June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

[unome]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=FTM

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NOUS64 KHGX 031234
FTMHGX
Message Date: Jun 03 2014 12:38:20

THE KHGX RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE STARTING AT 1400Z.

RB

Edit to add: HOU Hobby radar link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/?rid=HOU ... es=10&fs=0

[BlueJay]

No pop up showers for me today.

Today's score IMBY is:

Hot & DRY - 2

Wet & wild - 1

[BlueJay]

Thanks for the reports!

Time to set up my soaker hose again.

[srainhoutx]

Early next week could be wet as a short wave crosses Texas embedded in a NW flow aloft along the eastern flank of the Upper Ridge as it shifts W over the Baja. There is some indication that our Bay of Campeche area of disturbed weather may linger and additional moisture may get pulled N toward the NW/Central Gulf Coast. As long as that BoC/EPAC monsoonal trough keeps convection going, all eyes will be looking S. Many will remember 13 years ago a weak system spun up 80 miles S of Galveston and brought 5 days of torrential rainfall and widespread flooding as well as claimed 22 lives and is still known as the costliest Tropical Storm in US history. Allison caused over 5 Billion dollars in damage across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances increase beginning Sunday and extend into next week. The morning 7 Day QPF suggests 3-6 inches of rain across portions of Texas and Oklahoma and a general 1-3 inches across SE Texas into Louisiana as a weakness develops and the Upper Ridge is anchored across California and the Desert SW. The Bay of Campeche disturbance continues to fester and is likely going to be around for the next 5 to 7 days as the monsoonal gyre continues to keep the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Bay of Campeche very disturbed.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1227 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUN 08 2014 - 12Z THU JUN 12 2014


...CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE...

THE MODELS JUST DO NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO AGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC
PARTICULARS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE
BEEN RELYING ON THE STEADY EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, AND SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE FROM IT NOW.
A BROAD TROUGH IS INDICATED OVER THE NATION EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS, THE WESTERN RIDGE MAY DELIVER
THE GREATEST IN THE FORM OF EXTREMELY HOT, DRY CONDITIONS FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF CALIFORNIA--SAVE MODEST STRETCHES OF THE IMMEDIATE
PACIFIC COAST. TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE QUITE COMMON IN THE
GOLDEN STATE, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +20F IN THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGH HEAT WILL
EXTEND INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY, BUT THE ANOMALIES THERE
WILL BE LESS THAN HALF OF THOSE IN THE CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL
VALLEY. THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD ESCAPE THE HEAT WAVE, WITH A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MARITIME POLAR AIR.

THE OTHER AREA OF HEIGHTENED WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE SEVERAL DAYS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS COULD SEND RAINFALL TOTALS UP ANOTHER 3-6".

CISCO

[jasons2k]

Looks more and more like the Central Plains, and extending into Texas, is getting enough spring rains to prevent a non-stop death ridge this summer. Read a column from JB and he thinks Texas will be cooler and wetter than the CPC forecasts.

[Rip76]

Looks a little funnel cloud-ish out there today.

[kayci]

Where Rip?

[jasons2k]

GFS is now further South and West with the rainfall for next week, more aligned with the Euro. Some of the blogs out there have taken note....and more rain on the drought parade.

[srainhoutx]

Just had a nice little downpour in NW Harris County. Certainly not expect since Friday and Saturday the forecast had us high and dry under subsidence from the upper ridge.

[jasons2k]

Some of the models were showing this yesterday, but nobody seemed to believe them. And last night the KPRC 'model' (a version of the HRRR?) had lots of rain painted over the area this afternoon, and Frank just quickly glossed over it and said 'an outside chance of an isolated sea breeze shower' like no big deal and went straight to the 7-day.

[BlueJay]

So far we have missed out on the pop up showers for a while - although it does currently look a bit cloudy outside for the moment. I won't give up hope yet for a bit of the rain action. (Then I will update the "score" for this month. WOOT!)

[Paul Robison]

Are any of the models incidating VERY strong thunderstorms coming into the area with this trough. Should residents expect to be treated to the same heavy rains/high winds that OK and parts of N. Texas are experiencing now?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Already tired of this disgusting humidity. Is it Fall yet? I'm ready for some SEC Football!

[ticka1]

Already tired of this disgusting humidity. Is it Fall yet? I'm ready for some SEC Football!

AMEN - we need a cold front!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances begin to increase later today as the pesky upper ridge that finally brought summer like temperatures begins to flatten and retreat W. A rather strong upper air disturbance with a sagging surface boundary near the Red River should allow for strong storms to develop again tonight and slowly sink S. Rain chances increase further on Monday and the SPC has placed portions of Central and SE Texas within a Slight Risk for severe storms. The main threat appears to be damaging straight line winds and large hail. Some locations that are under those storms could see heavy rainfall. Tomorrow evening could be rather stormy into the evening hours as a complex of storms develop further S as a robust upper low approaches.

[redneckweather]

Hell no to the cold! Did y'all forget how miserable this past winter was? From Halloween to darn near the beginning of May it was COLD! I love walking outside with nothing but my flip flops and underwear on.

On a good note, the panhandle and north Texas have been getting some awesome rain since yesterday! Boy howdy, the panhandle needed this rain in a very bad way.

Do any of y'all golf? My son has been dragging my family around the country the past 4 years playing for the #4 select baseball team in the nation. During the summer last year, he just completely got ate up with golf (picked it up on his own...I don't play). As of today, he consistently shoots in the mid 70's as a 13 yr old! Compare that to me rarely breaking 100 in a round of golf! lol He plays his first HGA (Houston Golf Association) tournament tomorrow. I sure hope it doesn't get rained out!

[wxman57]

Already tired of this disgusting humidity. Is it Fall yet? I'm ready for some SEC Football!

Temps so far in June are only slightly above normal - the first time we've seen any above-normal monthly average temps since last September. June is only just starting though. May still end up below normal temperature-wise.

It's still 2 weeks until the START of summer. At least 3 more months of this beautiful warm weather! Next cold front probably arrives around the last week of September.

[srainhoutx]

This area may be our MCS for the afternoon and evening. The current track would tend to favor a potential threat into Central and SE Texas if an organized storm complex develops.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL TX...FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081943Z - 082215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SVR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL SELYS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO THE S OF ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION COVERING THE TX S PLAINS/NRN PERMIAN BASIN. THE AIR MASS
S OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPERIENCING MODEST DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
POCKETS OF INSOLATION SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THE
GENERALLY FLAT NATURE OF THE CU FIELD PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...RECENT SIGNS OF CLEARING/MIXING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN
NOTED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...WITH
INSOLATION-ENHANCED SFC HEATING SUPPORTING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS AT THE ERN EDGE OF 8-9-C/KM
SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE TX TRANS-PECOS...WITH
INTENSE CONVECTION RECENTLY HAVING DEVELOPED INVOF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL BOLSTER
SOLENOIDS OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP EWD FROM TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-55 KT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS SPREADING EWD. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
ENHANCING SRH WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR RISK MAY BE SUPPRESSED...ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[Heat Miser]

Storms firing up in our northern areas. I love the heat. I can tolerate it much more than the cold. The cold penetrates me to the core.
HGA is a great association. I was a member as a youth and loved my summers playing golf and tournaments all over the Houston area. Playing courses I would have never played otherwise.