April: Sunny and Dry Heading Into May

[BlueJay]

Bravo kludge! Well said.

[srainhoutx]

Great post Kludge. One thing we must remember we are coming off a very unusual winter that we had not seen around this part of the world in several decades. We quickly transitioned last November to pattern that literally had us flip to a very active pattern near Thanksgiving that brought sleet the Tuesday after that Holiday and continued right into the first of March. The last big 'rain event' for my area came in the form of an Ice Storm that dropped an inch + of freezing rain. The Gulf water temps are slowly recovering closer to home. I've talked to several folks that had taken cruises out of Galveston to the Western Caribbean and they ALL stated that it was very warm even entering the Gulf from the Yucatan to about half way into the Gulf were it would be cloudy/foggy and cool water temps. It's no wonder we've been experiencing sea fog and dreary weather when those South winds have developed with an onshore flow.

Now for the Sunday into the early part of next week period, the 06Z guidance is suggesting the cap erodes enough and a squall line pushes across the Region with yet again another strong cold front. It's been many a year since I've seen these strong breezy chilly front still pushing this far S so late in the year. A secondary piece of upper air energy is suggest to arrive Monday night into Tuesday behind the frontal passage which is suggesting near zero 850mb temperature overhead, so some elevated storms with small hail may be an issue. Just as the Austin area saw storms early in the week behind the last strong front that brought gusty winds, hail that covered the ground and heavy rainfall, we may see our turn early next week. Fingers crossed that we can get some rain. The pollen is brutal this year and we need to wash that pollen away to give those of us that are suffering some relief.

[Ptarmigan]

.
.
"Hello...you've reached the Suicide Hotline...please hold..."

One of my Weather Heroes, right behind Neil Frank, was Harold Taft up in Fort Worth on WFAA. He always reminded us that Texas droughts always end with a flood (not a series of gentle soaking rainfalls). We must be careful what we wish for.

I feel your pain. Reference my 2011 posts. I kept all my household pistols unloaded.

Aside from God, my Family, my Vocation.. weather is my life. When it was taken away, a MAJOR void occurred. But my faith (see #1 above) kept me afloat.

I'm at 8.5" this year, and the Pacific be a-warmin. Go look at '57, '72' '82, and '97 before you jump off that roof. I expect an average year here, and bet (save this post!) you will be above average at your place.

We all enjoy your participation on this board. Feel free to vent. That's what we're here for. Don't lose that passion. Traditional Houston weather always returns with a vengeance.

If we have a dry spring during a developing El Nino, summer usually ends up being wet. If not, than the consolation prize is that fall and winter are very wet.

[Ptarmigan]

Great post Kludge. One thing we must remember we are coming off a very unusual winter that we had not seen around this part of the world in several decades. We quickly transitioned last November to pattern that literally had us flip to a very active pattern near Thanksgiving that brought sleet the Tuesday after that Holiday and continued right into the first of March. The last big 'rain event' for my area came in the form of an Ice Storm that dropped an inch + of freezing rain. The Gulf water temps are slowly recovering closer to home. I've talked to several folks that had taken cruises out of Galveston to the Western Caribbean and they ALL stated that it was very warm even entering the Gulf from the Yucatan to about half way into the Gulf were it would be cloudy/foggy and cool water temps. It's no wonder we've been experiencing sea fog and dreary weather when those South winds have developed with an onshore flow.

Now for the Sunday into the early part of next week period, the 06Z guidance is suggesting the cap erodes enough and a squall line pushes across the Region with yet again another strong cold front. It's been many a year since I've seen these strong breezy chilly front still pushing this far S so late in the year. A secondary piece of upper air energy is suggest to arrive Monday night into Tuesday behind the frontal passage which is suggesting near zero 850mb temperature overhead, so some elevated storms with small hail may be an issue. Just as the Austin area saw storms early in the week behind the last strong front that brought gusty winds, hail that covered the ground and heavy rainfall, we may see our turn early next week. Fingers crossed that we can get some rain. The pollen is brutal this year and we need to wash that pollen away to give those of us that are suffering some relief.

The atmospheric pattern is similar to the late 1970s. The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is a big factor for why this winter has been cold. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been positive, which allows troughing over Greenland. A negative NAO means colder for that area. Also, there is an area of unusually warm water off the northwest coast of Canada and south of Alaska. It helps foster ridging, that allows cold air to come down south and give Western US the severe drought.

[srainhoutx]

The upper low currently off the California Coast should begin to trek E and shear out across Texas on Sunday. Meanwhile another short wave begins to dive SE from the Pacific NW and usher in an unusually strong late season cold front on Sunday into Monday. Our best chance of rain appears to be along and just behind the actual sharp cold front when there could be some elevated storms possible during the late night hours of Sunday into Monday. The bigger weather story will likely be the much below normal temperatures across most of our Region. This late season storm system is expect to drop heavy snow into the Central and Southern Rockies and may extend into the Texas Panhandle and portions of the Southern/Central Plains on NE. It does not appear that we are in jeopardy of seeing any freezing temperature down here in SE Texas, but areas closer to the Northern Hill Country and just N of Dallas/Ft Worth may well see some near or just below 30 F early morning readings on Tuesday morning as a strong cold High Pressure cell settles across the Region. After Monday, the pattern does not indicate much of any rain until possibly later in the month of April.

[txflagwaver]

Easter week usually brings the last chilly air for the season...

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Impressive cold front will cross the area Monday bringing near record low temperatures.

This afternoon:
Warm air advection continues to pump low level moisture into the area from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Surface dewpoints have risen into the upper 60’s to near 70 over much of the region along with a thick deck of low clouds and some fog. Short wave currently over the Big Bend region will move across N TX this afternoon. SW flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere has advected a warm capping later eastward from the higher terrain of northern MX across much of SE TX this morning and this is confirmed on the CRP and DRT soundings showing a large warn nose in the 850-700mb layer. Main thrust of lift with the incoming short wave will be aimed north of SE TX and suspect this will be another event where the capping wins out and any storms that develop will be up north mainly along and north of a College Station to Lake Livingston line. Would not be surprised to see a few showers across a larger portion of the area…but rainfall amounts will be light.

Tonight-Monday:
Strong late season cold front will cross the region between 600am and noon Monday. Short term models show the capping inversion weakening as a secondary short wave brings lift and mid level cooling to the region near the time the surface cold front arrives. This should help weaken the capping inversion enough to allow at least a line of showers and thunderstorms along the front. Short term meso models agree with this and show showers/thunderstorms developing early Monday morning either along or just behind the frontal boundary as it crosses the region. Instability looks to be enough to include a slight risk of severe weather for hail and wind damage, but think this threat is on the low side given the time of day that the system will be crossing the region.

Strong north winds will develop behind the front and temperatures will quickly fall into the 50’s and even the 40’s by late Monday afternoon. It will definitely feel much colder Monday afternoon/evening compared to the last few days.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
850mb 0C line pushes close to our northern counties by Tuesday morning. Think winds will stay up enough to keep temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s on Tuesday morning, but those usual cold spots could drop into the low to mid 30’s if winds weaken just before sunrise. Tuesday will be chilly by mid April standards with highs only in the low to mid 60’s. Clear skies and calm winds Tuesday night will result in a cold Wednesday morning. Guidance currently showing upper 30’s north of I-10, but we could get into the mid 30’s with some frost potential given the near clam winds. Could see a few of the colder location drop to or below freezing on Wednesday morning. Will have to keep a close watch on the temperature trends as a freeze this time of year would be fairly significant for this region.

Late week-next weekend:
GFS shows a potent looking system moving into the plain on Thursday and the ECMWF model has started to trend in that direction some over the past few runs. Not sure moisture will have returned by Thursday, but may need to add low rain chances on Thursday. Weak front looks to push into the area with this storm system and linger into next weekend. GFS has a fairly active pattern over TX for next weekend, but I have seen this time and time again this spring only to have the capping inversion squash any “real” chances of significant rainfall.

[mcheer23]

Hoping for some rain....

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Significant late season cold front heading toward the area this morning.

Near record lows possible Tuesday and Wednesday with some locations near freezing.

Strong winds of 20-35mph likely this afternoon with temperatures falling into the 50’s.

Impressive cold front is currently approaching the region with College Station reporting 74 and Waco 51. A broken line of scattered showers/thunderstorms has develop along the frontal boundary from NW of Austin to the Louisiana border and is moving southward. 00Z soundings from DRT and CRP still showed strong aping in place and while lift from an incoming shortwave should help to erode the capping this morning think the severe threat is overall low (but not zero) for the area. Surface front may very well plow rapidly across the area this morning with a thin line of showers followed by elevated thunderstorms for a period from late morning through early evening ahead of the 850mb front. Should any storms become surface based ahead of the surface front severe hail or wind damage could occur and this would most likely be near the coast or east of I-45 where morning surface heating may help to weaken the capping inversion.

Big news will be the large temperature fall and the strong winds as a late season cold air mass drops down the plains and into TX. Temperatures will fall 20-25 degrees with the frontal passage from the 70’s into the 50’s and possibly even the 40’s north of HWY 105 this afternoon under impressive cold air advection. Strong winds of 20-35mph will drive wind chills into the 40’s over nearly all of the region. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon and this evening with coastal waters Gale Warnings issued.

Next item is potential low temperatures and possible freeze for portions of the area both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. With strong winds helping keep the low level air mass mixed early Tuesday do not think much of the region will fall to freezing, but record lows in the mid and upper 30’s appear threatened. Of bigger concern is Wednesday morning with clear skies, calm winds, and low dewpoints the potential for freezing conditions is possible especially north of HWY 105 and in the normally cold areas along with record or near record low temperatures. Latest GFS guidance for Conroe is now showing a low of 32 on Wednesday morning with mid to upper 30’s likely widespread across the region. Given the spring green up is well underway and sensitive vegetation has been planted near freezing or freezing temperatures will require a freeze warning possibly for parts of the area.

Lovelady Tornado:
NWS will survey the damage associated with a tornado in Houston County yesterday afternoon today. Houston County Sherriff officer video clearly showed a condensation funnel in contact with the ground as the storm moved across the small town of Lovelady. At least 8 structures were damaged including Lovelady High School and 3 mobile homes were completely destroyed resulting in 1 serious injury. Damage images suggest EF0 or possibly EF1 wind speeds. NWS team will determine EF scale rating and path diameter and length today.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SERN TX AND PART OF WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141242Z - 141445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ADVANCING SWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO SERN TX AND WRN PARTS
OF LA.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM HAD DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEAST TX AT THE INTERSECTION OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDING SWWD FROM NRN LA. THIS STORM PRODUCED
0.88 INCH DIAMETER HAIL CLOSE TO 12Z IN HOUSTON COUNTY TX.
ADDITIONAL STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT SWWD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE
COLD FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EACH ADVANCE SWD INTO A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TO EAST TX
INTO LA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS. GIVEN THE STEADY SWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARIES...STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDERCUT...BECOMING ELEVATED N OF THE
BOUNDARIES.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/14/2014


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

The cold front just passed my location in NW Harris County. All the rain associated with this front appears to be post frontal and we may see some elevated storms with small hail as the disturbance rides ENE from the San Antonio area behind the front.

[jasons2k]

I hope the new convection down south doesn't rob the ongoing activity out to my west. Right now, there isn't much directly downstream to my southwest. It needs to fill-in somehow or I'm going to get trapped in the middle again with not much.

[Andrew]

I hope the new convection down south doesn't rob the ongoing activity out to my west. Right now, there isn't much directly downstream to my southwest. It needs to fill-in somehow or I'm going to get trapped in the middle again with not much.

Things are filling in nicely now across the area. The convective system to the west is slowly moving SE with storms training to the NE. Even in the more moderate rain batches, precip is falling hard and fast. It has been a miserable day so far up here in the College Station area. Temps in the 40's with strong winds sometimes gusting in the 40mph range.

[srainhoutx]

I just had a wind gust to 43 here at the house. Temperature has dropped to 51F with a moderate rain. This front means business.

[Belmer]

Glad to see central and SE TX getting much needed beneficial rain.
GFS keeps wanting to hint at some big rain chances in the coming weeks, though we can take that with a grain of salt for now.

Typical Oklahoma weather up here in Norman. Tornado watch yesterday as a severe storm rolled through producing quarter size hail. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Today? Dropped to about 34 degrees around 10am and was snowing... Windchill in the low 20s. Tonight's low is supposed to get around 24 or so if the skies can clear and these gusty winds can calm down. Plants will go in shock as everything has started to bloom here. Crazy weather, that's for sure!

[BlueJay]

48F in my backyard currently but have received 0.07 inches of much needed rain-more than we have received in over a month.

The winter that will not give up...I'm bringing in my potted hibiscus tonight.

[Andrew]

Not bad for most of the area:

[mckinne63]

I think Stafford is fixing to get dumped on! Yep, here it comes! Hearing rumblings of thunder.

[jasons2k]

.78" here. Not bad considering an inch of rain IMBY would be considered a 2-year flood event.

PS - thanks to all for the kind comments last week. I'm not going anywhere, but felt the need to vent. I do have those days, sometimes. Lack of rain, years at a time, will do that to a gardener.

[BlueJay]

I'm proud to report that we received .30 inches of rain today!

Is anyone going to stay up to see the lunar "blood moon" eclipse tonight?