N. Atl Hurricane Season 2014 Discussions

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Upper TX Coast skies are becoming tropical finally. 11 days until the official beginning of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Are you ready? It only takes one.
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srainhoutx
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I would keep an eye on the tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands. There has been some indication via the Global operational and ensemble guidance that conditions could become a bit more favorable for development once this wave enters the Western Caribbean Sea in about 7-10 days.

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srainhoutx
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Jeff offers some insight into Hurricane Season 2014:

Today marks the start of the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season which will run through November 30th.

 

The current NOAA forecast calls for:

 

8-13 named storms (tropical storms)

3-6 hurricanes

1-2 major hurricanes

 

The average for the past 30 years has been 12/8/3 so the current forecast is suggestive of a near normal to slightly below normal season activity wise in the Atlantic basin. With that said there is no way to determine where nor when a tropical cyclone may form and what particular part of the US coastline may be impacts if any at this time range. Seasonal forecast prediction of the number of named storms and hurricanes have no skill in predicting landfall locations.

 

2014 Factors:

 

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures:

For the past several years sea surface temperatures in the (mean development region “MDR”) or that region between Africa and the eastern Caribbean Sea have been slightly to well above normal. Current sea surface data in this region suggest sea surface temperatures are running near to slightly below normal in this region. This suggest slightly less surface ocean energy for tropical cyclone formation in the deep tropics.

 

Atlantic Atmospheric Instability:

A possible major culprit of the 2013 season “bust” has been the unusually large amounts of stable air across the deep tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean and especially in that MDR region. It is not understood what may be causing such vast amounts of stability, but it is clearly having an effect on the development and intensification of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones as shown in 2013. Some research suggest that widespread drought conditions in northern South America in 2013 may have produced a stable air layer downstream of the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, but this is more a hunch than strongly supported by evidence at this moment. Instability indicators in the Atlantic basin continue to run below normal and once again this may point toward a less active hurricane season.

 

Pacific ENSO Phase:

The biggest factor to consider it the potential formation of warm phase ENSO “El Nino” in the central and eastern tropical Pacific over the next few months. Sea surface and sub-sea surface temperatures are warming in this region suggesting El Nino is potentially developing. The record breaking category 5 Hurricane Amanda in the EPAC in May also suggest a large pool of deep warm water is developing off the South America and central American coast. El Nino tends to produce strong amounts of downstream wind shear over the tropical Atlantic basin and the Caribbean Sea during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). The main questions at this point are how quickly does El Nino develop and how strong does it become. A slower developing El Nino would point to a delayed onset of hostile upper level winds and possibly a slightly more active Atlantic basin while a more rapid onset early in the season (next 1-2 months) would likely hamper peak season development.

 

While El Nino tends to result in hostile deep tropic conditions research suggest that the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic (off the SE US coast) it not greatly affected by the increased wind shear and in fact these areas tend to be the formation “hot spots” in El Nino years usually with development tied to decaying frontal boundaries. This indicates the potential for close in development and in fact in El Nino summers tend to have roughly a 60% chance of a US landfalling hurricane on the Gulf coast. So while the overall numbers may be lower and the threat for powerful deep tropics hurricanes lessened the threat for Gulf coast landfall is slightly higher in El Nino years.   

 

While the atmospheric factors in place point toward a slightly below average season “it only takes one impact” on our coast to make it bad. 1992 and 1983 were both El Nino seasons with 1992 producing the devastating Hurricane Andrew and 1983 producing Hurricane Alicia (1 of only 4 tropical storms that year). Both of those years did not have the first named storms until the middle or end of August.

 

Have your plans developed and in place and ready to implement should a tropical cyclone threaten the TX coast this summer.

 

 
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Update from Jeff:

An elongated trough of low pressure currently extends from the SE US southwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico into the southern Bay of Campeche and is anchored in the eastern Pacific Ocean by Tropical Storm Boris off the Mexican southern coast.

 

TS Boris is drifting northward toward the Mexican coast and should progress inland over southern Mexico over the next 24-48 hours.

 

Global forecast models have been suggesting either energy from TS Boris or a weak surface low pressure system will form on the southern edge of the surface trough over the Bay of Campeche over the next 72-120 hours and drift in place or remain nearly stationary. Current satellite images suggest little to no organization over the Bay of Campeche and strong upper level winds in place which would hamper any near term tropical cyclone formation.

 

This area is favored this time of year for tropical cyclone formation or potentially “cross over” activity from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. Upper level winds are expected to become slightly more favorable for development by this weekend.

 

Currently the National Hurricane Center is giving the area a 20% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.

 
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If something did spin up (weak or a little stronger), I assume most models take this East?
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srainhoutx
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Rip, as I mentioned in the June thread a broad monsoonal gyre with several weak surface lows rotating around a broad area of low pressure seems to be the most likely solution. The worrisome aspect is these early June systems often do not behave as the guidance suggest and this broad surface low gyre could last into next week. The Bay of Campeche tends to offer a lot of forecasting difficulties when a monsoon trough is involved ---vs-- and organized compact surface low. Anywhere from Vera Cruz to Florida will probably want to monitor developments day by day.
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Thank you.
Usually something like this cruises into MX or east.
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srainhoutx
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Rip76 wrote:Thank you.
Usually something like this cruises into MX or east.
Or lifts N as a short wave trough crosses Texas. ;) We still have several days to monitor, but there is some potential for development and RECON has been mentioned to fly down and take a look in a couple of days if conditions warrant.
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Given the current and predicted strong westerly flow aloft across the northern Gulf, if something should spin up down there and move northward it would likely be quickly turned to the NE rather than northward toward Texas.
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Hey Wx and Srain....*please* pardon the question (which I'm sure is the bane of all weather forecasters) but....my family has been saving for two years for our trip to Disney and we're to arrive on June 12th. I would sincerely appreciate any information on this system trekking East towards Florida.....
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Over the weekend the GFS as well as the ensembles have suggested that an area of disturbed weather may develop near the Gulf of Belize. the NW Caribbean Sea as well as the Bay of Campeche into the Gulf of Tehuantepec appear to be the favored areas of any tropical development as the monsoon trough lingers and festers with a broad area of lower pressure across those areas of the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic Basin.
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The tropics are being discussed briefly in this afternoon's Houston-Galveston AFD:

THE 12Z MODELS FROM YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY POINTING TO A POTENT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY TO THE YUCATAN ON TUESDAY AND (THEN MODELS DIVERGE) EITHER STALLING PER GFS IN THE CENTRAL GULF GETTING STRETCHED OUT INTO NRN FL TO BAY OF CAMPECHE OR PUSHING WEST AND INTO TX ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS COMES TO PASS THAT IT REACHES SETX THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY.

Perhaps some additional well needed rainfall along the coastal areas should this tropical wave move toward the TX Coast next week.
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a bit of a mention in the 2am TWO, but nothing on the graphical TWO as of yet

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form off the southeastern coast of
the United States this weekend and linger into early next week.
Some development of this system is possible if it remains over
water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


the 24-thru 72-hr surface forecasts show the low dropping out of S Carolina

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

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Paul Robison

unome wrote:a bit of a mention in the 2am TWO, but nothing on the graphical TWO as of yet

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form off the southeastern coast of
the United States this weekend and linger into early next week.
Some development of this system is possible if it remains over
water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


the 24-thru 72-hr surface forecasts show the low dropping out of S Carolina

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Image

Dear Unome:

Could this low end up being a Gulf storm and a threat to SE TX. if it goes into florida per GFS?
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07202014 2 PM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the
west coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms are currently disorganized, and any development during
the next day or two should be slow to occur. Beyond a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for development while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Brennan


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Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized shower activity several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development, especially by the middle of the week, while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

Image

It is the tropical wave to the far left.
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srainhoutx
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For those that follow twitter, I have been informed that a local forecasting company (ImpactWeather) is rather active via that social media venue...@TropicsWatch
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srainhoutx
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As mentioned in the Main Weather forum August Discussion threat, it appears the Tropical Atlantic particularly the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico may become conducive for tropical development. Easterly waves have been rolling off the African Coast and heading W over the past week. The dust that has plagued the Main Development Region continues to abate and instability is increasing across the Caribbean and the Gulf. A couple of the waves cross the Atlantic have maintained their spin and showers/storms continue to fire along the monsoonal trough located around 10N. RECON has been tasked to investigate an area of disturbed weather late on Thursday if need be. If the are is designated and INVEST, we will start a Topic for that and follow the progress as the days move forward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-animated.gif

Image

Image

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.
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srainhoutx
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A couple of things to watch as we enter September. A robust Kelvin wave is moving E across the Central/Eastern Pacific and the medium to longer range reliable European and GFS are suggesting a tropical disturbance developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and heading NW across the Yucatan potentially ending up in the Western Gulf. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly if we see development, the Global models are suggesting a chance for increased tropical activity in early September in our part of the Atlantic Basin.
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