May: IAH Does Not Reach 90 During May. 1970 Mark Achieved

[Ptarmigan]

Very concerned about the drought. Only saving grace is a developing El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

I think drought and moisture maps may be behind reality. The NWS and Jeff's emails allude to drying grasses and possible future impacts to trees, etc. I can report that the reality here in Montgomery County is much worse than those maps imply. The pine trees are turning from yellow to now an orange and the massive needle drop is about to start. It's looks like 2011 again.

Keep in mind though that agriculture related droughts vary the most. It doesn't take much to make or fix that type of drought. I know that multiple types of droughts and their effects go into the drought monitor outputs.

It is no surprise we are paying more at the grocery store.

[Andrew]

Random thought: I was in Austin 3 weeks ago, and it was greener there than here in H-town. Oh, and the wildflowers/bluebonnets were at their peak along 290 and just amazing.

They also got close to half an inch of rain there compared to only .02 at KIAH.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

[Ptarmigan]

May 19, 2000 is the wettest calendar day on record at Intercontinental Airport. A mesoscale convection system (MCS) developed and dump heavy rain. That same system went over Liberty County and dumped 19 inches of rain! 18 inches of it fell in 5 hours! This occurred during La Nina and a drought. There were severe weather outbreaks in April and May 2000.

However, the wettest 24 hours regardless of calendar day is May 17-18, 1989. Massive thunderstorms from Central Texas stalled over Southeast Texas. A total of 10.36 inches of rain fell. Spring saw 15 inches of rain.

As a result, May 1989 and 2000 are among the wettest May on record. The wettest occurred in 1907 and 1914.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_may
http://www.texasalmanac.com/topics/envi ... ther-2000s
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_may

[srainhoutx]

The global guidance is suggesting another potent trough developing out West. There is some indication that an EPAC Tropical disturbance may develop and slowly head N and E around the same time that a robust MJO pulse pushes E across the Pacific and the sub tropical jet becomes active. If such a solution were to verify, we could see some rainfall enhancement as deep tropical moisture from the Pacific is pulled NE into Texas as the trough slowly advances our way.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to offer hope that the dry pattern may break late next week with a deep Western trough and possibly a cut off meandering upper low as well as an EPAC tropical disturbance moving N just W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. the GFS is suggesting deep tropical moisture streaming N from the Bay of Campeche as well from the Pacific and the chance of another severe weather episode across the Plains as all the ingredients combine beginning next Thursday and extending into the weekend. Fingers Crossed!


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY N-NE WINDS AT 20-25
KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS OBSERVED BY
SHIP A8NQ6 NEAR 14.5N95W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE
MEXICO...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING
AND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S.
MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND END BY LATE SUN MORNING. WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW FROM LAND...ALLOWING THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS
TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 14 FEET.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
08N108W LIES WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR IT WILL BE LIFTED BY THE VERTICAL
MOTION INDUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT AROUND MID WEEK...CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO DEEPEN.

The attachment 05032014 Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif is no longer available

[Andrew]

The 12z gfs would be just what the doctor ordered for most of the state (including locally). We have a mid level trough extending across most of the central plains with added energy staying out west. Orientation of the trough would indicate that a multi-day rain event could be possible with a nice line of showers coming through once everything ejects east. Definitely a cautiously optimistic sign.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

[unome]

a sight for sore eyes

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day47_6hrly.php

[Katdaddy]

While we have another perfect weather day across TX its time for a reminder that 2014 Hurricane Season is not far away with the ATL Hurricane Season beginning June 1st. The forecast of El Nino will lead to less tropical cyclones but it only takes one. Severe weather threat also returns to the Central Plains by Thursday.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated QPF for days 4 to 5 and 6 to 7 suggest the Western trough will not be in any hurry to shift E of Texas. The latest ensemble and operational guidance continues to advertise a potential active period late this coming week with several embedded short waves and the mean trough axis digging rather far S into Northern Mexico as it stays W of the Lone Star State. The tropical convection W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to deepen along the monsoonal trough and it appears there are a couple of areas of vorticity associated along the ITCZ/monsoonal trough. The general feeling is that as these areas of vorticty or cyclonic spin merge, a broad surface low will develop mid week and begin to slowly head NE toward the Mexican Pacific Coast. I'd watch for a wave of low pressure to develop somewhere along Coastal Texas or Northwestern Gulf of Mexico next weekend as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central Texas providing a potential axis or lifting mechanism for a widespread rainfall event. While it is still a bit far out in time, the indications leaning toward a multi day rainfall event that would be welcomed across our drought parched Region. Fingers crossed!

The attachment 05042014 20Z Day 6 to 7 QPF 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif is no longer available

[BlueJay]

May the fourth be with you all.

I hope the rain comes and forces all of those UH graduation parties indoors this weekend!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro/CMC and UKMet held serve and are much 'wetter' than the operational 12Z GFS. The ensembles appear to be converging on a solution that would make us all a bit happy with a general 1 to 3 inches of rain with some isolated higher totals possible. The GFS was too far offshore with the Coastal disturbance while the other global models are suggesting a slower moving trough and stalling frontal boundary across the Region that may extend into late Sunday/early Monday. Regardless, if the HPC is somewhat correct this would be the best chance of widespread rain we've seen in months around these parts. Keep those fingers crossed...

[wxman57]

Sure was a nice biking weekend. Highs of 88 both days - about perfect. Not too cool, not too warm. The only negative was the wind.

12Z GFS indicates about 1/4" of rain Thursday night/Friday. As has been stated, 12Z Euro is much wetter (1-3" of rain).

[Ptarmigan]

Sure was a nice biking weekend. Highs of 88 both days - about perfect. Not too cool, not too warm. The only negative was the wind.

12Z GFS indicates about 1/4" of rain Thursday night/Friday. As has been stated, 12Z Euro is much wetter (1-3" of rain).

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zmay5.gif

As a compromise, I forecast 1.63 inches of rain.

[srainhoutx]

The evolving pattern continues to advertise more rain chances beyond the late week timeframe. The 00Z Global ensembles are suggesting a general Western trough will remain in place and additional EPAC tropical moisture being tapped into early next week. The MJO appears to continue migrating E across the Pacific until at least mid May to around the 20th. There is also a Kelvin wave assisting with tropical convection across the Eastern Pacific. The longer range guidance suggest another tropical wave may develop later next week as well.

[jasons2k]

Did I read this right? Wouldn't we be EAST of the trough axis?

THE GROUP VELOCITY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO BE SLOWER THAN THE PHASE VELOCITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL
ENERGY THOUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

[srainhoutx]

Did I read this right? Wouldn't we be EAST of the trough axis?

THE GROUP VELOCITY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO BE SLOWER THAN THE PHASE VELOCITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL
ENERGY THOUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

It appears that is what the guidance is suggesting. What I like is the persistent Western trough with a tap connected to the Eastern Pacific. The convection W of Mexico along the monsoonal trough continues to fire as a broad surface low continues to spin. The GFS suggests yet another surface low developing next week that would keep our PW's rather high (1.8 to near 2.0 and uncapped) and multiple embedded upper air disturbances riding NE across the Southern half of Texas.

The attachment 05062014 1330Z EPAC HPIR.jpg is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

Since this broad area of EPAC tropical disturbed weather will have some influence on our late week rain event, I'll post it here...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE DATE AND TIME.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[unome]

WPC's 7-day looking like lower totals for me now :(

I can't take it if it fizzles...

[jasons2k]

So the HPC shows heavier rains on both sides of us, and we're caught in this wedge of dryness in the middle. What else is new?