April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May

[Andrew]

While it is early, models have been indicating that towards the end of the weekend into early next week we could be looking at another severe event across the central United States. As a cutoff low/shortwave tracks east it looks like we could have a large warm sector covering most of the area. Something to keep an eye on as we head into the late part of the week.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Base of cold upper level trough moving across the area this morning helping to spark a few high based showers from College Station to near Conroe. These showers are moving quickly SE and may affect Houston shortly.

Cold front has pushed off the coast overnight and with quickly clearing skies this morning gusty NW winds will develop by mid morning. Wind speeds will average 15-25mph by early afternoon with gusts at or above 30-35mph as mixing of higher winds from aloft transpires over the region.

Very little change of this nice pattern through at least Friday with high pressure nearly overhead for the next 48-72 hours. Low dewpoints and clear skies will make for cool (below average) morning lows and sunny skies will result in a quick warm up into the mid to upper 70’s. The surface high begins to move eastward on Friday with onshore winds returning and dewpoints starting to increase. 60 degree dewpoints look not to return until the weekend and with them more low clouds will be likely. Think sea fog issues will be less likely as water temperatures have warmed into the mid 60’s. Next front is penciled in for late Sunday, but capping looks to be an issue yet again, so will keep rain chances low and the scattered scheme at the moment.

Fire Weather:
Elevated fire weather conditions will exists today mainly west of I-45. Gusty NW winds of 15-25mph with higher gusts and afternoon RH falling to 20-30% will create fire weather conditions. Luckily most areas north of I-10 saw rain Friday and again on Sunday which has likely helped wet fine fuels and the spring green up is in full swing. South of I-10 rainfall has been significantly lacking especially SW of a line from Columbus to Sugar Land to Galveston and think this is where any more significant fire weather concerns will be found this afternoon. Predicted RH values do not require a Red Flag Warning at this time.

[BlueJay]

We missed out on the rain chance last night. Oh well. Jeff's morning update posted by Srain sounds lovely. With daylight saving time going on that means I may have time to do some hand watering in the evening and enjoy the cool temps and low dew points.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not sure we will see anything like 2011 across Texas with a developing El Nino which may be rather strong and if I recall correctly we were already well into the 90's this time back in 2011 in April. We may see some upper 30's across our Northern areas tonight and we certainly have not been all that warm to date so far this year. Also the guidance is slowly converging on a solution that may bring showers and storms across the Lone Star State on Sunday into Monday as the next potent upper air disturbance approaches with yet another strong front.

[Andrew]

While rain has been limited as of late, everyone needs to remember that in general SE Texas has done a lot better than most parts of central and North Texas. Not to mention most mid-range/long range data indicate an above average rain chance for most of the area. So I wouldn't go overboard yet on the comparisons to 2011, especially when the pattern is expected to be so much different.

[Andrew]

While rain has been limited as of late, everyone needs to remember that in general SE Texas has done a lot better than most parts of central and North Texas. Not to mention most mid-range/long range data indicate an above average rain chance for most of the area. So I wouldn't go overboard yet on the comparisons to 2011, especially when the pattern is expected to be so much different.

I'll try not to go overboard, but between a 1997 type warm ENSO developing (well, we could get a cold core to tropical development like Danny, if we're really lucky) and what appears to be a tendecy for extreme heat and dry weather to positively feed back, even if the core of the intense subtropical ridge is closer to Wichita Falls then Houston, we'll still be South of the Westerlies and North of the Easterlies.

I agree, and while it is quite obvious that heat and dry weather is a positive feedback mechanism, I have my doubts that this summer will be so dry. Its going to be hard to get a strong ridge overhead if we have a ENSO pattern towards the end of the summer. Subtropical jet is going to be fairly active if that is the case which really disrupts any long-term building of heights across the area. Still a long ways away though.

[jasons2k]

I can report that the pine trees up here in The Woodlands area are starting to get that yellow-orange coloring on the needles. It seems the shortleaf pines are doing the worst so far. There are a lot of shortleafs that were planted along the Woodlands Pkwy flyover/main entrance into the Woodlands, and almost all of them look sick. It's been much more noticeable in the last week or so.

[Andrew]

Happy Winters and warm ENSOs often go together, but that could be six oor more months away.

Eh could be a lot sooner than that...

[Ptarmigan]

While rain has been limited as of late, everyone needs to remember that in general SE Texas has done a lot better than most parts of central and North Texas. Not to mention most mid-range/long range data indicate an above average rain chance for most of the area. So I wouldn't go overboard yet on the comparisons to 2011, especially when the pattern is expected to be so much different.

Very concerning due to a winter that was drier than normal due to near La Nina conditions. The cooler weather is from a positive East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and warm pool in the Northeast Pacific. The cooler weather made Gulf of Mexico cooler, which is less favorable for thunderstorms as cooler air from the water holds less moisture.

I do not think this anything like 2011 as we are seeing El Nino develop and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) warming. 2011 had La Nina go well into 2012. Interestingly, Winter 2011-2012 was very wet as the La Nina was a weak one.

I'll try not to go overboard, but between a 1997 type warm ENSO developing (well, we could get a cold core to tropical development like Danny, if we're really lucky) and what appears to be a tendecy for extreme heat and dry weather to positively feed back, even if the core of the intense subtropical ridge is closer to Wichita Falls then Houston, we'll still be South of the Westerlies and North of the Easterlies.

1997 had a very wet spring and dry summer. 2002 had a dry spring and wet summer. Both had wet fall and winter. Summer 1997 did not have a 100 degree day at Intercontinental Airport, the last time that ever happened.

[Kludge]

[quote="Ed Mahmoud]

I feel a little like Arizona Desert with the caps...[/quote]

GOVERNOR PERRY AND ERCOT WILL BE FLYING OVER YBY THIS WEEKEND IN BLACK HELICOPTERS. I WILL LOAN YOU MY FOIL CAP. BE SAFE.

[Andrew]

GFS continues to paint a possible severe event across the central part of the State into the Arkansas area as we head into Sunday. It looks like the H5 cut off low that will progress east through the Arizona/ New Mexico area will open up as it rotates around the base of a trough on Sunday. While the GFS and Euro have differed on phasing with the cold front, the 00z gfs showed a nice solution for possible severe weather across the state on Sunday. Lower level winds on Sunday veering from the SE could provide nice WAA and directional shear across the area. Early indications show 6km shear in the 40-50kt range with capping being the biggest uncertainty (what a surprise). Winds from the SE at the surface and not the south like previous events will increase the effects from cold shelf waters. Near isothermal profiles at 850mb look possible but i suspect models are being conservative with temperatures. The gfs shows surface temps around 72-73 across SE Texas in the evening on Sunday which seems low even with a solid cloud deck. It looks like the triple point will setup across NW Texas (like last event) but progression of the cold front will likely be a lot faster eventually undercutting the dryline. While possibilities for discrete cells look to be farther north, I wouldn't be surprised to see a line of storms come through the area with the cold front.

Still a lot of disparities between models and timing will of course be the biggest issue. Also I remind everyone to put this event into perspective as we are still 4-5 days out. Still, it is something I would keep an eye on as we head into the weekend for at least the chance of a line of storms coming through the area.

[Andrew]

Don't think it made it to 60ºF here Sunday.

0Z GFS was drier than 0Z Euro, so I am trusting the GFS now.

KIAH reached 66 on Sunday which was in part due to the fog/mist that coated the area.

[BlueJay]

Ptarmigan wrote on April 8, 2011:

We reached our first 90 degree this year at KIAH.
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIAH.html

Earliest since 1996. The average date is May 6th from 1921 to 2011.

by Andrew » Wed Apr 09, 2014 9:21 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Don't think it made it to 60ºF here Sunday.

0Z GFS was drier than 0Z Euro, so I am trusting the GFS now.


KIAH reached 66 on Sunday which was in part due to the fog/mist that coated the area.


Yes. We are much cooler on April 9, 2014 than we were on April 9, 2011. Thank goodness!
But the rest of the picture (no rain) is eerily familiar.

[Andrew]

12z GFS came in stronger and more potent for central Texas. Better support for upper level shear along with more south low level winds could really reduce capping across the area. The sheared shortwave looks to take on a negative tilt across the central part of the state further increasing directional shear. Suspect models are still underestimating the density of cold air resulting in faster progression south. Steep mid level lapse rates and sweeping hodographs raise an eyebrow especially with a much smaller inversion than previously expected.

[jasons2k]

Call me Debbie Downer or whatever...but I've just lost hope. Another round this weekend 'mainly north of College Station to Livingston'. It's always the same. Time to face reality -- there's going to be another round of dead trees even if The Nino tries to save us this summer. It will be too late. Who am I kidding - it already is too late - this has been going-on for years now and the trees can't get a sustained break to recover. It's depressing to the point I almost don't enjoy this hobby of watching weather any more. All it is is bad news, day after day, and it's never-ending.

About five or six years ago I got one of those Stratus CoCoRas rain gauges with the overflow bucket. I was so excited that I no longer had to worry about my old tru-check gauge overflowing if we had more than a few inches. In that whole span, I can probably count on one hand the number of times I've had to empty the overflow bucket. That's just not normal for Houston, Texas.

All I empty out now is dust, cobwebs, and pine needles. There is no joy left. What's the point of a hobby if all it does is make me depressed and angry?

[MESOMAN]

Call me Debbie Downer or whatever...but I've just lost hope. Another round this weekend 'mainly north of College Station to Livingston'. It's always the same. Time to face reality -- there's going to be another round of dead trees even if The Nino tries to save us this summer. It will be too late. Who am I kidding - it already is too late - this has been going-on for years now and the trees can't get a sustained break to recover. It's depressing to the point I almost don't enjoy this hobby of watching weather any more. All it is is bad news, day after day, and it's never-ending.

About five or six years ago I got one of those Stratus CoCoRas rain gauges with the overflow bucket. I was so excited that I no longer had to worry about my old tru-check gauge overflowing if we had more than a few inches. In that whole span, I can probably count on one hand the number of times I've had to empty the overflow bucket. That's just not normal for Houston, Texas.

All I empty out now is dust, cobwebs, and pine needles. There is no joy left. What's the point of a hobby if all it does is make me depressed and angry?

I couldn't agree with you more. I love weather watching and tracking but the last 5 yrs here have just been depressing. I am just south of where you are and the rain and storms always go north and south of me. My mom lives in San Jacinto county and has had a lot more rain than me the past few years. I should maybe drop weather as a hobby and take up golf since the weather is so nice around here.

[BlueJay]

Jasons and MESOMAN - don't give up the ship!

For years I have been able to learn quite a bit about the weather from this forum and have enjoyed reading the posts. I have always depended on the reports posted, especially from my neighbors like the two of you. So for that, I say thanks to all who post on this Weather Forum-through good times and bad.

[MESOMAN]

Thanks BlueJay! I'll try to stay in the game.

[BlueJay]

My weather station claims it has hit 87F in my backyard today. Could that be right?

[Kludge]

Call me Debbie Downer or whatever...but I've just lost hope. Another round this weekend 'mainly north of College Station to Livingston'. It's always the same. Time to face reality -- there's going to be another round of dead trees even if The Nino tries to save us this summer. It will be too late. Who am I kidding - it already is too late - this has been going-on for years now and the trees can't get a sustained break to recover. It's depressing to the point I almost don't enjoy this hobby of watching weather any more. All it is is bad news, day after day, and it's never-ending.

About five or six years ago I got one of those Stratus CoCoRas rain gauges with the overflow bucket. I was so excited that I no longer had to worry about my old tru-check gauge overflowing if we had more than a few inches. In that whole span, I can probably count on one hand the number of times I've had to empty the overflow bucket. That's just not normal for Houston, Texas.

All I empty out now is dust, cobwebs, and pine needles. There is no joy left. What's the point of a hobby if all it does is make me depressed and angry?

.
.
"Hello...you've reached the Suicide Hotline...please hold..."

One of my Weather Heroes, right behind Neil Frank, was Harold Taft up in Fort Worth on WFAA. He always reminded us that Texas droughts always end with a flood (not a series of gentle soaking rainfalls). We must be careful what we wish for.

I feel your pain. Reference my 2011 posts. I kept all my household pistols unloaded.

Aside from God, my Family, my Vocation.. weather is my life. When it was taken away, a MAJOR void occurred. But my faith (see #1 above) kept me afloat.

I'm at 8.5" this year, and the Pacific be a-warmin. Go look at '57, '72' '82, and '97 before you jump off that roof. I expect an average year here, and bet (save this post!) you will be above average at your place.

We all enjoy your participation on this board. Feel free to vent. That's what we're here for. Don't lose that passion. Traditional Houston weather always returns with a vengeance.