May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[jasons2k]

Still a donut over us. We must be cursed or something.

[jeff]

Starting to wonder if the global models have overdone the PW. 12Z soundings were pretty dry (.65 PW at LCH) and BRO was only a little over an inch. Meso guidance shows a lot out west tonight and again Friday, but little makes it into SE TX. Could possibly be that the dry air in the 850-500 mb layer never really moistens. Seeing the latest meso guidance is concerning however with respect to overall rain chances and QPF. Then again maybe some surprise in the meso scale if storms can really get their act together out west and make a run for the area in the form of a well defined MCS with a cold pool. Hopefully still enough to wet the fine fuels and negate the fire danger for 3-5 days.

[Katdaddy]

The radar looks promising this morning. Hoping for some well needed rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

The radar looks promising this morning. Hoping for some well needed rainfall.

That it does. It certainly looks better than what any of the models depicted and one could sense the frustration from the HGX forecasters with their aviation update issued around 6:30AM. The good news is heavy rainfall has been ongoing overnight from Abilene to Wichita Falls on N and E into Ardmore and Alda, OK. Our EPAC tropical disturbance 90E tightened up a bit before nearing landfall and may have actually been a depression and the Western trough continues to dig into Northern Mexico tapping the rich Pacific moisture drawing it NE into Texas.







Edit to add: Latest early morning visible imagery suggest some storms are beginning to develop across our Western areas where the beginning of higher cloud tops can be seen. That tends to suggest the cap may break later today and that dry layer around 850 mb could begin to saturate. Fingers crossed!

[jasons2k]

I hope so. The overnight forecast discussion is the most depressing thing I have read since 2011.

[redneckweather]

Looks like all the convection is moving off to the north of us...just a tad too far to the west. The good news is, my ranch in Madison County is getting a good soaking.

[jasons2k]

Hi Res NAM shows quite a gradient across Harris County. It ranges from .10" in the east to 2" in the NW. The radar composite shows a big blowup to our west, but it just sorta skirts the Houston metro area in each frame. It's SO close....and SO frustrating.

[jasons2k]

True story.

I work with a guy who moved here from Chicago, back in November. He's a nice guy, but he likes to crack jokes about our Texas tall tales. Weather is a frequent topic (of course).

So this past Monday, the topic of rain this Friday comes up. He couldn't believe the rain may be heavy, and some people started to bring-up the upcoming tropical and rainy season, etc. That's about the time I walked-up. And he said "You know what guys, I just don't believe you. I keep hearing about all these floods and heat waves and ever since I moved here in November the weather has been pleasant. All I've seen is you guys shut down the whole city over one snowflake and scream about how horrible it is. Are you sure these aren't just a bunch of tall Texan tales you are saying just to scare me?"

And I said "Well, dude, I think this Friday you may finally get your first taste of some Texas weather craziness."

And he said "yeah, I'll believe it when I see it".

I wonder what he's going to say the next time this topic comes up.

[jasons2k]

Look what is downstream from metro HOU, sprinkles and light showers....

Yep, and somewhere a Voodoo doll is laughing "look, I got you again, suckers"

[Kludge]

What bust? 1-1/2" here so far.

Sorry... wasn't going to post, but remembered that my friend in Westbury always posted every drop back in 2011.

[BlueJay]

Glad to see some of our neighbors getting a bit of this rain action.

We are still dry...dry...dry...

[srainhoutx]

What bust? 1-1/2" here so far.

But we must remember SE TX stops around Veterans Memorial and Bedias doesn't add a drop of runoff to our area lakes.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
RE-INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC DRYLINE AND UPPER TROUGH
BOTH CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM UP AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND COULD
THEREFORE LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME AND/OR MAINTAIN
SEVERE LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS RANGE
FROM 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGHER PWS RESIDE). DUE TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT THE HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE A WELCOME SIGHT...BUT THE CONCERN
LIES WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL RESULTING IN QUICK RUNOFF.ONGOING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

[Kludge]

What bust? 1-1/2" here so far.

But we must remember SE TX stops around Veterans Memorial and Bedias doesn't add a drop of runoff to our area lakes.

Oh, contrair...

We are in the Trinity River watershed, which feeds lake Houston. Maybe your tap water doesn't come from there, but WxDude57's does.. so... your welcome.

http://www.beg.utexas.edu/UTopia/images ... _basin.pdf

[srainhoutx]

Forgive me for "copy and pasting" Ed and offering nothing worth discussing on the KHOU Regional Weather Forum. Ed for Admin!



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

TXZ163-164-177>179-081730-
TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-HOUSTON TX-POLK TX-WALKER TX-
1202 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HOUSTON...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER...WEST CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY AND
NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1201 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER TRINITY...OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRINITY...GROVETON...RIVERSIDE...SEBASTOPOL AND PENNINGTON.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/08/14 1649Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1637Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SATELLITE TRENDS FOR DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALREADY ONGOING OVER
PORTIONS OF NE TX THIS MORNING FROM JUST N OF ACT EXTENDING NE TO VIC OF
PRX. RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND LIKELY RUNNING BETWEEN 1.0-2.0"/HR.
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT 85H LLJ WITH BEST
MID LEVEL FORCING SHIFTING NE OF THE AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE LIFTING
NE INTO THE N PLAINS. PATTERN WAS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO MADDOX SYNOPTIC
TYPE PATTERN AND WAS SUGGESTIVE TO THE THREAT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION
ON THE SHORT TERM AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO DEEP MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT LIFTING NE FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE E PACIFIC
AND ALSO FROM THE W GULF OF MEXICO. BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF ONGOING THREAT AREA.
OF NOTE WAS THAT THE MORNING RAOB OUT OF CRP INDICATED PW VALUES WHICH
WHICH WERE IN THE TOP TEN OF THE MAY UA CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1700-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AGREE WITH RECENTLY ISSUED FFGMPD IN THAT THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND REGENERATING CONVECTION N/NE OF 85H THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS OVER S TX AND THE NEAR OFFSHORE WATERS. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD
ONLY BE SLOW EWARD MOVEMENT TO LINE UNTIL BETTER HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BEGIN TO ROTATE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGREE WITH WPC IN LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF PERHAPS 3.0-4.0" ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF CONTINUED TRAINING.

[jasons2k]

Man, no email from Jeff today. No updates from Wxman. Where did all the pro mets go?

[Kludge]

Lots of new activity firing in the Hill Country. There's hope for you yet, Ed. Or at least for your lawn.

/snark

2.24" here now.

Signed,

Almost Nobody

[jasons2k]

I wish, but I keep watching everything to our SW just fizzle as it moves this way. You can see the dryline retreating already on DFW radar too.

[Kludge]

New stuff firing east of the RGV with Houston in its trajectory if it holds together. At least the cap is vanquished.

[Cromagnum]

I knew I shouldn't have fertilized the yard yesterday. Not a single drop at my house south of Pearland, and the 0.10" max we expect is pretty damned sad.

[jeff]

HRRR wants to bring some of C TX activity into SE TX, but I have my doubts. Main forcing is across C into NE TX where favorable jet stream splitting is found. Having a hard time getting things going locally without any surface focus nor surface heating. I would not say the C TX activity is organized enough to bring any sort of cold pool toward the area to help maintain convection into 2.0+ inch PW air mass. Likely some more scattered light showers. Not sure Friday will end up much better on the rainfall side of things...a lot hinges on track of shortwaves coming out of the WSW/SW, but things are just not in phase and again no surface boundary. ECMWF showing that surface trough was always somewhat suspect...and sure enough it has not verified.