June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[djjordan]

**** Take Cover Now**** **** Multiple areas of rotation noted ****

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1141 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 4 DIFFERENT THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. ONE STORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PLUM GROVE...A SECOND 10 MILES WEST OF DAYTON...A THIRD 8 MILES
SOUTH OF CLEVELAND...AND A FOURTH 7 MILES EAST OF CLEVELAND. ALL
CELLS WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...PLUM GROVE...KENEFICK...NORTH CLEVELAND...ROMAYOR AND
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

*** 2nd Tornado Warning issued for central Liberty County ***

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1152 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HARDIN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARDIN AND MOSS HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[djjordan]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
LIBERTY COUNTY...

AT 1158 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 2 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADOS. ONE STORM BETWEEN CLEVELAND AND TARKINGTON
PRAIRIE AND ANOTHER 8 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF DAYTON...MOVING NORTH
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...PLUM GROVE...KENEFICK...NORTH CLEVELAND...ROMAYOR AND
TARKINGTON PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[srainhoutx]

The overall trend via the guidance suggest daily shower and storm chance continue throughout the weekend. The shear axis responsible for this week’s rain events should weaken as a sub-tropical Ridge temporarily builds in from the E allowing for more isolated sea/bay breeze storms on Monday as we end June. July is quickly approaching along with a busy 4th of July long weekend Holiday period with many activities planned, so perhaps someone would like to start a July thread as it appears rain and storm chance could increase once again off the Gulf as an inverted trough/TUTT low moves W across the Gulf from Florida next week.

Folks, we try very hard to offer a place that is fun and factual for weather discussions. Sometimes we have issues that pop up and we do our best to deal with them for the betterment of our weather Community. It often is not easy because we have always had a good neighbor policy as well as attempt to make our Community a place that folks can learn and just chat about weather without ‘drama’. All the moderators work very hard around here for nothing and give of their time as they can to promote a fun and friendly environment for everyone as well as our longtime members that post and those that offer tremendous support and words of encouragement across the weather board world. We have a tremendous amount of folks all across our Gulf Coast Region and beyond that follow our discussions. Many of those folks are very connected throughout the weather community be they professional meteorologist, weather enthusiasts, or just folks that want to know what the weather has in store beyond the daily weather highlights. Many times there are things going on behind the scenes that no one will know of. It is my hope that we can focus on what this weather community was built upon way back in the early days of 2001-2002 and continue to offer a friendly, active, factual weather board that we ALL can be proud of. Now… back to the weather.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/27/14 1801Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1745Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LIX...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS SE TX/SRN LA NEXT SEVERAL HRS
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1750-2250Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ALREADY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE TX/SW LA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
A QUICK 2-3" IN AN HR. INCREASING CONCERN OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING N FROM GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS
GRADUALLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN TX/WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITHIN THE LAST
HR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO PROPAGATE NWD TOWARDS TO COASTLINES
OF SE TX/SW LA WITH NEW CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO INITIATE. GOES CI
ALGORITHM DOES SUGGEST POSSIBLE TO LIKELY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD/ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ATTM OBJECTIVE
SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOISTURE HAS A STRONG MAX LOCATED ALONG THE SW
LA COAST. GIVEN THE STRONG SRLY 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF 2.0"+ PWS AND
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THINKING THIS STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HRS...FAVORING REPEAT
CELL ACTIVITY.

NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS WITH SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS FROM NEAR BPT TO ARA WITH NRN EXTENT AROUND ACP.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 2-4"/HR MAY POSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES.

[BlueJay]

srain said:

Folks, we try very hard to offer a place that is fun and factual for weather discussions. Sometimes we have issues that pop up and we do our best to deal with them for the betterment of our weather Community. It often is not easy because we have always had a good neighbor policy as well as attempt to make our Community a place that folks can learn and just chat about weather without ‘drama’. All the moderators work very hard around here for nothing and give of their time as they can to promote a fun and friendly environment for everyone as well as our longtime members that post and those that offer tremendous support and words of encouragement across the weather board world. We have a tremendous amount of folks all across our Gulf Coast Region and beyond that follow our discussions. Many of those folks are very connected throughout the weather community be they professional meteorologist, weather enthusiasts, or just folks that want to know what the weather has in store beyond the daily weather highlights. Many times there are things going on behind the scenes that no one will know of. It is my hope that we can focus on what this weather community was built upon way back in the early days of 2001-2002 and continue to offer a friendly, active, factual weather board that we ALL can be proud of. Now… back to the weather.


Thank you very much for this srain!

Although I finally took the plunge and joined as a poster in March of this year, I have been reading and enjoying this Weather Forum as a "guest" since just after Hurricane Ike. I thought I had lost this site, my favorite weather source, sometime in 2010 but then found it again - likely because of mainly your work, srain. It is obvious that this forum is a class act and I do appreciate all of the time and effort that the administrators and moderators dedicate to it to insure that it stays that way. You have all taught me a lot and I will continue to learn. Thank you very much!

And, as you said, now... back to the weather.

[redneckweather]

I come back from vacation and have come back to good news! First off, I got 2.5" of rain while I was gone. Secondly, no more reading through posts where I person carries on a conversation with themselves amongst pointless endless drivel. Wow!

Carry on and let it rain.

[ticka1]

thanks srainhoutx for all you and the moderators do for this board! thank you.

back to the weather.

[jojotheidiotclown]

You rain lovers are going to hate it when the mosquitoes and brutal humidity come to crush your spirits.

It's been way too long without sun. Bring back summer.

[Paul Robison]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE ONE MORE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (NOW
HUGGING THE COAST OF E CNTL MEXICO) MOVE INTO THE EASTERN 2/3 OF
THE AREA ON SAT. SAME DRILL AS PREVIOUS DAYS - INCREASING CELL
DEVELOPMENT ONCE WE HEAT INTO THE MID 80S. AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
OUT A BIT AND RIDGE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF GULF STARTS EXPANDING
WESTWARD CLOSER TO US NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH GENERALLY FLAT/WEAK
RIDGING AT H5. DAYTIME HEATING/SEABREEZE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET AN
ISO SHRA OR TWO GOING EACH DAY SO MAINTAINED TYPICAL LOW DIURNAL
SUMMERTIME POPS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS POINTING TOWARD AN ERLY WAVE
AND/OR INVERTED TROF MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM AND IT`S TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF WE MIGHT GET ANY INCREASED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ON ITS NRN PERIPHERY GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 47


Question #1: What locations are in the "eastern 2/3 of the area? Are storms more likely in this quadrant?
Question #2: Could someone please be a little more specific about this TUTT low expected to move across the gulf from florida?

[Rip76]

It's been raining mostly all day here in 77089.

[srainhoutx]

It's been raining mostly all day here in 77089.

Overall most folks have done well with this weeks trough/shear axis across the Region. Not bad considering what we have experienced for the last several years. I expect the drought update to be much improved across our Region and frankly will not be surprised to see a very similar pattern into next month. It is good to be back into a 'typical' Texas summertime weather regime. I had almost forgot what they were like.

[mckinne63]

It's been raining mostly all day here in 77089.

Overall most folks have done well with this weeks trough/shear axis across the Region. Not bad considering what we have experienced for the last several years. I expect the drought update to be much improved across our Region and frankly will not be surprised to see a very similar pattern into next month. It is good to be back into a 'typical' Texas summertime weather regime. I had almost forgot what they were like.

Yes! Lawn is happy, plants are happy, trees are happy. It has been awhile! If my memory is correct, I think Ike changed our pattern. Our Bradford Pear tree bloomed early that year, than has not really bloomed since.

We have only received a small sprinkle today here in Stafford. Currently I can hear some activity in the background, but thus far doesn't look like it's heading this way.

[Texaspirate11]

In the past couple of days, we have had over 3 inches of rain in the bay area and an EF0 tornado....
exciting summer for sure.

[BlueJay]

.55 inches in my backyard today.

Wet & wild - 10
Hot & dry - 18

Each month this year has offered a plethora of weather to talk about and marvel!

[Ptarmigan]

Overall most folks have done well with this weeks trough/shear axis across the Region. Not bad considering what we have experienced for the last several years. I expect the drought update to be much improved across our Region and frankly will not be surprised to see a very similar pattern into next month. It is good to be back into a 'typical' Texas summertime weather regime. I had almost forgot what they were like.

The past June 2011, 2012, and 2013 had 100 degree days. This June has had none.

[srainhoutx]

Great to see the 7 day rainfall totals included areas across the Coastal Counties that sorely need the beneficial rains.

[TxLady]

Got a really good rain/thunderstorm, yesterday. Everything is so beautiful and green! I am really appreciating this summer, after the previous few years. We were so close to the wildfires, those years, that I kept all my important papers in totes, ready to go. We also use individual water wells, here. The water tables were getting so low, it was scary. So the drought conditions were worrisome from a lot of different angles. The ONLY downside to our "almost" daily rainfall...is the grass needs cutting twice a week. When you live in the "country", we're talking a LOT of grass to cut! But, I'll take cutting grass over wildfires, everyday, all day!

[BlueJay]

Overall most folks have done well with this weeks trough/shear axis across the Region. Not bad considering what we have experienced for the last several years. I expect the drought update to be much improved across our Region and frankly will not be surprised to see a very similar pattern into next month. It is good to be back into a 'typical' Texas summertime weather regime. I had almost forgot what they were like.

The past June 2011, 2012, and 2013 had 100 degree days. This June has had none.

June 2014 has been a delightful weather surprise. My question was would it be a wet and wild month or turn out to be high and dry. I kept "score" of the days in June that my backyard had a measurable amount of rain and those that did not. The final score is
High & dry - 20
Wet & wild - 10

My rain gauge shows a total amount of 2.95 inches, which is not as much as some received this month but I am grateful.

As Ptarmigan points out, our temps were not as hot as the past 3 years.

I guess I would call it wet and wild as it has certainly been different than what we have had in the past few years.

It has been a great weather month...on to July 2014....

[Texaspirate11]

FIRST ONE OF 2014

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Ptarmigan]

June 2014 has been a delightful weather surprise. My question was would it be a wet and wild month or turn out to be high and dry. I kept "score" of the days in June that my backyard had a measurable amount of rain and those that did not. The final score is
High & dry - 20
Wet & wild - 10

My rain gauge shows a total amount of 2.95 inches, which is not as much as some received this month but I am grateful.

As Ptarmigan points out, our temps were not as hot as the past 3 years.

I guess I would call it wet and wild as it has certainly been different than what we have had in the past few years.

It has been a great weather month...on to July 2014....

I suspect the reason for those June is due to a cool PDO.