April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May
Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:10 pm
Will April showers bring May flowers to Texas this year? I really hope so!
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GFS shows some pretty impressive parameters across SE Texas come Wednesday and Thursday. Depending on where the dryline sets up we could see some interesting weather.Ed Mahmoud wrote:^^12Z GFS a little less depressing for rain. 12Z Euro might have a Thursday afternoon MCS or squall line, and then again Saturday, and maybe a slow moving rainy system Sunday into Monday morning.
Euro ensembles like Sunday as well, almost half an inch of precip Sunday before 1 pm alone, and more after.
EDIT TO ADD:
Verbatim, new 0Z GFS missed my house Thursday, but has a decent shower, maybe a storm, in the Northern suburbs. GFS not as excited on weekend system as 12Z Euro
Hopefully that will hold up. Usually when El Nino is developing, it tends to be wetter in the spring.srainhoutx wrote:The capping inversion appears to keep our rain/storm chances on Thursday somewhat limited, but the Euro/GFS solutions are suggesting a stalled boundary draped across the Region this weekend with a potent Southern tracking short wave (upper air disturbance) offering a fairly widespread chance of rainfall and perhaps some severe storms as we get into the Sunday/Monday time frame. Fingers crossed for those 2 inch rainfall amounts.
I do not agree with this at all. One CRP and LCH are closer to the Gulf than IAH and certainly for the Northern Half of the Region. U of H may offer a bit better solution for inside the 610 Loop, but I still believe that A & M offers bit more realistic depiction although not perfect to what we can expect from an upper air sounding locally ~vs~ CRP or LCH.Ed Mahmoud wrote:HGX mentions an Aggie sounding today. CLL is close to useless for predicting storms in Houston, Almost as far as LCH, albeit in another direction.
Pretty obvious that they (HGX) are being realistic and expect no severe weather except far Northern suburbs.