July 2014: Stalled Front/ Rain Chnaces To End July

[srainhoutx]

Jeff sent out a 4th of July Update this morning. Everyone stay safe and enjoy the long Holiday Weekend...

Another day of strong thunderstorms with frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall.

Little change in the air mass from yesterday with PWS at/near 2.0 inches and near surface boundary from roughly College Station to Beaumont. Once temperatures reach 88-90 (1100-100) expect storms to quickly develop. Meso models are favoring areas west of I-45 for development today which then moves S to SSW across much of the area this afternoon.

Mid level steering flow is very weak so storm motions will be on the order of 5-10mph which equates to locally excessive rainfall. Storms on the west side of Houston yesterday put down a solid 2-3 inches in an hour leading to deep street flooding. Storms will be highly driven on outflow boundaries as seen yesterday and may produce an isolated severe wind gust.

Should see activity begin to weaken in the 500-700pm time period and most rainfall should end by 900pm except for a few isolated areas where showers may linger to after dark.

Should see another round on Saturday with less coverage as the weak frontal boundary begins to wash out over the area.

Note: The landfall of 100mph category 2 Hurricane Arthur last night in eastern NC was the strongest US landfalling hurricane since Hurricane Ike (2008)

[Karen]

Do you think the south side will see any storms. They seem to die just south of downtown.

[unome]

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... 42248.html

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/04/14 2248Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2230Z JS
.
LOCATION...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH MERGING CELLS/COLLIDING
BOUNDARIES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2300-0200Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWS MCV JUST WEST OF AUSTIN
IN S CENT TX AND A SECOND NORTH OF KBPT IN SE TX. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY PROMINENT ALONG THE S PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
MOST MCV AND TO THE W AND SW OF THE EASTERN MCV WITH THE ADDED PRESENCE
OF NORTHWARD MOVING GULF BREEZE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, EXPECT
NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS TO OCCUR WHERE THE GULF BREEZE INTERSECTS OUTFLOW
FROM SMALL COLD POOLS CREATED BY ACTIVITY NEAR THE MCV'S. THE THREAT
AREA ENCOMPASSES A BROAD REGION STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM JUST EAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR HOUSTON. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-3" IN A 1-2 HOUR
TIME PERIOD ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE 3-4" RANGE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE PROFILES PRESENT AND THE BRIEFLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY
AS THE BOUNDARIES/CELLS MERGE. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT THIS SITUATION
TO LAST MORE THAN A 1-2 HOUR TIME PERIOD IN ANY GIVEN SPOT WHICH SHOULD
HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT GIVEN THE APPARENT HIGH FFG VALUES IN
THIS REGION.
.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
.
FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
.
LAT...LON 3042 9497 2958 9503 2887 9629 2911 9849 2990 9828

.
NNNN
No Graphics Available

[cperk]

Just got a nice downpour here in Richmond.Have a great 4th everybody.

[BlueJay]

No rain for us today.

I think it is odd that on July 4, 2014 the high temp at my house was only 88 F and a very cool low of 70F. Nice but odd.

I hear the bombs bursting in air... Happy birthday USA!

[mckinne63]

Winds really picked up late yesterday afternoon here in Stafford, just before we going to fire up the bbq. We got some rain, not as much as I thought we would've with all the action going on. Ended up doing the steaks inside.

Currently hearing some rumblings of thunder. Would welcome some rain to help fill up the pool we had to drain because of algae issues.

[djjordan]

Lots of thunder in the past hour but it appears these storms are setting up just to my east and northeast at this time.

[djjordan]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 231 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
HARRIS...SOUTHEASTERN WALLER...AND NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND
COUNTIES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ONE RAIN GUAGE INDICATES THAT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN AS LITTLE AS 15 MINUTES...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...ELDRIDGE / WEST
OAKS...SPRING BRANCH WEST...MISSION BEND...ADDICKS PARK TEN...
SPRING BRANCH NORTH...FULSHEAR...CINCO RANCH...CARVERDALE...BRIAR
FOREST...ALIEF...CYPRESS...WESTWOOD...WESTBRANCH...WESTCHASE...
WILLOWBROOK...FOUR CORNERS AND BRAYS OAKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[srainhoutx]

Nearing 3 inches in the rain gauge over the past 2 hours and yet another cell moving in from my E.

[djjordan]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 333 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL
VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...GREATER
HEIGHTS...MEMORIAL PARK...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...SPRING BRANCH
WEST...ALDINE...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER GREENSPOINT...ADDICKS PARK
TEN...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...SPRING...NORTHEASTERN ELDRIDGE /
WEST OAKS...HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE AND HIDDEN VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

[djjordan]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 335 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WESTERN SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...SEALY...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...PECAN GROVE...NEEDVILLE...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...
FULSHEAR...PLEAK...SIMONTON...FAIRCHILDS...BEASLEY...KENDLETON...
ORCHARD...CUMINGS...GREATWOOD AND NEW TERRITORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[Texaspirate11]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

TXZ213-214-226-227-235>238-061930-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A FUNNEL CLOUD HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
ANGLETON AND WITH A TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE MORE ARE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE TIME THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS DON`T MAKE CONTACT WITH THE
GROUND AND ARE WEAK. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD DOES TOUCH THE GROUND AND
BECOME A WATER SPOUT AND/OR TORNADO DO NOT APPROACH THEM. EVEN
THOUGH THESE ARE USUALLY WEAK THEY CAN STILL DO DAMAGE.

[BlueJay]

Hello weather people!

I'm currently enjoying some rumbling thunder but no rain...yet.

I really am liking this summer so far!

[BlueJay]

Sitting outside on the patio watching the rain....so nice!

Is it football season?

[Ptarmigan]

We have yet to reach 95 in Houston. The summer of 1898 never reached 95. Even the summer of the late 1970s reached 95.

[unome]

WPC's QPF graphic looks much less promising than our local forecast currently shows - I'm hoping for pop-up showers :(

[srainhoutx]

The Global operational and ensemble guidance is suggesting a change is brewing in the medium to long range. After a temporary building of an upper Ridge across Oklahoma, a fairly big pattern change develops next week. A stout Ridge develops across the Pacific NW and Western Canada while a deep trough is carved out across the Great Plains into the Eastern half of Canada and the United States. A robust 500mb Upper Low much like our old friend of this past winter’s Polar Vortex is expected to develop near Hudson Bay and just N of the Great Lakes. There are even indications that a polar front albeit not like a typical winter cold front will drop S and usher in much cooler air E of the Continental Divide. The front appears to hang up across potions of Texas and the central Gulf Coast allowing deep tropical moisture to pool across the Region. If the front does stall, it may well serve as a focal point for bouts of rainfall and daily storm development. It is also noteworthy that a robust tropical wave is crossing the Atlantic although SAL is inhibiting any development at this time. Conditions may become a bit more favorable across the Western Caribbean in about 7-10 days and eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico. We will see.

[sau27]

I had an interesting, albeit a little scary, experience yesterday afternoon that I thought I'd share with my weather-geek friends. Around 6 yesterday afternoon I went outside to take my brand new puppy to the bathroom. I could hear a couple rumbles of thunder way off in the distance but nothing looked too threatening where I was (I know, as weather nerd I should have known better). Right when puppy was finishing up I heard a sudden hissing sound followed by a very bright flash of lightning and instant deafening thunder. Both me and the dog jumped out of our skin and ran inside. I didn't see where the bolt actually hit as I was looking down at the dog but that pre-bolt hissing was one of the most interesting and scary weather experiences I have ever had.

[BlueJay]

Glad you and your new pup are OK, sau27! Very scary!

[Portastorm]

Interesting little snippet from this morning's forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio which supports srainhoutx's comments from yesterday:

BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE EASTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
FORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK WEST ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO TEXAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DROPS THE FRONT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH
A DRY FORECAST.