N. Atl Hurricane Season 2014 Discussions
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Katdaddy
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A weak tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) low is along the Upper TX Coast and at the surface a trough of low pressure off the Upper TX Coast. This area remains disorganized however a burst of convection has developed overnight offshore of the TX and LA coast. The NHC continues to give this area a 10% chance of tropical development over the next 5 day however conditions are not that favorable. The current ongoing trend of convection could be a sign of a little more organization and will be watched.
it up to 20% at 8am
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is now expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days. However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is now expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days. However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
August 28 two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Inc ... 8_2014.pdf
CSU us forecasting below average. Despite MJO in Phase 2, which is most favorable, other factors are involved
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Inc ... 8_2014.pdf
CSU us forecasting below average. Despite MJO in Phase 2, which is most favorable, other factors are involved
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Paul Robison
Would someone please identify the location on this euro 12z chart. Is it SE Texas? I can't tell at this scale.
Strange how the GFS shows nothing.
One final item: Does the Euro veto all other models when it comes to tropical weather forecasting?
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... _2014.html
"The Atlantic hurricane season will officially end November 30, and will be remembered as a relatively quiet season as was predicted. Still, the season afforded NOAA scientists with opportunities to produce new forecast products, showcase successful modeling advancements, and conduct research to benefit future forecasts. "
...
"The Atlantic hurricane season will officially end November 30, and will be remembered as a relatively quiet season as was predicted. Still, the season afforded NOAA scientists with opportunities to produce new forecast products, showcase successful modeling advancements, and conduct research to benefit future forecasts. "
...