July 2014: Stalled Front/ Rain Chnaces To End July

[tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning:

.AVIATION...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR GALVESTON BAY BY MIDAFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK
PANHANDLES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER
DATA...PRECIP WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

[tireman4]

From HGX Cover Page:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/hgx/ ... _full1.png

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/hgx/ ... _full3.png

[cperk]

Tim Heller is still saying no, as of now.


Hottest temps this summer (so far!) coming up this weekend and early next week. Heat Index will hit 100-106° every afternoon. A cool front brings rain late next week....but no cool air.


https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather

Hellers weekend ocm seem to think we will cool down,and the khou mets think so too plus we have good model support.Heller might have to adjust his thinking on this one.

[Katdaddy]

I picked up 1.19" of in League City yesterday. It looks to be a mostly hot and dry day across SE TX with some very isolate thundershowers. Models still advertise below normal temps across the Central US with increasing rain chances next week for SE TX. The tropics may awaken during the next 5 days as the NHC gives the E Atlantic tropical 40% chance of development.

[tireman4]

Tim Heller is still saying no, as of now.


Hottest temps this summer (so far!) coming up this weekend and early next week. Heat Index will hit 100-106° every afternoon. A cool front brings rain late next week....but no cool air.


https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather

Hellers weekend ocm seem to think we will cool down,and the khou mets think so too plus we have good model support.Heller might have to adjust his thinking on this one.

Yep, my thinking too. HGX thinks things might cool down too. We shall see.

[unome]

forecast for next Friday is back up in the 90s :(

here's a Houston 7-day http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/ROC/roc7 ... 1852115989

I'm ready for summer to be over...

[tireman4]

Be patient Unome. Our ( Fall and Winter lovers) time is coming. The sun is slowly loosening its grip on the north (Canada) and cooler temperatures will prevail. HGX AFD for the afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 43

&&

[Ptarmigan]

Cold front is moving closer to Houston.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 272355
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014


.AVIATION...
CU DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SEABREEZE JUST MOVED
THROUGH IAH WITH GUSTY SE WINDS. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS
TO RELAX THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR CLL AND MAYBE
EVEN UTS. TOMORROW MORNING WSW TO SW WINDS GRADUALLY BACK WITH
HEATING. SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH THAT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SHRA. MID SUMMER COLD FRONT GETS A SOUTHWARD NUDGE LATE
MONDAY AND SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BUT NW-N FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE EVENING MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS AS PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
..SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 97 74 94 74 / 10 20 30 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 96 77 95 77 / 10 10 30 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 92 81 89 81 / 10 10 20 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45

[tireman4]

The HGX AFD this morning:


.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY WILL BOUNCE AROUND 1 MILE TO 1/4 MILE IN MOST AREAS SW
OF HOUSTON DUE TO FOG SO ISSED DENSE FOG ADVSIORY FOR NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN ANTONIO TO LA GRANGE
IS SPREADING EASTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AT CLL EARLY
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH VSBYS VARIABLE AT SGR AND LBX. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
AND LIGHT TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SAGS
SOUTHWARD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR CLL/UTS
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-
SOUTH ACROSS S PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED.
GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOWS A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OF 2 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND RED RIVER
REGION OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
OTHER SCT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS S OK. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
500MB FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO N TX INTO THE N GULF. HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUGGEST A BROADER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. THAT
SAID DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST BACK TO THE S PLAINS. THINK RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN FORECAST. THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER SO IT WILL TAKE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THEN AGAIN
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO TX AS IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY INTO TUE.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH QPF FROM CONVECTION SO COULD JUST
LEAVE 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE. THINK IT WILL BE BETTER TO
JUST LEAVE THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CHANCE OF THE
FRONT PUSHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL MAINLY
JUST AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD
BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED
SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM
COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP
OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP
DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN
CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN
THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT
SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR
588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF
THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FRONT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 76 96 76 96 / 20 30 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 30 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 81 91 80 91 / 10 20 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

[Rip76]

Well that's a little depressing.

[tireman4]

The HGX AFD this afternoon:

FXUS64 KHGX 281752
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE RURAL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 17Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 09Z. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR KIAH ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
DUE MAINLY TO THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...INITIALIZING WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING NWP SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS A PRETTY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND HAVE
IT SLOWLY SAGGING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE GRIP OVER
US AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREA CONVECTION
WOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM MORE MESO-DRIVEN PROCESSES
SUCH AS PINEY WOODS THUNDERSTORM COOL POOL/GUST FRONT TRIGGERS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
TO SLIP INTO THE CWA TOMORROW SO...IF ANY UPSTREAM S/W DISTURBANCE
DOES TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
..RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE RISE. AN EARLY DAY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE...WITH A JUST A SCATTERED CU DECK...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH TODAY`S INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...
LOW 90S AT THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN FALL WITHIN
THAT 99 TO 104 F RANGE. 31


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Katdaddy]

Outflow boundaries, cold pools, and meso/micro scale events will define SE TX weather the rest of the week which equates to the most difficult forecasts or forecasts. Stationary boundary over Central TX firing thunderstorms this evening with one or two isolated sea breeze showers along the Upper TX Coast.

[Ptarmigan]

Since we had a cooler than normal spring and there is a correlation between cooler springs and major hurricane making landfall on Southeast Texas.

[Andrew]

All three models (NAM, GFS, and EURO) show the frontal boundary stalling somewhere across SE Texas. Both the GFS and EURO show some sort of MCS traveling SE across Texas and into parts of SE Texas. At this point it looks like Thursday or Friday will provide the best opportunity of rain. Similar to last event, the NE counties of SE Texas will have the best chance of seeing rain. The positive thing this time around though is a distinct boundary being draped farther south across SE Texas. If that plays out we could have another flooding issue for those that see rain. Storm motion will be slow so where it rains it will probably rain a lot. Time will tell.

[sambucol]

Since we had a cooler than normal spring and there is a correlation between cooler springs and major hurricane making landfall on Southeast Texas.

Thanks for bit of sunshine

[Paul Robison]

Since we had a cooler than normal spring and there is a correlation between cooler springs and major hurricane making landfall on Southeast Texas.

What does the NHC have to say about that, Ptarmigan?

[Katdaddy]

A stationary frontal boundary over N portions of SE TX with an outflow boundary over the Central SE TX counties will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorms today. Front to push through SE TX and stall along the coastal area later this week and into the weekend leading to rain and thunderstorm chances.

[unome]

Since we had a cooler than normal spring and there is a correlation between cooler springs and major hurricane making landfall on Southeast Texas.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/correlation.png

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

After the hottest day of the year yesterday (99 at IAH) cooler and wetter weather appears for the rest of the week as yet another unusually strong cool front pushes into the Gulf coast region.

 

Early this morning a complex of thunderstorms that developed over N LA yesterday has moved southward and off the western LA coast this morning. A weak outflow boundary has moved westward from this complex and extends roughly from Huntsville to High Island, but is difficult to define given the land breeze in progress and another weak boundary that has sunk southward overnight. Using dewpoints across the region there appears to be a boundary from about College Station to Conroe to Liberty. Upper level ridge that has been over the region for the past few days will slowly rebuild westward and allow lowering heights across the region starting today. With all the boundaries in place coupled with strong surface heating this morning expect showers and thunderstorms to erupt by early afternoon. Upper level steering flow has become N across the region which will help drive storms to the S and SSW. Main threat will be heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty winds.

 

Weak front will wash out across the region on Wednesday with rain chances falling to 30% or less and mainly driven by the seabreeze and any weak boundaries. While the boundary washes out over our region a strong short wave will round the top of the ridge over UT and move southward into the plains and toward TX late Thursday. This short wave will push a cold front toward the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Air mass south of this front will become unstable and very moist as moisture pools. PWS rise to near 2.0-2.2 inches Thursday into Friday. Expect good storm coverage Thursday afternoon and evening and again just about any time on Friday as the front slowly pushes across the region. Models bring the boundary all the way to the coast and even offshore by late Friday allowing a rare taste of dry air to build into SE TX especially north of I-10. With the frontal boundary over the coastal waters expect showers and thunderstorms to continue through the weekend from the beaches offshore. Should the front stall further to the north rain chances will need to be increased along and south of US 59.

 

93L:

A strong tropical wave accompanied by a weak area of low pressure is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Visible satellite images show a fairly good low level cloud pattern with banding features especially to the west and south of the center of circulation. Overall convection is weak to moderate at best and this is likely due to dry air surrounding the system to the north and northeast. Wind shear is fairly weak which is supported by the favorable outflow pattern being shown in satellite images.

 

93L is moving westward and this motion should continue with the development of the system into a tropical cyclone (depression) in the next 24-36 hours. Forecast track guidance is in close clustering through the next 4-5 days and brings the system close to the NE Caribbean Islands. Solutions between days 6-7 begin the diverge with tracks extending from well east of the Bahamas to the northern Caribbean Sea. The GFS ensembles are also showing a fairly large spread at 240 hours from near the western tip of Cuba to near Bermuda. This spread appears to be the result of the handling of the deep layer trough on the US east coast and if the approaching tropical system is captured by this trough or instead by the building high pressure behind the trough. Conditions appear favorable in the near term for development as supported by most model guidance, but after 96 hours upper level winds and intrusions of dry air may result in some weakening as shown by the HWRF and GFDL hurricane forecasting guidance.  

 

 




 

 

[Andrew]

Looks like some training possibly just North of Downtown Houston. Mean flow is almost parallel with the line at 5-10kts. Outflow dominated so we will see how long it stays together. Heavy rain rates for wherever it does fall. Won't take long to puddle on roads.