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From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/14 2305Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2245Z JS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MESOANALYSIS AND TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT OVER SE TX.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2300-0600Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AT THIS TIME, DESPITE PRONOUNCED IR/VIS SIGNATURE
WITH PATCH OF CONVECTION OVER E CENT TX, PROPAGATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO OFFSET ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
POTENTIAL SIGNALS FOR ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR UPWIND REDEVELOPMENT AND PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING TO OCCUR. CURRENT
ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY/CAPE
RESIDING TO THE S AND SW OF THE PRESENT ACTIVITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING IN THE MID TO HIGH 70'S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2". ADDITIONALLY, VISIBLE ANIMATION AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE
GULF BREEZE MOVING NORTHWARD AND INLAND OVER SE TX/SW LA INTO ENVIRONMENT
OF VERY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. OBJECTIVELY DERIVED ANALYSIS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX CENTERED NEAR AND TO THE S
OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION WITH MORE SUPPORT FOR THIS REGION FROM
ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS/TRENDS, BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION TO SLOW DOWN ITS CURRENTLY STEADY
S-SE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND ENHANCE/CONGEAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH WHAT'S
LEFT OF INLAND MOVING GULF BREEZE. AS THIS OCCURS, CONFLUENT LLJ FROM THE
W AND S-SW INTO THE W TO S PERIPHERY OF THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPING COMPLEX
COMBINED WITH THE APPARENT RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY/CAPE COULD ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING/MERGING CELLS IN THE APPROXIMATE
REGION STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM BETWEEN HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION TO
CLOSER TO THE TX-LA BORDER PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF JASPER. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY GOOD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO QUICKLY TURN INTO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT. AGAIN, LOOKING AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TXC041-010015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0077.140731T2321Z-140801T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZOS TX-
621 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION AND KYLE FIELD.

I'm not falling for it.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TXZ195>198-212-010030-
GRIMES TX-BURLESON TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
650 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN WALLER...SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES AND SOUTHERN
BURLESON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MILLICAN TO NEAR DIME
BOX...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLEGE STATION...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...WASHINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BURTON...CARMINE...MILLICAN...LAKE SOMERVILLE
DAM...DEANVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...QUARRY...LYONS AND WELLBORN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
659 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-010100-
TRINITY TX-MADISON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-HOUSTON TX-WALKER TX-
659 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOUSTON...EAST CENTRAL
MADISON...CENTRAL WALKER...WEST CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY
AND NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN WITH HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...TRINITY...ONALASKA...POINT BLANK...RIVERSIDE...
SEBASTOPOL...NORTHWESTERN WEST LIVINGSTON...CRABBS PRAIRIE AND
OAKHURST.

Rip76 wrote:I'm not falling for it.

It will probably split in 2 when it gets here. Lol

What a letdown. I'm almost in the bullseye on that rainfall map, but it's all splitting as it approaches my area. I see the sun and an orange glow to my NW. It's a pretty sight, but I'd rather see some rain.

the sunset-looking sky to the northwest was pretty strange indeed, looks like plenty of lightning also

Here comes the Beltway 8 split..

There's an intense line of rain diving south,i hope it can hold together.

The rain is a ghost...invisible! BOO!

Keeping an eye out for backbuilding and slowing down of this line of storms. Lots of lightning to my Northwest right now

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
902 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 859 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM LIVINGSTON TO NORTHWEST
OF SEVEN OAKS TO THE ALABAMA-COUSHATTA RESERVATION. GAUGE REPORTS
OF 3 TO 4 INCHES AND RADAR ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 5 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THE THOSE GAUGES. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...ONALASKA...SEVEN OAKS...ALABAMA-COUSHATTA
RESERVATION...NORTHEASTERN WEST LIVINGSTON...MOSCOW AND LEGGETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

Some backbuilding indeed - boom!

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 950 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER CLEVELAND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...KINGWOOD...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...
WOODBRANCH...PLUM GROVE...NORTH CLEVELAND...LAKE HOUSTON AND
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 951 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WERE INTENSIFYING IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN HUNTSVILLE...CLEVELAND...SHEPHERD...SPLENDORA...PATTON
VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...NEW
WAVERLY...COLDSPRING...PLUM GROVE...GOODRICH...NORTH CLEVELAND...
PORTER HEIGHTS...HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK...NEW CANEY...EVERGREEN...
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...ROMAYOR AND RYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

WOW! Incredible lightning display just north of me!

Possible Hail falling in the storms just North of Atascocita at this time..... Heads up.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1053 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1052 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KINGWOOD...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...KINGWOOD...LAKE HOUSTON...NORTHERN ATASCOCITA AND PORTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

***Quickly becoming a very dangerous flooding situation. Turn around don't drown!!!!***


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1103 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1100 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF THE WOODLAND WITH AREAS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
WITH 3 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY. THE STORMS ARE VERY SLOW MOVING AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR OVER THE AREA. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA IS
EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KINGWOOD...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...PORTER
HEIGHTS...NORTHERN ATASCOCITA...LAKE HOUSTON...NEW CANEY AND
PORTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.