, since that seems to be turning up in the AFDs
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:37 pm
by nuby3
They'd be pretty typical, Paul. Rain with some lightning and a few gusty breezes
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2015 10:38 pm
by Kludge
I just bought a 50 gallon drum of fly killer, so that we can keep them out of the ointment.
I also dispatched a memo to mr gore, asking that if the globe is warming, can it hurry the efff up and do so???!
I'm ready to close this winter chapter, and move on to some rumblin' storms and Spring gully washers.
Winter '14/15 over & out...
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:18 am
by jasons2k
Bah humbug! From the NWS:
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE CONTINUED YESTERDAY`S TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE...SO STAY TUNED.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:19 am
by cperk
jasons wrote:Bah humbug! From the NWS:
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE CONTINUED YESTERDAY`S TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE...SO STAY TUNED.
jasons (SO STAY TUNED)we're several days away from this event.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:24 am
by redneckweather
Boy howdy, ain't gonna lie. It looks like this front coming in next week is gonna have some elbows on it!
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:17 am
by srainhoutx
The 12Z GFS continues the trend seen yesterday via the Euro of a slower ejection of the upper air disturbance over Northern Mexico after the Arctic front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. This next front appears to have a punch with it and with upper energy associated with the upper trough hanging back to our West and SW, over running precipitation appears to be gaining some strength Wednesday night into at least early Thursday.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:47 am
by Ptarmigan
redneckweather wrote:Boy howdy, ain't gonna lie. It looks like this front coming in next week is gonna have some elbows on it!
A strong cold blast in March is rare.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:03 am
by srainhoutx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COASTAL LOW OFF MATAGORDA BAY ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO BOUNDARIES OF CONCERN. THE
FIRST HAS PUSHED MORE INLAND AND SEPARATES AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S FROM AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SECOND
BOUNDARY IS THE TRUE WARM FRONT WHICH SEPARATES THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S AS WELL. THE 12Z CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS CAPTURE THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASSES NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. ONE GLARING
DIFFERENCE IS THE CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND
CAP AT 700MB WHERE LCH DOES NOT. THIS MEANS LIFTING AN ELEVATED
PARCEL WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION AND REASON WHY THERE HAS BEEN
SOME ISO TSRA BETWEEN HOUSTON AND BEAUMONT. SUSPECT THE EML WILL
ADVECT OVER SE TX MORE IN THE COMING DAYS AND LIKELY BE A FACTOR
IN THE FORECAST WHEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT COMES WED. UNTIL THEN
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HOW/WHEN/WHERE WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH/STALLS AND THEN PUSHES NORTH AGAIN THROUGH TUE. TEMP
FORECAST WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING WERE FOR TEMP TRENDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
EARLY LOOK AT 12Z MODEL RUNS...NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH
FROPA ON WED. GFS HAS BECOME MUCH MORE WET BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED
INTO THUR. WED NIGHT FORECAST WILL BE AN INTERESTING ONE.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:10 am
by Heat Miser
Ptarmigan wrote:redneckweather wrote:Boy howdy, ain't gonna lie. It looks like this front coming in next week is gonna have some elbows on it!
A strong cold blast in March is rare.
And very depressing.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:20 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Heck yes! Delay the inevitable heat in HELLston!
You heat misers will have your hell soon enough. I actually enjoy 4 seasons.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:53 am
by nuby3
I'm with you moco. I think this looks promising
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:58 am
by Karen
What does next Saturday look like? Need to drive into Louisiana not sure if there will be precip with the cold.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:03 pm
by BlueJay
I am hopeful that we will not experience temperatures in the 20's for multiple hours. Those sub-freezing temperatures do a number on some of the foliage. My azaleas are budding now!
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:49 pm
by texoz
The temp forecasts here in Austin must have been challenging lately because there have been some 10+ degree busts over the last week.
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 4:59 pm
by don
Fwiw the 18z gfs shows snow/sleet as far south as Harris County
Re: March: Warm Up Early Week/Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday
Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:33 pm
by Kludge
don wrote:Fwiw the 18z gfs shows snow/sleet as far south as Harris County
I'm hoping for a MAJOR bust on this forecast... but I realize that never happens. /sarc
