Wx Infinity Forums

cperk wrote:
I'm certainly happy that we appear to be settling into a more typical pattern for our neck of the woods.

I agree. With a W bound upper low traveling across Louisiana toward Texas and multiple rounds of heavy rainfall across the Panhandle and N Central Texas where they need the rain, the pattern is a welcomed change. We will see what later in the week offers regarding increasing rain chance across Central and SE Texas into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast as the boundary sinks S. We cover a vast Region with a lot of folks following across the Southern US and Gulf Coast.

Enjoy the pattern while it lasts. Good chance when El Nino is over, we will return back to our long term drought.

The Upper Low currently nearing the Lake Charles area is expected to fire off some storms E of the Sabine River with daytime heating and march W across a good portion of SE Texas. Areas further N near College Station are a bit drier and under subsidence from the upper ridge across N Texas. We will see what the 12Z suite of guidance offers regarding the sagging frontal boundary that is currently dropping S across the Northern Plains with drier air and temperatures in the lower 60's. That front should be nearing Oklahoma and N Texas on Tuesday setting the stage for increasing showers and storms with the primary threat along and N of where the front eventually stalls being heavy rainfall and some gusty winds and isolated small hail. The European model is the most aggressive with rainfall further S across portions of Central and SE Texas extending eastward into Louisiana Thursday and Friday as a strong piece of upper air energy dives SE from Colorado/Wyoming into N Central Texas.

A little potential rainfall coming in from the East.
It just sees Texas and falls apart before the coast.

jasons wrote:Enjoy the pattern while it lasts. Good chance when El Nino is over, we will return back to our long term drought.

A lot of the rain we have received last fall and even into the beginning of the spring time-frame was before EL Nino. While El Nino definitely helps our region it may be a little premature to say that once El Nino disappears so will the rain.

Thanks Andrew! I sure hope you are right!

Does that line out of Lousiana hold together?

Louisiana*

I sure hope so...we had thunder and wind but no rain earlier today.

Andrew wrote:

jasons wrote:Enjoy the pattern while it lasts. Good chance when El Nino is over, we will return back to our long term drought.

A lot of the rain we have received last fall and even into the beginning of the spring time-frame was before EL Nino. While El Nino definitely helps our region it may be a little premature to say that once El Nino disappears so will the rain.

Some years with El Nino disappearing were quite wet like 1973, 1998, and 2007. Some areas saw 100 inch rainfall total in 1973. Flooding happened in June 1973. 1998 did have a dry spell in spring and summer. Fall was very wet. 2007 was wet, especially spring and summer.

A severe storm is over Katy heading W. The outflow boundary from those storms to the E of Houston is rapidly nearing Liberty and Chambers Counties.

I am getting pea sized hail with frequent CG lightning in NW Harris County.

Poof.

nothing poof like rip76 said

Ptarmigan wrote:

Andrew wrote:

jasons wrote:Enjoy the pattern while it lasts. Good chance when El Nino is over, we will return back to our long term drought.

A lot of the rain we have received last fall and even into the beginning of the spring time-frame was before EL Nino. While El Nino definitely helps our region it may be a little premature to say that once El Nino disappears so will the rain.

Some years with El Nino disappearing were quite wet like 1973, 1998, and 2007. Some areas saw 100 inch rainfall total in 1973. Flooding happened in June 1973. 1998 did have a dry spell in spring and summer. Fall was very wet. 2007 was wet, especially spring and summer.

Thanks for the data ptarmigan. Hopefully we see something similar when El Nino comes and goes.

The upper low that sparked strong storms yesterday is currently located over SE Texas. Additional storms with strong daytime heating should allow for scattered storms development this afternoon into the evening and wane with the loss of strong afternoon heating.

Attention then turns N as the frontal boundary currently located across the Central Plains drops S into Oklahoma and N Texas on Tuesday and eventually pulls up stationary across Central/SE Texas into Louisiana on Wednesday. Moisture begins to pool across the Region ahead of a strong short wave/upper air disturbance that is expected to drop SE Wednesday night into Thursday and approach N Central Texas. Isolated to scatterd storms are expected almost daily throughout the work week with the greatest chance for stronger storms expected Thursday night into Friday. While temperatures will cool off N of I-10, the 850 mb frontal boundary likely will not make it too far S and remain up near the Red River. We will need to monitor for a strong convective complex on Thursday as the strong short wave moves closer to our Region. Thursday into Friday look like the best chance for more widespread rainfall for SE Texas and locations E of the I-35 Corridor.

Morning Update from Jeff:

Significant upper air pattern change underway across the US which will bring a major cool down for much of the Midwest and NE and increased rain chances to SE TX.

Anomalous upper air pattern amplification with strong ridging developing over the US west coast into western Canada and a strong downstream trough over the central and eastern US which mimics more of January than July. The end result is a southward displacement of the now infamous coined term “polar vortex” into SE Canada and a strong push of cold polar air southward into the US. Locally, a westward moving upper level low made landfall over SE TX yesterday evening helping to spark off our daily round of thunderstorms. PWS values remain near 1.8 inches this morning along the coast and expect another day of isolated to scattered late day thunderstorms being driven by heating and meso scale outflow boundaries.

Bigger changes start Tuesday and last through the end of the week as the polar cold front sags into N TX and the upper ridge over OK shifts westward allowing an unstable NW flow aloft to develop. Numerous short waves will ride down the stalling frontal boundary which should line up from the panhandle to WC Louisiana on Wednesday and from near Waco to Lake Charles by Thursday. Expect a very active frontal boundary with several bouts of convection and incoming short waves to produce multiple thunderstorm complexes. Big question is how far south the boundary makes it and when/where outflow boundaries from N TX convection move. Both of these questions are difficult to answer as I suspect the actual frontal boundary will begin to become muddled by the outflow boundaries and end up further south than models are currently forecasting. NW flow aloft also favors MCS development over the high terrain of the front range of the Rockies which then move SE and can possibly arrive into SE TX about 12 hours later. Thursday night into early Friday is starting to key in on the period where the formation of a sustained low level jet could result in long lasting or sustained convection over the region leading to a heavy rainfall threat. Think the severe threat is low at this time with shear on the weak side.

Depending on your model of choice the front may actually in some form move off the coast Friday/Saturday allowing a rare dry air mass to move into the area. Models tend to be a little aggressive this time of year with frontal passages and past experience would strongly argue against such an event….however this is a potent and deep upper trough with 2-3 standard deviations below normal heights so if a front would to clear the coast this is likely a pattern where it might happen.

Andrew wrote:

jasons wrote:Enjoy the pattern while it lasts. Good chance when El Nino is over, we will return back to our long term drought.

A lot of the rain we have received last fall and even into the beginning of the spring time-frame was before EL Nino. While El Nino definitely helps our region it may be a little premature to say that once El Nino disappears so will the rain.

If the PDO can stay positive. Been reading that the current flip may be an anomaly in an overall negative pattern. Only time will tell...

The 12Z GFS has trended a bit 'wetter' across Central and SE Texas into Louisiana and also keeps a generally unsettled pattern going into early next week. The Western Ridge never fully builds back across Texas with the center of the upper ridge firmly anchored across California and Nevada. The 00Z Euro only temporarily attempted to build the upper ridge E into Texas before pushing it back W as a stubborn trough remains across the Eastern half of the United States.

The 12Z Euro continues to advertise a stormy Thursday night into Friday as a robust short wave dives SE in the NW flow aloft. The front is certainly making its self known across Nebraska as it continues to head S toward Kansas. Very pleasant temperatures in the 70's with dew points in the mid to upper 40's. That is not typical mid July weather across the Plains.