June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[Ptarmigan]

Already tired of this disgusting humidity. Is it Fall yet? I'm ready for some SEC Football!

Temps so far in June are only slightly above normal - the first time we've seen any above-normal monthly average temps since last September. June is only just starting though. May still end up below normal temperature-wise.

It's still 2 weeks until the START of summer. At least 3 more months of this beautiful warm weather! Next cold front probably arrives around the last week of September.

Cold fronts can come in the summer, albeit rare. Houston sees more month of 32 degrees than 100 degree weather. 32 degree can be seen between October to April, while 100 degree is from June to September.

[BlueJay]

Good luck to your son redneckweather!

Thanks for your post Ptarmigan. I will appreciate the warm weather even more knowing that it doesn't last as many months as the cold!

I can report 0.03 inches of rain action in my backyard today!

The "score" for June 2014 so far is:

WET and wild -2

HIGH AND DRY - 6

[Paul Robison]

Good luck to your son redneckweather!

Thanks for your post Ptarmigan. I will appreciate the warm weather even more knowing that it doesn't last as many months as the cold!

I can report 0.03 inches of rain action in my backyard today!

The "score" for June 2014 so far is:

WET and wild -2

HIGH AND DRY - 6

Think again, Blue Jay. Latest NWS AFD spells trouble (captial T):

00
FXUS64 KHGX 082328
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HARD TO TIME
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND GENERATE PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS PORTION OF OUR AREA. HAVE VCSH UP NORTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS DUE TO CURRENT ACTIVITY. REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. GOING WITH VCSH TOMORROW MORNING...
THEN VCTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TIMING COULD END UP BEING
WAY OFF IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z 4KM NCEP WRF VERIFIED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE TX
NICELY TODAY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE HEADING NNE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS INTO N TX & PANHANDLE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS A DECENT BET IN ASSOCIATION W/ DIGGING S/W,
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, JET. REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX MAY APPROACH N
PARTS OF SE TX TOWARD MORNING. EXACTLY HOW THE WX PLAYS OUT
BETWEEN MON MORNING AND TUE AFTN CAN GO SEVERAL WAYS BUT HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT IT`LL EVENTUALLY BECOME MESOSCALE DRIVEN - IN WHICH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SINGLE MODEL AT THIS POINT HAS THINGS PEGGED
IS QUITE LOW.

FOR EXAMPLE:

1. WILL THE REMNANTS OF TONIGHTS CONVECTION CRUISE THRU THE AREA
DURING THE DAY - THEREBY STABILIZING THE ATMOS AHEAD OF THE
POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF MON NIGHT?

2. OR WILL THE OUTFLOW(S) EVENTUALLY FIZZLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE
CWA IN THE MORNING, SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THEN GET A SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION MON NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF SLIDES INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH?

3. SHOULD THE CONVECTION MOVE THRU IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS EARLY TUE
MORNING, WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT TSTM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION
W/ FCST STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE TUE AFTN (I-10/HWY
59 CORRIDOR)?

CURRENT GUESS WOULD BE SOMETHING CLOSER TO #2, BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
JUST BROADBRUSHED 30-60% POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO FURTHER TWEAK AS THINGS EVOLVE. DID MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE ACROSS N 2/3 TUE WITH FCST 1500-2500
J/KG CAPES, -6 TO -8 LI`S & LFQ OF JET & NOTABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
(PARTICULARLY NE PARTS).

UPPER TROF SHOULD PULL AWAY LATE TUE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD WASHOUT ON WED. H5 RIDGE OUT OF MEXICO & NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD THEN BE THE OVERALL WX PATTERN DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK. TODAY`S MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ACTIVE NW FLOW COMPARED TO YDAYS RUNS SO THREW SOME 20%`ERS BACK
INTO THE FCST AS A PLACE HOLDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PASSING UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. 47



Hate to go into drama queen mode, but it sounds like we're going to take a real beating tomorrow and tuesday. Stay tuned, please.

[Katdaddy]

As the Houston-Galveston AFD states, a challenging forecast today and tomorrow regarding the timing and location of convection across SE TX. SPC slight risk across a large part of TX today. A line of strong storms pushing SE across NTX this morning should enter northern portions of SE TX later this morning.

[wxman57]

Of course, I did some more house painting yesterday. Last time I touched up the front porch we got 10" of rain the following week. Fortunately, the paint will be completely dry before the rain reaches Houston this time.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-091630-
GRIMES TX-TRINITY TX-BURLESON TX-MADISON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-
HOUSTON TX-POLK TX-WALKER TX-BRAZOS TX-WASHINGTON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 958 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO 7
MILES EAST OF BREMOND TO NEAR CEDAR PARK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THEY
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN 1030 AM AND 1130 AM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...HUNTSVILLE...NAVASOTA...CROCKETT...
MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...APPLE SPRINGS...AUSTONIO...TRINITY...
GRAPELAND...SOMERVILLE...GROVETON...LOVELADY...SNOOK...RIVERSIDE...
BEDIAS...KURTEN...KENNARD AND LATEXO.

[BlueJay]

Enjoying some rain action right now!

0.01 inches so far today, So...

WET & Wild - 3
High & Dry - 6

Hopefully there is more to come

[Rip76]

The 'ole Pearland split...

Looks like it may miss, I can't tell.

[djmike]

This will be a miracle if it holds together through the BPT area over my home! The deluge of storms two weeks ago missed my home every single disturbance pass. Only got 0.03"! This line looks impressive and Im hopeful, but I have learned not to hold my breath. Looks to be slowing down a little and weaking some. (A little reverse psychology attempt...)

[srainhoutx]

The line is slowing down as the 850 mb front is well N and W of SE Texas. As HGX has mentioned, a stalled outflow boundary across the area could be difficult to forecast and will be dependent upon meso feature. Additional storms may develop over night as the boundary hangs up across our Region.

[Texaspirate11]

Will it? Wont it?
Models are all mixed up
Our NWS seems to be throwing their hands up
Whatever.
May come, may not.....
I know my friends in San Antonio enjoyed a nice storm late morning....
will it? wont it get here?

Waiting..................

[BlueJay]

WET AND WILD IMBY at the moment! WOW!

[JamieP]

The 'ole Pearland split...

Looks like it may miss, I can't tell.

idk Rip, that line moving into Ft. Bend county looks pretty solid. It looks like it might hold up and move through Northern Brazoira / SE Houston area near drive time.....

[Rip76]

Sprinkler time.

[Texaspirate11]

Spit and holla by the bay, so far.

[Texaspirate11]

RAIN BUST BY BAY!

[srainhoutx]

.73 inches of rain today here in NW Harris County.

[BlueJay]

I hate to boast but 0.32 inches today IMBY.

Let's do this again tomorrow!

[jasons2k]

Spent a couple of days on Galveston and today at Schlitterbahn, and came home to 1.21". It felt like summer on the island.

[Ptarmigan]

Good luck to your son redneckweather!

Thanks for your post Ptarmigan. I will appreciate the warm weather even more knowing that it doesn't last as many months as the cold!

I can report 0.03 inches of rain action in my backyard today!

The "score" for June 2014 so far is:

WET and wild -2

HIGH AND DRY - 6

Earliest 32°F
October 20, 1989

Latest 32°F
April 10, 1973

Earliest 90°F
February 20, 1986

Latest 90°F
October 29, 1991

Earliest 100°F
June 2, 2011

Latest 100°F
September 27, 2005

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