February: Tracking Rain/Wintry Mix & Arctic Front

[ticka1]

Time to start talking anout february weather? Hoping it stays cold and we see some frozen precip.

[Karen]

Any idea of next Sunday going to walk my first Half Marathon

[dljones33]

I can't believe they are forecasting 70s for this coming week. I'm all for it but the plants seem to be confused. My Japanese Magnolia is covered in blooms and the grass is still green. The ferns and elephant ear have yet to be affected by the cold either. Most of the tender vegetation is usually frozen back by now. In fact, the leaves are still on some of the trees in my neighborhood. I for one am done with winter though I know we are not out of the woods yet.

[srainhoutx]

Any idea of next Sunday going to walk my first Half Marathon

Right now there is a lot of uncertainty as to what the sensible weather will be next Sunday. The pesky upper low to our SW is generating a lot of volatility within the various computer model schemes.The safest bet would be to plan on some precipitation chances as the sub tropical jet looks very noisy and unsettled.Temperature wise, it appears that some chilly air may be possible, but the entire Eastern half of the Lower 48 does look to have a very volatile weather week ahead. Expect changes in the forecast as the week progresses. Stay Tuned!

[Karen]

Thanks I will

[dljones33]

Thanks srainhoutx!

[Texaspirate11]

Keep it in the 70's - that's cold enough for me

[srainhoutx]

Karen, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has increased a bit today as the global models attempt to resolve that spinning Baja upper low and the moisture spreading across Mexico into Texas in the Saturday into Sunday timeframe. It appears like a chilly rain with temperatures in the 40's at this time for your walking Marathon next Sunday. There is still a lot of volatility with the various computer model solutions and some of it is likely due to the Major Weather Headline Nor'easter tomorrow into Wednesday as well as the problems solving the storm systems across the Northern Pacific. I am seeing some -40's to -50's showing up across Eurasia/Siberia/The Artic Circle and Eastern Alaska trending toward Western Canada in the extended range which is very chilly across our source Regions...if the ensembles are correct...

[Karen]

Karen, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has increased a bit today as the global models attempt to resolve that spinning Baja upper low and the moisture spreading across Mexico into Texas in the Saturday into Sunday timeframe. It appears like a chilly rain with temperatures in the 40's at this time for your walking Marathon next Sunday. There is still a lot of volatility with the various computer model solutions and some of it is likely due to the Major Weather Headline Nor'easter tomorrow into Wednesday as well as the problems solving the storm systems across the Northern Pacific. I am seeing some -40's to -50's showing up across Eurasia/Siberia/The Artic Circle and Eastern Alaska trending toward Western Canada in the extended range which is very chilly across our source Regions...if the ensembles are correct...

012520105 1745Z Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

GREAT!!!!!!!!! I love the temps but not the precip.

[srainhoutx]

The reliable Euro and GEFS ensemble mean are beginning to suggest that we may see a return to 'cooler weather' as the pesky Gulf of Alaska upper low weakens and drift W and a rather deep trough develops across the Inter Mountain West into the Plains. Temperature anomalies across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska and Western Canada begin to turn rather chilly again suggesting there may be some potential of old man winter making a return to our part of the world in the medium to long range. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

The Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Analogs, Temperature and Precipitation forecasts suggest chilly air may well returning the Day 6 to 10 range, but the ensembles are a bit drier precipitation wise across our Region.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 27 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2015

TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS ALASKA. YESTERDAY'S
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
AND DEPICTS IT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MORE TROUGH ENERGY BEING HELD BACK NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE VERY LOW SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PNA
INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO
BY DAY 7, BE POSITIVE BY DAY 10, AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO
INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 7, BE
POSITIVE BY DAY 10, AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAY'S BLENDED 500-HPA
HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FLORIDA), AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, FLORIDA, AND ALASKA.

FOR THE CONUS, AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL HEIGHTS
ROUGHLY CORRESPOND TO AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE LOWER HEIGHTS FORECAST TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, A TWO CATEGORY CHANGE (FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) IS APPARENT FOR THE REGION. WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF
THE ALEUTIANS, THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF ALASKA TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA.

THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. THE EXPECTATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES. SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR SIDE
OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS
TO FAVORING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A TROUGH
FORECAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANANDLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF ALASKA TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like a shot of cold air may settle S into the Plains and our Region mid next week. Currently as of this morning temperatures are in the -50's in Eastern Alaska to the -40's in NW Canada. While the 'coldest' air appears to be off to our N and E, it will be a far cry from the warm weather we are currently experiencing.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance suggests a pesky cut off upper low will remain somewhat stationary and drift near Southern California and the Baja Peninsula into Sunday. A rather strong upper air disturbance will drop SE from Western Canada into the Plains ushering in a rather strong cold front Sunday night lowering temperatures a good 10 degrees or so. Embedded disturbances will likely eject E as that pesky SW Upper low meanders E toward Texas and begins to shear out. There is some potential for a Coastal trough to begin organizing early next week along the Lower Texas Coast and move ENE by Wednesday.

Sunday looks wet with showers possible and temperatures near 60. The next surge of chilly air pushes S Sunday. There is still some potential of a stronger shot of colder air mid next week as that upper trough to our SW finally moves E. As always with these pesky upper low/troughs uncertainty remains and we will have to wait monitor the day to day changes. It does appear the pleasant weather we've been experiencing will transition to an unsettled pattern possibly extending into the second weekend of February. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

After what can only be described as pleasant the last few days…a reminder that it is still winter is upon the region this evening.

A cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in a colder air mass compared to the last 4-5 days. High temperatures on Friday will run about 10-15 degrees colder than the mid 70’s today and even colder air will arrive by late Sunday. An upper level storm system off of Baja this evening will meander into NW MX Saturday allowing mid and high level moisture to overrun the cold surface dome…a return to cloudy conditions as early as Friday followed by the onset of light rainfall late Saturday. Rain coverage will increase and intensify on Sunday as a polar frontal boundary approaches from the north and moisture pools ahead of this feature. Amounts are expected to by generally light by our standards or on the order of .25 to .50 of an inch.

Polar front pushes offshore Sunday afternoon/evening with strong cold air advection resulting in falling temperatures. Lows will return to the 30’s/40’s Monday with highs only in the low 50’s. A brief break in the rainfall potential for Sunday night into Monday as the polar air mass dries out the low levels, but we will probably not see the mid and high level cloud cover clear completely out. Rain chances return with the ejection of the main upper level low over MX Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, but there is considerable guidance spread on just how fast this system moves toward and across TX. Experience this winter with storms ejecting out of the Baja region has been that the slower solutions have tended to verify best.

Overall fairly cool to cold pattern looks to hold into middle February after this brief warm spell as the upper level pattern will support fronts every few days keeping cold air in place east of the Rockies.

[Katdaddy]

Increasing clouds followed by rain chances this weekend thanks to a slow moving W Coast trough. A cool front moved off the TX Coast overnight bring cooler temps. Highs in the 60s this weekend and lows in the 40s and 50s. Not the best weekend weather but not the worst.

[srainhoutx]

That pesky cut off upper low over Baja continues to spin and slowly drop SSE tapping abundant tropical from the Eastern Pacific. Light rain chances should increase over night and may increase slightly in areal coverage as a cold front pushes S across Texas tomorrow. There may be a rumble or two of thunder as the front nears Central and SE Texas into Louisiana.

Tuesday into Wednesday may offer some heavier rains and possibly some isolated storms as the upper low nears Coastal Texas and eventually pulls E. Another shot of colder air arrives in the wake of the Coastal trough/low and could bring temperatures into the mid 30's for lows and highs struggling to achieve the 50 degree mark before we begin to warm up and clear out later next week.

[jasons2k]

I thought I was supposed to wake-up to a dreary rainy day. Actually looks decent outside.

Edited - just read the AFD. Looks like they busted big time on this. I was wondering about this yesterday - it looked like a lot of dry air was wrapping in from the SW around that ULL but I didn't have time to chime-in, but they were still going with 70-80% rain and I figured maybe they knew/saw something I didn't.

[srainhoutx]

I just a few sprinkles last evening and todays forecast looks iffy regarding in meaningful rain chances. Look like the pre frontal trough may sweep in remaining chance of rain and isolated storms further E into Louisiana this afternoon and early this evening. It will be noticeably colder tomorrow morning with gusty NW winds behind the cold front. Early morning visible imagery does show that the Upper Rio Grande Gorge across Southern Colorado into Northern New Mexico received a good bit of snow since Friday. Maybe some Coastal showers and storms as that upper trough/low finally moves across South Texas into the NW Gulf on Tuesday, be even that is beginning to look less likely for inland locations as the disturbance may be too far offshore.

[unome]

we hit 76 for a high on this "cool start" to Feb

[Heat Miser]

If there's not going to be any meaningful cold fronts with the possibility of snow and or sleet, bring forth Spring and some nice thunderstorms.