Wx Infinity Forums

OK, let's start the discussion for July here. Hoping for some of Mother Nature's "fireworks" for the Fourth of July in the form of rain, rain, rain!

Portastorm wrote:OK, let's start the discussion for July here. Hoping for some of Mother Nature's "fireworks" for the Fourth of July in the form of rain, rain, rain!

I used to live in Buda, TX. I take it the area is still in drought mode?

would love a good old fashion storm on 4th of july!!! missed the last two storms at my house i was at work!

kayci wrote:I used to live in Buda, TX. I take it the area is still in drought mode?

Actually, and for the moment, the drought conditions in the Austin metropolitan area (including Buda) have improved considerably in the last few months. Here is a map of the state with the latest information ... you'll see that the Austin area is now considered just "abnormally dry."

why would anyone want rain on the 4th? I mean it's the 4th!

Outside with friends and family, BBQ, fireworks and fun. I can't wrap my mind around wanting rain on the 4th. Even if you need some rain, can't you wait a couple of days?

The general theme via the medium and extended range guidance suggests a generally wet and cooler regime will establish across our Region. Several things stand out in the latest Climate Prediction Center Update. One, we see the influence of developing tropical activity across the Eastern Pasic Basin which could be rather impressive with multiple tropical cyclones developing over the next few weeks. The annual monsoon season looks very likely across the Desert SW whish has suffered over the past several years without any meaningful tropical enhanced moisture and drought feedback. Two, the pattern does suggest that the Western Atlantic Basin could offer bouts of tropical moisture across Texas as the monsoonal trough lifts N along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone and easterly tropical waves enter the Western Gulf with a very rich tropical air mass establishing. What we have seen so far this late Spring and early Summer period is a much different pattern with abundant heavy rainfall East of the Continental Divide where a multi year drought is slowly being replace with a surplus of rain and soil moisture. If this pattern continues well into July, I believe we may see temperature struggle to get much above an occasional mid 90's with plenty of opportunities to add rainfall across the Region.

Great graphics!

I will take cooler and wetter! Bring on the rain and no 100 degree temps!

Morning Update from Jeff:

Return of ridging aloft will attempt to dry out the area today-Wednesday.

Mid level weakness or break in the sub-tropical ridges to the west and east is closing this morning as the sub-tropical high over the Atlantic (known as the Bermuda ridge) is building westward. Radar this morning shows significantly less activity than the past few days and expect only 20-30% of coverage this afternoon of quickly moving northward showers. Pressure gradient has increased over the last 24 hours and surface winds are already blowing in the 10-15mph range and will increase into the 15-25mph range this afternoon which will preclude a defined seabreeze boundary.

Ridging will remain in place through the early to mid part of this week with only isolated showers/thunderstorms possible each afternoon.

Changes appear again by mid to late week as once again a weakness in the sub-tropical high develops near/over eastern TX. This will allow cooler mid level temperatures which will reduce capping aloft and an increase in tropical moisture around July 3rd. There is also the potential for a weak frontal boundary to sag into the state from the NNE adding an additional trigger for rainfall. Thinking rain chances will be increasing Thursday/Friday and on into the weekend next week.

91L:
A small area of low pressure that drifted off the SC coast yesterday morning has continued to sink southward and if now located roughly 230 miles E of Jacksonville, FL. Visible satellite images and coastal radars from Jacksonville and Melbourne FL indicate a surface circulation is present, but lacks overall organization and deep convection. While dry air is lurking to the NE of the system, the circulation is currently located within a fairly moist environment, but is facing 10-20kts of northerly wind shear.

Global forecast models are not in great agreement on development in the near term and support a better chance of development in the longer term (3-5 days). Most guidance agrees the system will drift S to SSW and near the FL east coast this week and then turn sharply N and NE ahead of a trough approaching the US east coast by the middle to end of this week. Global/hurricane forecasting models show little to no development as the system nears FL, but show varying degrees of development as the system turns NE along the SE US coast and this is most likely due to the decrease in upper level wind shear. The ECMWF is by far the strongest showing a near hurricane off NC late this week while the GFS is the weakest showing nearly no development. Short term impacts will be aimed at FL and in the longer term possibly along the SE US coast depending on how much development and how close to the coast the system may track.

The overnight guidance suggests a slight weakness develops across the Eastern half of Texas and increasing moisture returning middle week into the 4th of July Holiday period. A frontal boundary looks to sag S across N Texas which may spark a couple of cconvective complexes (MCS) that may slide S across areas mainly E of the I-35 Corridor. The best chance of rain appears to increase beginning Thursday and extend into the Holiday weekend. Early morning Coastal showers should move inland and fire off showers and storms on Friday, Saturday and Sunday bring mostly daytime rain chances. We will need to watch for a chance of organized convective complexes rounding the upper ridge to our W as increasing deep tropical moisture from a tropical disturbance along the Pacific Coast of Mexico gets pulled NE across Eastern Arizona/New Mexico and drops S from The Panhandle and Oklahoma each day.Those with travel plans to the Mid Atlantic Coast may need to monitor for a potential Tropical Cyclone impacting South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland as it may pass very close to the Atlantic Coast and could reach near Hurricane strength before heading NE late this coming weekend toward the Canadian Maritime area. Across the Gulf, tropical activity is not expected for the next week.

The 12Z GEFS individual members are suggesting a chance of showers and storms developing Thursday afternoon into Friday evening.

My yard kind of needs the rain! I hope we get some of the rain goodness even if it's on the Fourth.

40% on Thursday & Friday hmmm? Can I ask for a temporary dome of high pressure for Friday only?

We are getting one heck of a storm in NW Harris County with frequent cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rainfall. So much for that dry forecast predicted today.

Dang, that tiny cell sure turned into a full-blown thunderstorm for sure. Pretty amazing.

That's how I felt last week on Monday - it wasn't supposed to get wet yet and it dumped.

jasons wrote:Dang, that tiny cell sure turned into a full-blown thunderstorm for sure. Pretty amazing.

That's how I felt last week on Monday - it wasn't supposed to get wet yet and it dumped.

I picked up an inch. That's more rain than last week. My Koi pond is full again!

srainhoutx wrote:We are getting one heck of a storm in NW Harris County with frequent cloud to ground lightning and very heavy rainfall. So much for that dry forecast predicted today.

Sounds like typical Houston summer. Not like in 2011 and 2013. Summer 2012 was quite wet.

Morning Update from Jeff:

A few strong thunderstorms late yesterday born out of the urban heat along the seabreeze packed a big punch.

Similar set up today with convective trigger temperatures in the low to mid 90’s and just enough moisture to produce a few thunderstorms either along the inland moving seabreeze boundary or from any boundaries possibly approaching our area from the current activity to our NW and N. Given fairly decent CAPE values some of this activity could be strong or briefly severe as seen over NW Harris County late yesterday.

Better storm chances for Thursday and especially Friday as a weak frontal boundary sags into the locations NE of the area becoming the breeding ground for afternoon storm development that will sweep south and southwest into the region. Any weak disturbance working on this super-heated air mass with temperatures in the low to mid 90’s will result in fairly explosive thunderstorm development. The local seabreeze will also be an added focus and with deeper moisture and weaker ridging aloft think rain chances of 40% on Thursday and 50% on Friday look on track.

Once again over the next 48-72 hours storms could become strong or even severe given the good amounts of instability producing briefing damaging winds or hail along with large amounts of cloud to ground lightning as seen yesterday. Low level boundary collisions could result in brief locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches in a short amount of time.

Current thinking is that the most active day will be Friday especially in the afternoon and possibly into the evening hours. Loss of heating should result in storms weakening near/shortly after dark, but with outdoor activities planned on Friday persons should be aware of the threat for rapidly changing weather conditions and the dangers posed…mainly from strong winds, hail, and cloud to ground lightning.

In looking over the 12z GFS and Euro model runs, it seems like both models suggest the monsoonal trough will be moving further north next week from the deep tropics and encroaching into south Texas. Perhaps we could be looking at a "wetter" period again next week.

Nice pop-up thunderstorm in 77089.