July 2014: Stalled Front/ Rain Chnaces To End July

[redneckweather]

Convection has hit a brick wall in Montgomery County.

[unome]

it's nice to even have the cloud cover to keep the temps down

[kayci]

VERY cool radars unome!

[Rip76]

I don't even need to say it do I?

[Portastorm]

Any chance y'all could nudge some of that nice convection to the west ... to like ... uh ... Travis County?!

We had rain approaching the metro area right before lunch and it fizzled out entirely. Talk about a buzzkill.

[BlueJay]

OK... I am very grateful that we got 0.05 inches of the wet goodness today!

[unome]

our current temp of 74 at 1:30 PM in mid-July is about what we've have for a daily low temp over the last month

rain would be nice, but I refuse to complain about that

[kayci]

No rain for Kayci

[Kludge]

Any chance y'all could nudge some of that nice convection to the west ... to like ... uh ... Travis County?!

We had rain approaching the metro area right before lunch and it fizzled out entirely. Talk about a buzzkill.

If you need another buzz, take a quick look to your north right now...

[Portastorm]

LOL ... yeah, I see that, Kludge! I feel like a railbird at a thoroughbred track yelling "come on ... come on, baby ... come on south!"

[srainhoutx]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT COLLEGE STATION...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.06 INCHES WAS SET AT COLLEGE STATION TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.00 INCH SET IN 1983.

[Ptarmigan]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT COLLEGE STATION...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.06 INCHES WAS SET AT COLLEGE STATION TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.00 INCH SET IN 1983.

Interesting the previous record happened in 1983. Later that year, Alicia paid a visit.

[Ptarmigan]

I always wonder why when a storm is approaching, it fizzles out and than forms again after it passes.

[Andrew]

Current model consensus shows quite the spread. Starting with the NAM, the shortwave that is currently located in the Montana area will come through central Oklahoma a lot less amplified than both the GFS and Euro are showing. Timing also seems to be an issue resulting in a less significant (and farther north) MCS through North Texas tomorrow evening. Downstream a couple of vort maxes (area where vorticity is highest causing rotation in the atmosphere) try to develop from the Southeastward moving shortwave, they are not nearly as defined as the GFS and Euro.

Moving on to the GFS, it is the most bullish out of all three models in amplification of the trough and vort maxes across NW Texas. Similar to the Euro, it develops a surface low in NW Texas but location and intensity of the most northern vort max will determine the movement of tomorrow night's MCS. As of now the GFS wants to create a very strong MCS moving across the Texas Panhandle into the DFW area and points north. Rainfall rates are pretty extreme at certain points in the MCS progression with estimates of up to 4inches. I suspect convective feedback is an issue for the GFS and it's having trouble handling the projected MCS.

Finally the Euro shows a nice middle ground between the NAM and GFS. The synoptic setup is similar to that of the GFS and looks realistic. The vort maxes that develop aren't overwhelming but provide enough rotation and moisture to maintain a MCS. The weak surface low from the EURO is furthest west and that pushes the MCS furhter Southwest, effecting more of central Texas.

As for SE and central Texas, progression of the MCS will be key to how far south the cold front makes it. Right now I would throw out the NAM solution and focus on a blend of the GFS and Euro. Both stall the boundary across the northern counties of SE Texas, creating multiple days of scattered storms. What will be noteworthy to watch, is how the southern vort max progresses. Both the GFS and NAM suggest it could track South then East across much of Texas. With PWs already in the 2+ range, this additional organization could spark organized storms throughout the area. Either way rain chances should increase towards the end of the workweek with locally heavy rainfall.

[redneckweather]

Either way rain chances should increase towards the end of the workweek with locally heavy rainfall.

Dang Andrew, you typed out a thesis but all you really had to do was type out this one sentence.

[srainhoutx]

Andrew is nearing his senior year at A & M and will be our next Pro Met redneckweather. He is polishing his forecasting abilities rather well, isn't he? Nice analysis Andrew. Higher PW's are draped across he SW zones this morning and should surge N tomorrow and near 2.25 Across all of SE Texas. The trough has dug all the way S to Coastal Louisiana and the short wave that will bring our better chances of more wide spread rain is dropping SE from Montana this morning. The SPC is mentioning that they may need to increase the Severe Weather potential on Friday to a Slight Risk across SE Texas/SW Louisiana as the short wave shears out over N Texas and pieces of upper level energy drop SE. Rain chances may need to be increased this weekend as well as the Western Ridge may not push back far enough E to dry us out. The ensembles had been suggesting showers and storms may linger into next week. That remains to be seen.

[unome]

great model analysis Andrew, as always

Current model consensus shows quite the spread. Starting with the NAM, the shortwave that is currently located in the Montana area will come through central Oklahoma a lot less amplified than both the GFS and Euro are showing. Timing also seems to be an issue resulting in a less significant (and farther north) MCS through North Texas tomorrow evening. Downstream a couple of vort maxes (area where vorticity is highest causing rotation in the atmosphere) try to develop from the Southeastward moving shortwave, they are not nearly as defined as the GFS and Euro.

Moving on to the GFS, it is the most bullish out of all three models in amplification of the trough and vort maxes across NW Texas. Similar to the Euro, it develops a surface low in NW Texas but location and intensity of the most northern vort max will determine the movement of tomorrow night's MCS. As of now the GFS wants to create a very strong MCS moving across the Texas Panhandle into the DFW area and points north. Rainfall rates are pretty extreme at certain points in the MCS progression with estimates of up to 4inches. I suspect convective feedback is an issue for the GFS and it's having trouble handling the projected MCS.

Finally the Euro shows a nice middle ground between the NAM and GFS. The synoptic setup is similar to that of the GFS and looks realistic. The vort maxes that develop aren't overwhelming but provide enough rotation and moisture to maintain a MCS. The weak surface low from the EURO is furthest west and that pushes the MCS furhter Southwest, effecting more of central Texas.

As for SE and central Texas, progression of the MCS will be key to how far south the cold front makes it. Right now I would throw out the NAM solution and focus on a blend of the GFS and Euro. Both stall the boundary across the northern counties of SE Texas, creating multiple days of scattered storms. What will be noteworthy to watch, is how the southern vort max progresses. Both the GFS and NAM suggest it could track South then East across much of Texas. With PWs already in the 2+ range, this additional organization could spark organized storms throughout the area. Either way rain chances should increase towards the end of the workweek with locally heavy rainfall.

[jasons2k]

Andrew, thanks so much for that thorough analysis. Lots to consider in the next few days, that's for sure. I received .13" yesterday.

[tireman4]

Andrew, again from me as well, great analysis. You will make a great met.

[Andrew]

Thanks guys. Hopefully this afternoon we can have a better idea on which solution is going to ultimately win out. The gfs and the Tx Tech WRF both suggest activity could spread south from the MCS development over north Texas on Thursday and could provide additional chances of rain. As stated by HGX, best chances of rain will be in the NE counties, closer to the disturbances tracking East. We already have flash flood watches in the panhandle region and North Texas so it goes without saying where you receive rain, it will be heavy.