February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[BlueJay]

The high temp at our house was 54F early this morning but we have steadily fallen down to a chilly 42F. I surely hope that our warmer temps for this weekend are not delayed.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is indicating a period of below-normal temps here late next week. Coldest of around 35 on Valentine's Day, which is about 10 degrees below normal for the low. Could get down to freezing, though. Nothing extreme, and no winter weather here. Meanwhile, we should warm up considerably by this weekend with some sunshine.

[BlueJay]

Thanks wxman57.
Warms my soul!

[Ptarmigan]

The 12Z GFS is indicating a period of below-normal temps here late next week. Coldest of around 35 on Valentine's Day, which is about 10 degrees below normal for the low. Could get down to freezing, though. Nothing extreme, and no winter weather here. Meanwhile, we should warm up considerably by this weekend with some sunshine.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zfeb5.gif

You know that is more than 7 days away. That can change.

[srainhoutx]

The pesky clouds that brought chilly and dreary weather yesterday should give way to peaks of Sun by the afternoon as SW winds scour out the clouds setting the stage for a Chamber of Commerce weekend. A weak front arrives Sunday evening cooling us off a bit.

Next week looks pleasant, but clouds begin to increase as a storm system currently bringing rain to the Pacific Northwest and California drops South and begins to cut off near the Baja Peninsula. The next surge of chilly air looks to arrive next Thursday while the Baja upper low spins to our West. Rain chances may increase later next week as moisture streams NE over the colder air at the surface. Get out and enjoy this weekend. It should be gorgeous with temperatures approaching 80 for highs on Sunday!

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is indicating a period of below-normal temps here late next week. Coldest of around 35 on Valentine's Day, which is about 10 degrees below normal for the low. Could get down to freezing, though. Nothing extreme, and no winter weather here. Meanwhile, we should warm up considerably by this weekend with some sunshine.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zfeb5.gif

You know that is more than 7 days away. That can change.

Of course it'll change, but it won't likely change to lows in the 20s with snow. It may be that our low is 30-31 or 38-39 vs. 35.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

yer long term 4cast...pretty sure MY PUDDIN' was behind my getting this (he has a sick sense of humour)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbHW1T7boSc

YOU FOLKS SHOULD SEE THE LONG RANGE 4 CAST MAP DOCTOR DOUG PUT UP A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO ...SPEAKING OF WHICH HOW WELL WRAPPED R UR PIPES???

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

PRETTY SURE THIS FOOL IS THE ONE THAT GOES BY TY???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e65Xtc4AHM0 HE IS SURE U FOLKS ARE EVER SO JEALOUS OF THE WEATHER HE GETS TO EXPERIENCE.

AND, DRUM ROLL PLEASE, HERE IS THE TROPHY WINNING (IN THE UNITED STATES) LONG RANGE 4 CAST MAP OF MY DOC:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/groundhogday


YOU FOLKS ARE INDEED SKEWERED!!!!!

[Heat Miser]

yer long term 4cast...pretty sure MY PUDDIN' was behind my getting this (he has a sick sense of humour)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbHW1T7boSc

YOU FOLKS SHOULD SEE THE LONG RANGE 4 CAST MAP DOCTOR DOUG PUT UP A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO ...SPEAKING OF WHICH HOW WELL WRAPPED R UR PIPES???

I'm confident no pipe wrapping will be necessary in the weeks ahead, even in the months ahead.

[srainhoutx]

What a beautiful warm weekend we have had. Today makes you appreciate that we do not live in New England. The medium to longer range ensembles are suggesting that after this pleasant stretch of weather ends, the pattern may change back to a bit 'chillier' regime as the persistent Gulf of Alaska low retrogrades allowing the Western Ridge to shift a bit West and increase our chances of a colder shot of air moving in around the 20th, +/- a day or two. That would be just in time for the Trail Rides to begin as we near the start of the Rodeo. Funny how that seems to happen.

[Katdaddy]

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a large portion of SE TX this morning so give yourself extra time and drive safe this morning. A mostly sunny week on the way with highs dropping into the 60s Thursday through next weekend.Dense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
447 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...

.PATCHY DENSE FOG EMBEDDED IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 AM. VISIBILITIES MAY RAPIDLY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN 2 OR 3 MILES THEN FALL TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THE
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND 9 AM.

TXZ197-199-213-091500-
/O.EXB.KHGX.FG.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150209T1500Z/
HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...CONROE...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
KATY...PASADENA...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WILLIS
447 AM CST MON FEB 9 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

* TIMING...THROUGH 9 AM.

* IMPACT...DUE TO THE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE LOW BEAMS WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE DENSE
FOG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[jasons2k]

What an absolutely gorgeous day! Looks like a nice week ahead too. I noticed some trees and even some azaleas are already blooming. Maybe we will get lucky and have no more freezes this year

[srainhoutx]

After a cool start this morning temperatures will rebound today continuing our string of Spring like weather. A cold front arrives tomorrow reminding us that Winter is not completely over. This front will be dry but will knock our overnight low temperatures back into the 30's for inland locations.

Foggy conditions looks likely as the week progresses and winds return off the Gulf. The computer models suggest the Upper Ridge to our West retreats late week as a very deep trough dives South across the Eastern half of the United States ushering in some very cold air all the way to Florida. Texas will not completely escape the bitter cold to our East as a strong front arrives over the weekend. Daytime highs may struggle to reach the low to mid 50's by Sunday. There is some indications that rain chances may increase early next week after the chilly air arrives reminding us that it is still February. Enjoy the Pleasant weather while it lasts.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting a fairly strong shot of colder air arriving next Tuesday night. Temperatures in the 30's for lows with an upper air disturbance pushing SE out of the Southern Rockies may spell a round of wintry mischief across the Panhandle, West Texas and possibly into the Hill Country if the GFS is correct.

02102015 12Z GFS f180.gif

[Katdaddy]

A Dense Fog Advisory until 10AM this morning. The nice weather continues with sun and low 70s before our next cool front arrives tonight dropping highs in into the low 60s for Thursday and Friday. Temps warm to the upper 60s Saturday before another cool front arrives Sunday dropping the highs back into the low 60s. Lots of sun the next 4 days after some clouds associated with tonight's front clear out tomorrow morning.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
507 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

.AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG
AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR THROUGH 10 AM.
VISIBILITIES MAY RAPIDLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 2 OR 3 MILES THEN FALL
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING.

TXZ176-177-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-111600-
/O.CON.KHGX.FG.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-150211T1600Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
507 AM CST WED FEB 11 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

* EVENT...DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM.

* IMPACT...DUE TO THE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND USE LOW BEAMS WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE DENSE
FOG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[srainhoutx]

It is still a week out, but the overnight Euro and GFS are suggesting a disturbance near the Baja begins to slide NE after a strong shot of 'colder air' arrives with over running moisture and the approach of an upper air disturbance moving SE from the Southern Rockies. While the 'coldest' air should be off to our E, the models are beginning to suggest some wintry mischief could be possible mid next week and may be worth monitoring after our extended quiet weather pattern and mild temperatures.

[brooksgarner]

Oh... we can dream. The 06z GFS run forecasts several inches of snow for areas just north of Houston, by the close of business NEXT Wednesday -- 7-days out. Guaranteed, GFS will "un-forecast" this scenario, then 36hrs before, "re-forecast" it... Might be interesting next week. Maybe.

Heck, you guys know the game.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_houston_32.png

[wxman57]

Here's comparison of 2m temps between the 6Z GFS and 12Z. Charts below are for Wed and Thu lows. New GFS brings the colder air in earlier but isn't quite as cold for Thursday's low (10F warmer, in fact). I'd say that there is a potential for a hard freeze down the coast next Wed/Thu.

First, Wednesday's 12Z temps from the 6Z GFS:


12Z GFS for next Wednesday morning - cold coming in faster. Down to 24 in Houston and 15-18 in Dallas area!


Now Thursday's 12Z temps from the 6Z GFS. 12-16F across D-FW and 18-21F across Houston:


And the 12Z Run - about 10F warmer in both locations:

[srainhoutx]

Interesting Update from the WPC. They are starting to believe this expected cold shot next week may have some legs across the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States. Of course the major fly in the ointment will be how the Baja storm system ejects E after the cold air arrives. I will say that is an impressive PNA Ridge developing up into Alaska and Western Canada and a 1048+mb Arctic High dropping S from Canada is nothing to sneeze at.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1103 AM EST WED FEB 11 2015

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 14 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2015

...A VERY COLD AND ACTIVE FEBRUARY WINTER WEATHER PATTERN...

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OFFER BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD OVER
MEDIUM-RANGE TIME SCALES. THIS LENDS PREFERENCE FOR A COMPOSITE
BLEND OF THE QUITE COMPATABLE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A BASE FOR WPC SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS. THIS WPC BLENDED SOLUTION
INCLUDES QUITE A BIT OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL INPUT TO INCORPORATE
MORE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL THAN NORMAL AS CONSISTENT WITH
PREDICTABILITY.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT STARTS THIS WEEKEND WITH AN ERODING RIDGE
OVER WRN NOAM OVERTOP A CLOSED AND SLOW TO MOVE LOW NEAR BAJA
WHOSE MOISTURE MAY PROVE SLOW TO WORK INTO THE SWRN US WHERE ONLY
MODEST ASSOCIATED PCPN IS NOTED IN MOST GUIDANCE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WPC GUIDANCE AGAIN REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.

NRN STREAM DIGGING IMPULSES CARVE OUT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LEAD
E-CENTRAL/ERN US/CANADIAN MARITIMES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SAT-MON THAT
SHOULD USHER IN DEEP COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF WELL ORGANIZED INLAND
BASED SURFACE LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND DEEPENING COASTAL LOWS.
THIS OFFERS AN ORGANIZED SNOW SWATH FOR THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THAT LEADS INTO A COASTAL WINTER STORM THREAT FOR THE NORTHEAST.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS ONLY MODEST QPF...BUT THE THREAT WITH THE
DEEP LOW IS VERY REAL GIVEN RECENT EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT
GRADIENTS/HIGH WIND LIKELIHOOD.

IT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE COLD SNAP IN THE
STORM WAKE PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DIGS IN FROM CANADA
WELL INTO LOWER LATITUDES. SOME AREAS COULD APPROACH RECORD TEMPS.

LATER/MEANWHILE...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED/COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN SHOWING THE UPSTREAM WRN US RIDGE
RETROGRESSION AND STRONG AMPLIFICATION OFFSHORE AND UP TOWARD
ALASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEEP PACIFIC
LOW DEVELOPMENTS. THIS NOW LEAVES MUCH MORE ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL
UNSETTLING TROUGH DIGGING ALOFT WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH INFUSION WELL INTO THE US. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO AN EMERGING SW US AND S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES SNOW
THREAT AIDED BY TERRAIN/UPSLOPE FETCH.

SCHICHTEL

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is coming in cold as well with the front arriving next Tuesday. Moisture is still the wild card, but there is some phasing of the Baja storm system and the shortwave dropping SE across New Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday.