August 2014 - Showers/Storms Possible To End The Month

[Rip76]

Looks like it will just miss us to the south.

[skidog40]

look at those cloud tops forming

[srainhoutx]

A lot of heavy rain is falling across Central and Southern Louisiana this evening. Some locations have received over 2.5 Inches+ and all that moisture and instability will be across SE/Central Texas tomorrow. The NHC made mention that the Global models.are suggesting cyclogenesis in the NW Gulf on Wednesday albeit weak and moving inland Thursday into Friday across NE Mexico/South Texas in their 8 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

[Rip76]

Nice tower fired up west of Houston, with some pretty good lightning.

[djjordan]

Seeing that same tower here from Sugar Land Rip ..... pretty impressive lightning with it.

[skidog40]

is something forming

[srainhoutx]

Not tonight skidog40. The mid/upper low is back to the E along the SE Louisiana Coast. A strong NE wind burst is expected across the NE Gulf Coast tonight and that may swift the trough SW into the Gulf. We are about 24-36 hours away for any potential weak surface low developing offshore of the Middle Texas Coast, if it forms.

[Rip76]

Nice wind out there too...

[ticka1]

no rain -just lightning and windy

[srainhoutx]

PW"s have surged to 2.4 Inches across the Region which is 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Convective temperatures are in the upper 80's with a virtually uncapped atmosphere so storms could develop rapidly and will be effective heavy rainfall makers with 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates. A TUTT low is still E across the Coastal waters S of Louisiana and will drift W and eventually stall near the Middle Texas Coast on Wednesday. The fly in the ointment is a robust short wave to our W near Nevada and a trough to the W and also another extending across the Gulf to Southern Florida. A very weak steering flow develops on Wednesday and there are some indications a weak surface low could develop S of Matagorda Bay. This surface wave should drift W into NE Mexico//South Texas this weekend, but a surge of tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea will keep an unsettled pattern in place into the weekend once the short wave/trough moves E across the Southern Plains to our N and the Gulf disturbances moves inland and weakens. Keep those umbrellas handy and watch out for potential urban flooding the next 4 to 5 days.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development
while the system moves to the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[srainhoutx]

Early morning I km Rapid Scan Visible imagery and buoy day offshore of Louisiana suggest a weak surface low may be developing SSE of Morgan City, LA. Surface winds are light out of the SE to SSE E of Houma and further W in Morgan City to Vermillion Bay, NE surface winds are observed.

[Rip76]

Man, I hope this doesn't keep all the rain offshore.

[srainhoutx]

Man, I hope this doesn't keep all the rain offshore.

I don't believe that this weak area of low pressure will develop much, if at all. As we witnessed yesterday afternoon and early evening, storms fired all the way up to NW Mississippi and across much of Louisiana, Breaks in the clouds and some daytime heating inland across Central and SE Texas should trigger scattered showers/storms.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Chance of daily thunderstorms for the next several days.

Extremely moist air mass pushing into the area this morning as Gulf of Mexico surface trough inches toward the TX coast. Radar shows some offshore activity ongoing currently and there is some hint of spin south of the Louisiana coast, likely in the mid levels. LCH sounding showed a PW of nearly 2.4 inches last evening which is 2 standard deviations above normal for late August. Models bring this very moist air mass into SE TX today especially from I-10 southward, while dry air attempts to entrain across our northern counties from the ENE.

Given the increasingly extremely moist air mass in place it will not take much heating to set things off today. Interestingly several of the meso models do not show thunderstorm development until later in the afternoon and this is similar to what happened yesterday over Louisiana. Not sure how exactly things will play out today as low trigger temperatures suggest an earlier in the day formation of storms while the models are pointing toward later. Moist tropical air mass will be very capable of some fairly impressive short term rainfall rates under the stronger storms with hourly totals of 1-3 inches possible.

Wed-Fri:
Not real sure how to handle this period as Gulf surface trough may attempt to develop into a weak surface closed low and move W or WSW toward the TX coast. TX TECH short range model shows this well along with a couple other models. Should a broad surface low form over the NW Gulf, will probably need to realign rain chances toward the coast and offshore as SE TX would lie on the northern edge of any circulation field. Not overly confident in this happening just yet to reduce rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday especially given the very moist air mass pouring into the region. NHC mentions this potential in their 700am CDT tropical weather outlook and places the development chance at 10%.

Extended (Fri-Mon):
Upper level trough over the western US will slowly progress into TX with large scale lift increasing over the region and a moist air mass remaining in place. Still could have some sort of tropical low moving inland along the TX coast Friday-Saturday….but again this is highly uncertain. Upper trough alone with tropical moisture will produce a good chance of thunderstorms over the weekend with some very heavy rainfall possible. Any tropical disturbance will only complicate things.

Tropics:
Hurricane Cristobal is lifting out NE of the Bahamas this morning after becoming the 3rd hurricane this season. The hurricane should lift NE through Thursday on the NW side of the developing sub-tropical ridge.

Low Level Pattern Shift:
Deep layer trough that has captured Cristobal over the western Atlantic has upset the normal trade wind pattern out of the deep tropics with the mean trade winds blowing SE to NW just east of the Caribbean Sea in a pattern more similar to late fall than late August. As Cristobal and this trough lifts out over the next 48 hours and sub-tropical ridging builds back westward the easterly trades will become re-established from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea….this is known as a trade wind burst. On the leading edge of such bursts, low level mass convergence or converging air at the surface helps to lead to developing convection and lowering pressures. This pattern is what led to the formation of the now infamous Hurricane Sandy (2012) over the western Caribbean. Global forecast models are starting to suggest surface pressures lowering from the central into the western Caribbean Sea this weekend into early next week and then into the Gulf of Mexico next week. There is potential for tropical cyclone development out of this pattern next week over the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

African Wave:
A strong tropical wave will be moving off the west coast or Africa over the next few days and conditions appear favorable for development of this wave as it moves westward over the tropical Atlantic.

[Rip76]

Dry air force field at the coast of Texas?

[davidiowx]

It sure does look like some spin going on out there with some cooler tops forming over the center area

[srainhoutx]

The NHC and CARCAH has tasked a RECON mission to investigate our Gulf disturbance tomorrow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT TUE 26 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 27/1730Z
B. AFXXX 1904A CRISTOBAL
C. 27/1415Z
D. 32.8N 70.0W
E. 27/1715Z TO 27/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 27/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 27/1415Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 27/1530Z TO 27/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 16N 59W AT 28/1730Z.

4. REMARKS:
A. NOAA 43 WILL FLY AN OCEAN WINDS RESEARCH MISSION
DEPARTING AT 27/1630Z.
B. THE GLOBAL HAWK AV-6 IS PLANNING A RESEARCH
FLIGHT WITH A 28/1100Z TAKEOFF.

[Rip76]

Interesting...
Looks very tropical heading toward Galveston.

I figured this place would be lit up like a Christmas tree today.

[ticka1]

Passively watching it? Am I seeing things or is there a swirl out in the gulf near new Iberia la?

I remember Humberto spinning up quickly - wonder if this could be the same scenario?