Convection and associated heavy rains have developed along the coastal areas this morning as a weak front drifts slowly E. Additional light to moderate rains over S and Central TX will move across SE TX later this morning and afternoon. A wet Saturday ahead. Flood Advisory has just been issued for the coastal counties:
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
827 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015
TXC039-071-167-201-291-321-211430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0010.150321T1327Z-150321T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-HARRIS TX-MATAGORDA TX-GALVESTON TX-
BRAZORIA TX-
827 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 930 AM CDT
* AT 825 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND BRINGING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH OR MORE.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LEAGUE CITY...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...
GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...TEXAS CITY...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...DICKINSON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...FREEPORT...
SEABROOK...CLUTE...HITCHCOCK...KEMAH...SURFSIDE BEACH...GALVESTON
PIER 21...RICHWOOD AND ANAHUAC.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.
March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record
from http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
Issuance Time 21/1538Z
Area of Interest LA...TX
Outlook Valid Until 21/1845Z
Event...Update to previous spe for ongoing mod/hvy precip
.
Satellite analysis and trends...Previously mentioned s/wv impulse moving thru s tx continues to lift to the ne and pockets of mod/locally hvy rainfall is seen across sern/ern tx. Convection has initiated along the frontal bndry and near the sfc wave/best moisture cnvg. Instability is relatively marginal over land but recent spc mesoanalysis indicates an area of 500 j/kg mucape nosing to the n near the srn tx/la border likely from low lvl srly flow advecting warm/moist/unstable air into the region over the frontal bndry. Convection has managed to develop near this area of higher instability focused near kgls/kbpt and currently is moving slowly to the n/ne. Deep moisture is also not only in place but continues to increase across srn/sern tx/srn la from aforementioned low lvl srly flow...With recent gps pw values climbing close to 2" along the tx/swrn la coastline. This only continues to beef up rainfall rates throughout the area of discussion.
.
Further to the sw in srn/s cent tx...Rainfall has become more organized due to another upper lvl disturbance seen in wv imagery lifting to the ne thru nrn mexico and moving into wrn tx. Enhanced radar reflectivities/cooling cloud-tops thru srn tx reflect this area of increased vertical ascent. Pw values are also highly anomalous thru srn tx feeding off of the moisture plume extending back to the e pac evidenced in cira experimental layered tpw imagery above 700 mb. Instability remains offshore s of the frontal bndry however...So convection and max rainfall rates should remain limited to ern tx/swrn la.
Short term outlook valid 1545z-1845z...Medium-high confidence factor
In short term outlook...Expect mod/hvy rainfall to continue across s/s cent tx as s/wv impulse continues to lift ne into area of highly anomalous moisture. Anticipate highest rainfall rates to be found further to ne in sern tx/swrn la asscd with embedded convective cells. As 850 mb vwp data from khgx shows winds veering to swrly...Focus of convection should remain along nern tx coastline into swrn la. Imagine that 1-2"/hr rainfall rates are possible within areas of convection. Rainfall rates will most likely be lower back in s/s cent tx due to lack of instability.
Graphic: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... 211538.gif
(they never re-size for me)
Issuance Time 21/1538Z
Area of Interest LA...TX
Outlook Valid Until 21/1845Z
Event...Update to previous spe for ongoing mod/hvy precip
.
Satellite analysis and trends...Previously mentioned s/wv impulse moving thru s tx continues to lift to the ne and pockets of mod/locally hvy rainfall is seen across sern/ern tx. Convection has initiated along the frontal bndry and near the sfc wave/best moisture cnvg. Instability is relatively marginal over land but recent spc mesoanalysis indicates an area of 500 j/kg mucape nosing to the n near the srn tx/la border likely from low lvl srly flow advecting warm/moist/unstable air into the region over the frontal bndry. Convection has managed to develop near this area of higher instability focused near kgls/kbpt and currently is moving slowly to the n/ne. Deep moisture is also not only in place but continues to increase across srn/sern tx/srn la from aforementioned low lvl srly flow...With recent gps pw values climbing close to 2" along the tx/swrn la coastline. This only continues to beef up rainfall rates throughout the area of discussion.
.
Further to the sw in srn/s cent tx...Rainfall has become more organized due to another upper lvl disturbance seen in wv imagery lifting to the ne thru nrn mexico and moving into wrn tx. Enhanced radar reflectivities/cooling cloud-tops thru srn tx reflect this area of increased vertical ascent. Pw values are also highly anomalous thru srn tx feeding off of the moisture plume extending back to the e pac evidenced in cira experimental layered tpw imagery above 700 mb. Instability remains offshore s of the frontal bndry however...So convection and max rainfall rates should remain limited to ern tx/swrn la.
Short term outlook valid 1545z-1845z...Medium-high confidence factor
In short term outlook...Expect mod/hvy rainfall to continue across s/s cent tx as s/wv impulse continues to lift ne into area of highly anomalous moisture. Anticipate highest rainfall rates to be found further to ne in sern tx/swrn la asscd with embedded convective cells. As 850 mb vwp data from khgx shows winds veering to swrly...Focus of convection should remain along nern tx coastline into swrn la. Imagine that 1-2"/hr rainfall rates are possible within areas of convection. Rainfall rates will most likely be lower back in s/s cent tx due to lack of instability.
Graphic: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... 211538.gif
(they never re-size for me)
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Texaspirate11
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5 inches in the bay area today.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
1.59" here. 7.35" for March and 10.93" for 2015.
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srainhoutx
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Morning briefing from Jeff:
Mild and dry weather will be in place today-Wednesday.
After nearly two weeks of rainfall across the region, a dry period will take hold with both surface and upper level ridging in place for the next few days. This should give the ground a chance to dry out some and area rivers an opportunity to drain the weekend run-off.
Temperatures will run near normal over the next few days with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s Monday-Wednesday. Southerly winds begin to return on Tuesday and that will usher in a more humid Gulf air mass. May have to watch for the formation of dense sea fog by Wednesday into early Thursday as dewpoints creep above nearshore water temperatures.
Next storm system arrives into the area on Thursday with a surface cold front that will progress across the region with some fairly chilly air for late March. Capping looks a little stout on the latest model soundings across SE TX which may limit thunderstorm formation along the frontal boundary which will cross the region during the day. This system is fast moving with the front off the coast by Thursday afternoon and a dry/cool air mass moving into the region for the weekend. Next weekend looks nearly perfect with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s/70’s under sunny skies.
Hydro:
Heavy rainfall along the coast and across the NW ½ of the region on Saturday has once again resulted in area river rises. Flood warnings are currently in effect for the following rivers:
San Bernard River at East Bernard and Boling
Trinity River at Moss Bluff
Guadalupe River at Victoria and Bloomington
Lavaca River at Edna
Flood waves should gradually move downstream over the next 48-72 hours with slowly falling river levels at most points by the middle to end of the week.
Mild and dry weather will be in place today-Wednesday.
After nearly two weeks of rainfall across the region, a dry period will take hold with both surface and upper level ridging in place for the next few days. This should give the ground a chance to dry out some and area rivers an opportunity to drain the weekend run-off.
Temperatures will run near normal over the next few days with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s Monday-Wednesday. Southerly winds begin to return on Tuesday and that will usher in a more humid Gulf air mass. May have to watch for the formation of dense sea fog by Wednesday into early Thursday as dewpoints creep above nearshore water temperatures.
Next storm system arrives into the area on Thursday with a surface cold front that will progress across the region with some fairly chilly air for late March. Capping looks a little stout on the latest model soundings across SE TX which may limit thunderstorm formation along the frontal boundary which will cross the region during the day. This system is fast moving with the front off the coast by Thursday afternoon and a dry/cool air mass moving into the region for the weekend. Next weekend looks nearly perfect with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s/70’s under sunny skies.
Hydro:
Heavy rainfall along the coast and across the NW ½ of the region on Saturday has once again resulted in area river rises. Flood warnings are currently in effect for the following rivers:
San Bernard River at East Bernard and Boling
Trinity River at Moss Bluff
Guadalupe River at Victoria and Bloomington
Lavaca River at Edna
Flood waves should gradually move downstream over the next 48-72 hours with slowly falling river levels at most points by the middle to end of the week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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A fast moving cold front arrives early Thursday ushering in a beautiful late March Weekend. The guidance is beginning to advertise a bit more in the way of rainfall next week as a stronger disturbance nears our Region as we end March and begin April. Severe Weather might be possible next week a bit closer to home, so it may be worth monitoring. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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Morning briefing from Jeff:
Moisture returning to SE TX today ahead of a cool front forecasted to pass the area early Thursday.
Dewpoints slowly creeping up today with southerly flow over the region as low pressure moves across the plains. This low pressure system will drag a cool front into TX this afternoon which will move rapidly across SE TX on Thursday morning. Thermodynamic profiles this afternoon and tonight support a fairly strong capping inversion across much of the state which should keep thunderstorm activity along the frontal boundary on the lower side. Frontal lift itself should provide the area with a line of fast moving showers Thursday morning with rainfall amounts averaging .10 to .25 of an inch. A couple of thunderstorms may develop along or near the coast as frontal lift and lift from an approaching short wave aloft combine, but the short wave lift and front are just really not in phase. Additionally timing of the front in the morning tends to not support much thunderstorm activity his time of year without help from surface heating to erode the capping inversion.
Post frontal air mass will be very pleasant with low temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s Friday and Saturday and high temperatures in the 70’s to near 80 under mostly sunny skies. This will be one of those rare nice weekends in SE TX with sunny skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures…enjoy it as we all know the heat and humidity is not that far off now.
Next storm system begins to take shape over the western US early next week and possibly moves across TX about a week from today. GFS is very aggressive with this storm showing the upper level system taking on a negative tilt with widespread rain and even some severe weather while the ECMWF is much more tame. Plenty of time for the models to come to some conclusion on this event.
Hydro:
Rivers still draining the run-off from the very wet last few weeks with three rivers still above flood stage this morning.
San Bernard River at Boling is above flood stage and will continue to rise and crest at near 21.1ft Thursday morning (FS is 18.0 ft)
Trinity River is above flood stage at Moss Bluff and should fall below flood stage later this morning
Guadalupe River is above flood stage at both Victoria and Bloomington and will remain above flood stage at Bloomington through early Saturday. At Victoria the river should fall below flood stage late today.
West Fork of the San Jacinto: River is near crest at I-45, Porter, and Humble and should begin a slow fall today below flood stage.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River: River has crested an is falling at Cleveland, but is rising at New Caney. River will remain within banks.
Brazos River: River is falling at all points and well within banks.
Rainfall forecast on Thursday will not likely effect current recessions.
Moisture returning to SE TX today ahead of a cool front forecasted to pass the area early Thursday.
Dewpoints slowly creeping up today with southerly flow over the region as low pressure moves across the plains. This low pressure system will drag a cool front into TX this afternoon which will move rapidly across SE TX on Thursday morning. Thermodynamic profiles this afternoon and tonight support a fairly strong capping inversion across much of the state which should keep thunderstorm activity along the frontal boundary on the lower side. Frontal lift itself should provide the area with a line of fast moving showers Thursday morning with rainfall amounts averaging .10 to .25 of an inch. A couple of thunderstorms may develop along or near the coast as frontal lift and lift from an approaching short wave aloft combine, but the short wave lift and front are just really not in phase. Additionally timing of the front in the morning tends to not support much thunderstorm activity his time of year without help from surface heating to erode the capping inversion.
Post frontal air mass will be very pleasant with low temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s Friday and Saturday and high temperatures in the 70’s to near 80 under mostly sunny skies. This will be one of those rare nice weekends in SE TX with sunny skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures…enjoy it as we all know the heat and humidity is not that far off now.
Next storm system begins to take shape over the western US early next week and possibly moves across TX about a week from today. GFS is very aggressive with this storm showing the upper level system taking on a negative tilt with widespread rain and even some severe weather while the ECMWF is much more tame. Plenty of time for the models to come to some conclusion on this event.
Hydro:
Rivers still draining the run-off from the very wet last few weeks with three rivers still above flood stage this morning.
San Bernard River at Boling is above flood stage and will continue to rise and crest at near 21.1ft Thursday morning (FS is 18.0 ft)
Trinity River is above flood stage at Moss Bluff and should fall below flood stage later this morning
Guadalupe River is above flood stage at both Victoria and Bloomington and will remain above flood stage at Bloomington through early Saturday. At Victoria the river should fall below flood stage late today.
West Fork of the San Jacinto: River is near crest at I-45, Porter, and Humble and should begin a slow fall today below flood stage.
East Fork of the San Jacinto River: River has crested an is falling at Cleveland, but is rising at New Caney. River will remain within banks.
Brazos River: River is falling at all points and well within banks.
Rainfall forecast on Thursday will not likely effect current recessions.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Temperatures have dropped into the 50's in NW Harris County. Brrr....it's chilly out there this morning.
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srainhoutx
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The latest drought update suggests that almost half of the Lone Star State is not experiencing any drought conditions. That is a remarkable improvement since this long term drought began in 2008 and firmly took hold across virtually all of Texas dating back to 2010. We all remember how bad the drought was back in 2011 when wild fires were sweeping across the State.
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srainhoutx
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March ends as one of the top 15 'wettest' March on record for the top tier reporting stations for SE Texas. The abundant rainfall ended the drought conditions for all of SE Texas except Jackson County, but even there we have seen improvement in the multi year drought conditions that began way back in 2008 and became severe in 2010 across our Region. With a weak El Nino pattern continuing to unfold, additional areas of Texas may well see continued improvement in the rainfall pattern. All in all our late Fall and Winter months brought beneficial rainfall across most of the Lone Star State into Louisiana.
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