April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May

[srainhoutx]

The warm front is retreating N and currently is near Coastal Texas and Louisiana. Storms are firing quickly well N of the warm front and are elevated and may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across portions of Eastern Texas and Western/Central Louisiana. The Watch currently does not include Harris County as well as Metro Austin and Dallas/Ft Worth. That said the Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended a bit further W into our Northern Areas if training storms develop this morning as the potent upper level disturbance approaches from New Mexico. Over running moisture is streaming N from the Gulf to our W across the Middle Texas Coast. It appears a Coastal Low may be developing near Matagorda Bay as well.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch effective until 200pm for the northern ½ of SE T.

Slow moving upper level trough over New Mexico is spreading increasing lift across both a surface warm front over the middle and upper TX coastal waters and a 850mb front located from near Austin to Liberty. Elevated severe thunderstorms producing large hail have developed in the last hour from north of Huntsville ESE to San Jacinto County. Surface low pressure will be re-developing ESE from the Big Bend region toward the middle TX coast by early this afternoon and helping to surge the low level warm front northward to along a line from Victoria to Tomball to Livingston. Air mass south of this front is very moist with dewpoints in the lowe 70’s.

For the next 3-6 hours expect elevated thunderstorms above the near surface cool layer to continue to develop mainly along and north of HWY 105 and move northward and northeast out of the area. Think the best severe threat for large hail will be north of HWY 105 and really north of a line from Madisonville to Lake Livingston. South of this line scattered showers, light rain, drizzle, and sea fog will spread northward from the Gulf. Offshore platforms indicate sea fog bank has once again formed as low 70 degree dewpoints spread across mid to upper 60 degree water temperatures. Winds are fairly gusty over the Gulf waters and should only increase today as the surface low develops east of Corpus Christi, so not overly confident that sea fog will be widespread.

This afternoon:

Surface warm front moving northward will bring a warm sector moist and increasingly unstable air mass into the southeastern ½ of the region. Low clouds and some fog will likely prevent much surface heating of the warm sector and jet dynamics aloft look only marginally favorable for good lift. SE TX lies near the eastern edge of warm mid level temperatures being advecting eastward from the higher terrain of NE MX (capping). Looking at both the HRRR and TX TECH meso modeling really does not show much development in the warm sector this afternoon as the surface low moves nearly directly over the area. Appears surface temperatures will need to warm into the mid to upper 70’s to break the capping inversion and this is likely a bit of a stretch given the overcast and light rain/drizzle that will be found in the warm sector. SPC forecasters are a little more aggressive with the threat for surface based severe weather in the warm sector this afternoon…but some many events recently have seen similar set ups with no convective results.

The concern is that if the cap does break favorable low level shear and moderate amounts of instability would support all severe threats south of the warm front (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Low level shear will be maximized along the warm frontal boundary and such boundaries are notorious for producing supercells with tornadoes. Will have to watch trends and the warm front very closely this afternoon for convective development.

Heavy Rainfall:

Moisture levels will rapidly increase today, but best forcing and training cells look to be focused over far east TX into LA and MS where 3-7 inches will be common. Most of SE TX will be at the far SW edge of a more significant flood/flash flood threat over LA today and this threat has shifted more northward and northeast overnight. Would not be surprised to see some 1-2 inch totals quickly in the stronger storms and the best area for this will be across those northern counties this morning where elevated convection is showing some signs of banding and brief training:



 

 




 

 

[jasons2k]

That would be really something if the surface low goes almost directly overhead and we get nothing. What else does it take to make some rain around here, geez?

[jasons2k]

Interesting morning discussion. Especially this:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

IF...AND ITS A BIG IF...WE CAN GET ENOUGH HEATING THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

Lots of satellite/radar watching today.

[jasons2k]

Judging by surface obs, the low has moved from just west of Corpus to NW of Victoria. That means it's tracking NNE. The front extends eastward from there to just north of Wharton to about Pearland & then offshore.

[djmike]

We cant even get rain even when all the ingriedients come together! So tired of this "northern counties" or "north/northeast of here" or "hwy 105 northward". This better not be a sign of things to come.

[mckinne63]

What a bust here in Stafford! Had some drizzle, than actually had a real rain shower that stopped after about 2 minutes.

[BlueJay]

Radar seems to indicate that somebody is getting rain. How about you Kludge?
Just drove through some drizzle (yeah!) but nothing measurable...yet.

[Kludge]

Radar seems to indicate that somebody is getting rain. How about you Kludge?
Just drove through some drizzle (yeah!) but nothing measurable...yet.

Oh heck yeah...several nice downpours today. 0.32" since 5 AM. And as I write this, some training seems to be setting up, so maybe a good bit more is on the way.

[BlueJay]

I agree Ed. I was reviewing the April 2011 discussions and recalling that the drought of 2011 was becoming a reality for us at that time. Except that we had extremely high temps and low humidity/dew points the capping and just missed showers seem to be the same now as in April 2011.

Happy to hear you got some rain action Kludge!

[jasons2k]

You can see the low on radar now. It's about to trek across northern Brazoria county, headed east. The warm sector is small and will get pushed offshore pretty fast.

So far, not much here. Thunder with heavy drops in the wee hours and some sprinkles/mist since then. The pavement is wet but the shaded areas of my lawn are still bone dry.

[BlueJay]

Mine too Jasons. I can report 0.04 inches of rain today so far.

[Katdaddy]

Picked up .21" in League City. Tornado Watch issued for extreme SE TX and SW LA until 11PM tonight. This threat area is E of the Houston-Galveston area. A few isolated showers will moving away from SE TX over the next few hours. Tornado Watch issued for extreme SE TX and SW LA until 11PM tonight. This threat area is E of the Houston-Galveston area. A few isolated showers will moving away from SE TX over the next few hours.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 64
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

[Heat Miser]

Where's the wash out they were touting on TV?
Maybe they just said a chance with the bulk hitting north/northeast Texas?

[mckinne63]

Guess if we can't get rain, the cooler temps are nice.

[jasons2k]

My sprinklers are running. That pretty much says it.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting to see thunderstorms tonight despite this clear weather. Hopefully it will rain tonight. This could be a night time thunderstorm event, which has been a darth of them lately.

[Ptarmigan]

Drought now affecting two thirds of Texas
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas ... cmpid=hpfc

[BlueJay]

Drought now affecting two thirds of Texas
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas ... cmpid=hpfc

This is concerning. I think there is some similarities in early April 2011 (our drought year) and April 2014. I will do my best to conserve water and pray for rain. We will see.

[Katdaddy]

Wind Advisory hoisted for SE TX tomorrow:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
858 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A REINFORCING COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
BACKING HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH A COOLING ATMOSPHERE...WILL
MAKE FOR A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND DAY. STRENGTHENED MID LEVEL
NORTHERLIES MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL TRANSLATE TO SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF OVER 20 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0017.140408T1800Z-140409T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
858 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY.

* EVENT...STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO
25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH.

* TIMING...FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING ON MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
ROADS. SMALL LIMBS STRIPPED FROM TREES...LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS
TOSSED ABOUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...ESPECIALLY
WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS