Fall 2014 - Winter 2014-2015

[BlueJay]

srain suggested that a New Topic be started to discuss the upcoming fall and winter because inquiring minds want to know.

So, let's bounce around ideas on what to expect.

[BiggieSmalls]

I'd be interested in hearing what is expected relative to last winter, which is the coldest we'd seen in a while...particularly in DFW. Are indications that this winter could be similar, if not colder? Could be in line for the second July "cold front" in two weeks, so makes me think we could be onto something...

[Ptarmigan]

The Winter 2014-2015 forecast. Looks to be cold for Texas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like a phallic Winter in the Rust Belt...

In all seriousness, all indications point toward a Winter as bad or worse than the previous one in terms of temperature.

[Texaspirate11]

Winter is coming....

[BlueJay]

Hmmm! Maybe all of us summer heat lovers better soak it all up while we can as it appears we will be missing our daily dose of sunshine and warmth way too soon!

[Texaspirate11]

Hmmm! Maybe all of us summer heat lovers better soak it all up while we can as it appears we will be missing our daily dose of sunshine and warmth way too soon!

I'm already mourning the demise of my hot humid lazy hazy summer....

[BlueJay]

Ptarmigan posted a video of Joe Bastardi re: the looming winter in the August 2014 thread. That report is rather alarming as he believes we are likely in for a VERY VERY COLD winter.

We are all urged to plan accordingly. (Hurricane preparedness x 5?)

[wxman57]

The Winter 2014-2015 forecast. Looks to be cold for Texas.

http://i60.tinypic.com/303g2ef.jpg

That could be good (warm) for Texas, as the CFS was forecasting well above-normal temps east of the Rockies last winter.

[Ptarmigan]

That could be good (warm) for Texas, as the CFS was forecasting well above-normal temps east of the Rockies last winter.

Perhaps, but I think it will be a cool winter. Cool winters can happen back to back.

[BlueJay]

To me a "cool winter" is a warm winter. I can handle that.

A cold winter is normal for Texas, IMO.

A frigid winter is like we had in 2013 - 2014. This is hard for me to handle.

We will have to wait and see...

[wxman57]

My favorite winter here in Houston was 1985-1986. I remember it being sunny and mild/warm all winter. Hardly any rain and highs reached 92 in February. I can't think of a more ideal winter. Unfortunately, the winter of 2014-2015 isn't shaping up to be like '85-'86.

[Ptarmigan]

My favorite winter here in Houston was 1985-1986. I remember it being sunny and mild/warm all winter. Hardly any rain and highs reached 92 in February. I can't think of a more ideal winter. Unfortunately, the winter of 2014-2015 isn't shaping up to be like '85-'86.

Warm winters were 90s are recorded are extremely rare. It has happened in 1986 and 1996. There was a 96 in late March of 1946.

[Texaspirate11]

Color me totally depressed.
I hate winter to pieces.

[BlueJay]

Color me totally depressed.
I hate winter to pieces.

That's why you live in Texas near the Gulf!
(we'll get through the cold again! We can do it!!!!!!)

[BlueJay]

I noticed hints of Fall this weekend. There were Jack-o-lantern chimineas for sale at the grocery store and pots of budding mums at church.
Soon we will be seeing Christmas trees and like decor!
Makes me want to get a thicker sweater already!

[BlueJay]

Snow in Colorado, although not unheard of it still seems too soon and to close. (See article at: http://www.khou.com/story/news/nation/2 ... /15514319/)

Autumnal equinox is in 10 days (September 22, 2014). Ready or not.

[srainhoutx]

I know some folks are getting interested in what the Fall/Winter pattern holds for our Region. The early indications suggest a weak/moderate El Nino will develop as we head further into Fall. Another factor to consider is the warm pool across the N Pacific and the persistent drought out W. I tend to believe that as we head deeper into October into November the West Coast Ridge will build and a general trough pattern sets up across the Inter Mountain West into the Plains and Mid West. We are already seeing cold anomalies developing across Eurasia into Siberia with snow cover increasing. Those areas along with our source Regions in Eastern Alaska and Western Canada will need to be monitored for building colder temperatures as head toward November.

The fly in the ointment will be the tropical Pacific and will it lend to an active sub tropical jet across Northern Mexico, Southern Arizona, New Mexico and the Southern Plains? As we have seen so far this late Summer into early Fall, the pattern has been unsettled and I do not see any signs of that pattern suddenly going away. We do not have a drought feedback issue this year that we have experienced over the past several Fall/Winter Seasons. Precipitation anomalies are above average for the most part across our Region and that should continue into the Fall/Winter of 2014/2015.

Overall, it does appear that we may have above normal precipitation with below normal temperatures with the potential for Coastal lows developing across our Region. The general storm track should be two fold in my opinion. The Polar jet should orient its self across the Inter Mountain West and dig into the Plains as well as an occasional intrusion into Texas as we get further into Fall and Winter. The secondary storm track looks to set up across Northern Mexico into SE Arizona and New Mexico into the Southern Plains. This 'Southern' storm track is typical in a weak/moderate El Nino, so the best early guess is that we could see chances of increased wintry mischief across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains and on E into the Northern Gulf Coast. As a caution, these are just some early thoughts and we will need to monitor how things actually develop as we head into November and December. Also it is noteworthy that we had an active winter pattern last year across Texas with multiple ice storms that developed early (just after Thanksgiving 2013). It will be interesting to see how the pattern unfolds and just how cold we can get this year and if our source Regions deliver the goods to make for an active Fall/Winter 2014/2015 across our Region.

[cperk]

Great discussion as usual srainhoutx.

[srainhoutx]

NOAA released their Winter Outlook today...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html