Rip76 wrote:I did notice "admin11" in red, at the bottom earlier.
Dr. Neil?
That was KHOU folks working on things Rip. I did ask Dr. Neil to join us at some point, but he is enjoying retirement after all and plays golf 3 days a week. I'll put another 'bug in his ear' about it though...
As he should be, Doc certainly earned his retirement.
It looks like things could become rather busy in the weather department as we end July and start a new month tomorrow. High PW's and CAPE between 2000 to 3000 in summertime tends to suggest possible severe storms and very heavy rainfall rates. Folks back to the Austin Area and on E keep an eye to the skies this afternoon and folks along and S of I-10 really need to monitor developments overnight into tomorrow for the August 1st morning commute. Morning Update from Jeff:
Another rare July cool front heading for the region this morning with the threat for excessive rainfall increasing late today into early Friday.
Weak cool front was located across N TX this morning with a pre-frontal trough located near a Austin to Huntsville line. Fairly widespread development of thunderstorms over N TX overnight has resulted in some flooding due to cell training and slow storm motions. Front will sag southward today and move into SE TX late this afternoon. Surface heating will produce an unstable air mass by early afternoon and expect thunderstorms to develop starting as early as noon in some areas (especially north and east) initially along the seabreeze and outflow boundaries from previous storms and then along the front itself.
Meso and global models are in fair agreement on a band or line of thunderstorms developing from near Centerville to Austin early this evening and sagging southward to near US 59 by midnight. Air mass this afternoon becomes extremely moist with PWS pushing 2.0-2.3 inches and nearly a saturated profile through much of the column suggesting very efficient rainfall production. Front and storms appears to really slow in the midnight to 600am time period between I-10 and the coast and this is the location where we could get into some flooding problems overnight. Extremely high moisture levels will produce very high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches or greater. Meso model depiction of cell training across the southern half of the region tonight does raise some concern, but it is impossible to determine where this may happen at this point. Activity will become highly meso scale driven on outflow boundaries and past experience with such events tends to focus the heavy rainfall a bit southward from where the actual frontal boundary may lie…in this case closer to the coast.
Models are not overly confident on where the actual front will stall Friday into the weekend with some offshore and others near the coast or just inland. Think the boundary will be close enough to continue rain chances especially near the coast for much of the weekend and this could also pile totals up in these areas. Luckily the areas have missed out on the past few rain events and could stand several inches before getting into flooding problems.
Upper level pattern shears out the upper trough along the Gulf coast next week leaving a pronounced weakness in the height field suggesting daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze front.
93L:
After being nearly completely void of any convection last evening, a few thunderstorms have managed to develop on the southern flank of a well defined low level circulation about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to struggle in the face of a large mass of dry sinking air that ejected out of Africa several days ago known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). This unfavorable dry air has become ingested into the northern flank of the circulation resulting in almost no convection in this part of the system, while moisture from the ITCZ to the south has become helping to produce sporadic convection in that section of the circulation. Intensity forecasting models have thus far done a poor job and have been overly aggressive in developing the system and given the current and forecasted hostile conditions across the Atlantic basin any development is expected to be slow. With that said only a slight increase in thunderstorms activity near the center would likely bring the system to depression or storm status requiring warnings to be issued quickly for the Windward and Leeward Is. A USAF WC-130 will fly the system this afternoon as it now falls within range of the aircraft.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
SUMMARY...A SLOW-MOVING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES. CONVECTION REGENERATING ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS
BECOME A NEW FOCUS FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH WARNINGS BEING ISSUED
BY THE LOCAL WFOS. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH ~15Z.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE RED RIVER. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
IGNITING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY WITH WITH
REGENERATION OCCURRING IN A REGION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
BASED ON THE 11Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-MB
INFLOW WAS NOTED FROM THE KFWS WSR-88D WITH VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE
STORM-SCALE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND DIMINISH
AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CARRY
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.
THE 10Z HRRR THUS FAR HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING ACTIVITY THE BEST
WITH EVEN HINTS AT THE REGENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE RED
RIVER. IT AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO OF MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX FOR 2 TO 3 MORE HOURS SO THIS MPD ISSUANCE
WILL ONLY BE ISSUED THROUGH 15Z AT THE LATEST.
RUBIN-OSTER
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I am starting to see a report or two up in the Bryan/College Station area of some isolated flooding of the typical low spots. The higher PW's in this tropical airmass suggest 2-3 inch amounts per hour are not out of the question as the area of storms move SE. Keep an aye on that boundary collision across Waller, Montgomery and Walker Counties in a bit.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/14 2305Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2245Z JS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MESOANALYSIS AND TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT OVER SE TX.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2300-0600Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AT THIS TIME, DESPITE PRONOUNCED IR/VIS SIGNATURE
WITH PATCH OF CONVECTION OVER E CENT TX, PROPAGATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO OFFSET ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
POTENTIAL SIGNALS FOR ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR UPWIND REDEVELOPMENT AND PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING TO OCCUR. CURRENT
ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY/CAPE
RESIDING TO THE S AND SW OF THE PRESENT ACTIVITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING IN THE MID TO HIGH 70'S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2". ADDITIONALLY, VISIBLE ANIMATION AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE
GULF BREEZE MOVING NORTHWARD AND INLAND OVER SE TX/SW LA INTO ENVIRONMENT
OF VERY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. OBJECTIVELY DERIVED ANALYSIS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX CENTERED NEAR AND TO THE S
OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION WITH MORE SUPPORT FOR THIS REGION FROM
ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS/TRENDS, BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION TO SLOW DOWN ITS CURRENTLY STEADY
S-SE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND ENHANCE/CONGEAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH WHAT'S
LEFT OF INLAND MOVING GULF BREEZE. AS THIS OCCURS, CONFLUENT LLJ FROM THE
W AND S-SW INTO THE W TO S PERIPHERY OF THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPING COMPLEX
COMBINED WITH THE APPARENT RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY/CAPE COULD ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING/MERGING CELLS IN THE APPROXIMATE
REGION STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM BETWEEN HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION TO
CLOSER TO THE TX-LA BORDER PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF JASPER. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY GOOD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO QUICKLY TURN INTO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT. AGAIN, LOOKING AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION AND KYLE FIELD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN WALLER...SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES AND SOUTHERN
BURLESON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...
AT 649 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MILLICAN TO NEAR DIME
BOX...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLEGE STATION...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...WASHINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BURTON...CARMINE...MILLICAN...LAKE SOMERVILLE
DAM...DEANVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...QUARRY...LYONS AND WELLBORN.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOUSTON...EAST CENTRAL
MADISON...CENTRAL WALKER...WEST CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY
AND NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...
AT 658 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
HEAVY RAIN WITH HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...TRINITY...ONALASKA...POINT BLANK...RIVERSIDE...
SEBASTOPOL...NORTHWESTERN WEST LIVINGSTON...CRABBS PRAIRIE AND
OAKHURST.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
What a letdown. I'm almost in the bullseye on that rainfall map, but it's all splitting as it approaches my area. I see the sun and an orange glow to my NW. It's a pretty sight, but I'd rather see some rain.
