August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[jasons2k]

Nothing for me in the last week....missed several rounds by only a mile or two....drying out quickly now.

[BlueJay]

Me too jasons. We have had no measurable rain in 19 days.
But, on an up note, the temperatures have not peaked to the 100's...yet.

[Texaspirate11]

Me too jasons. We have had no measurable rain in 19 days.
But, on an up note, the temperatures have not peaked to the 100's...yet.

BLUE JAY - stick around this weekend and early into next
you'll see heat indices hit 107...

summer...finally!

[unome]

Hooks is already at 106 for a heat index at noon, I think they might beat that "max 107" forecast

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... all&smap=1

[tireman4]

And I so dislike August in Texas. Ughhhhhh

[unome]

they didn't hit 107 but did stay at 106 for 6 straight hours...

I have precip envy

[tireman4]

Relief may come next week. We just have to hold on...

[srainhoutx]

Those that received the afternoon storms did rather well in the rainfall department today. Folks near Aldine received 2+ inches and those in the near NW side from Fairbanks North Houston down to the Loop saw an inch+ along White Oak Bayou. Further E close to Lake Houston near the E Belt got a little less than inch in some neighborhoods.

[Rip76]

Some nice storms firing up today.

[Katdaddy]

Round 3 has started and now up .93" for the day. A shot of the weather station before round 3 started.

[srainhoutx]

The computer models are beginning to latch on to a solution that looks a bit more favorable for heavy rainfall through at least mid week. PW's have increased to 2 inches and should increase to 2.3+ Monday into Tuesday across Central/East/SE Texas into the Southern half of Louisiana. Yet another deep Eastern US trough and attending frontal boundary should sag S and provide a focal point for daily convection. As usual, meso features will be the fly in the ointment and cannot be determined with any accuracy beyond 6-12 hours prior to any heavy rainfall event or where the storms likely have the greatest impact.

As of now it appears the greatest threat for stronger storms with heavy rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour where they do develop would be N of the HWY 59 to I-10 Corridor, but that will need to be monitored particularly tomorrow afternoon/evening as storms fire and develop across potions of Central and East Texas. The pooling of deep rich tropical moisture of 2 standard deviation above normal suggest some potential of flooding of low lying areas and locations typically prone to flooding during heavy rainfall rates. Depending on where the front actually stalls and eventually washes out, the threat of heavy slow moving storms should continue into at least Wednesday.

[Texaspirate11]

94l DECLARED BY NHC

[Paul Robison]

94l DECLARED BY NHC

Ike 2.0?

[BlueJay]

Super Moon out tonite!

[Texaspirate11]

94l DECLARED BY NHC

Ike 2.0?

Too far out to call it anything other than 94L!

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Another rare summer cold front heading for the region.

Cool front currently located over S OK will progress southward today while the seabreeze moves northward. Expect thunderstorms to develop along both boundaries as daytime heating works on an unstable and moist air mass. Upstream frontal convection will sink southward toward the area this evening while seabreeze storms will move northward to I-10 and possibly Hwy 105. Forecast soundings this afternoon over our northern counties show a bit of dry air in the mid levels which may enhance the potential for wind damage in the stronger storms..

This evening into the overnight short term models show the frontal boundary and seabreeeze colliding somewhere in SE TX between roughly I-10 and a College Station to Huntsville line. Models really put the brakes on storm motions as this happens in a setup not all that different from the August 1st storm event. PWS pool to near 2.2 inches tonight which suggest an excessive rainfall threat with any slow moving convection. Will have to watch trends very carefully this evening to see if another short fused flash flood event may develop over some part of the region.

Frontal boundary will sag to I-10 or even the coast on Tuesday with a significantly drier air mass moving into at least the northern parts of the area. Rare dewpoints in the 60’s and possibly even in the 50’s will make for overnight lows in the upper 60’s to near 70 across our northern set of counties. It is up for debate on how far south the dry air makes it into the region and this depends on where the front finally stalls. Past experience suggest the front will move a little future south than forecast given convection and outflows along the boundary…so I think it will clear the coast sometime late Tuesday. With the front south of the region…we should see a break in any thunderstorm development except for maybe the coast and offshore waters. The boundary begins to lift back northward on Wednesday and a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon appears possible as upper level ridging does not really assert itself over the region.    

[srainhoutx]

A line of storms is beginning to organize S of San Angelo and N of the Hill Country Highland Lakes. The HRRR and RAP short range rapid refresh guidance continues to suggest the sea breeze will become active and move inland colliding with those southward advancing storms to our NW later this afternoon into the evening hours.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 352 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM S
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CALDWELL AND IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN BRAZOS COUNTY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN BRYAN...CALDWELL...SNOOK...DEANVILLE AND CHRIESMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 9685 3073 9646 3052 9636 3033 9673
3057 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 340DEG 9KT 3062 9680

[kayci]

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-212-112215-
GRIMES TX-TRINITY TX-BURLESON TX-MADISON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-
HOUSTON TX-WALKER TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
424 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON...CENTRAL HOUSTON...
SOUTHERN BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...EAST CENTRAL MADISON...
NORTHERN WALLER...WALKER...GRIMES...BURLESON...NORTHWESTERN POLK...
TRINITY AND NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 424 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK TO NEAR SOMERVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...SOUTHERN BRYAN...CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...BRENHAM...
NAVASOTA...WILLIS...CALDWELL...APPLE SPRINGS...WASHINGTON...
TRINITY...PANORAMA VILLAGE...ONALASKA...CORRIGAN...SOMERVILLE...
GROVETON...NEW WAVERLY...POINT BLANK...LOVELADY AND MONTGOMERY.